Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 140019 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 819 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A major nor`easter will track from south of Nantucket Island to Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning. The cold northwest flow on the back side of the storm will continue over the local area through the end of the week. Drier conditions will try to visit the region Friday night into Saturday, but another disturbance will approach by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 520 DM, 500 mb low with core minimum temps around -40C will drift east-southeast across the region tonight. Areal coverage of snow showers and brief heavy squalls will gradually dissipate early tonight, but shouldn`t completely vanish as another sfc and upper level trough (oriented along an east-west axis) drifts south across the PA/NY border well after midnight. Enhanced low-mid level convergence along and just ahead of this feature should maintain isolated to sctd snow showers across the higher terrain of the north and west. Additional light snow accumulations are expected near the Allegheny Front, while another 1-3 inches is likely across the Laurel Highlands and throughout the Northwest Snowbelt. Across the Central Ridge and Valley Region and Susq Valley, any snow showers early should dissipate to mainly isolated flurries after midnight. wAs a major storm hammers southern New England, we are on the breezy cooler west side of the storm with cyclonic flow and lake effect and upslope snow showers and flurries. Pretty typical winter pattern, even though we are just a few days away from the celestial spring. It will remain breezy and chilly overnight as the storm affecting New England grows in size. Lows in the 20s will average about 3-6 deg cooler than normal. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Snow showers will continue west and north with additional accumulations Wednesday over the Laurels and Northwest mountains. Some areas along and north of Route 6 may exceed 8 inches for this long duration Advisory event. East of the mountains, little if any accumulation is expected, but it will be cold and breezy with a few flurries at times. Highs Wednesday will range from the upper 20s northwest to near 40 southeast, or some 10 to 15 deg colder than normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Persistent blustery northwest flow will keep cold air advection moving into the region through late week. This will allow for well below normal temperatures and scattered snow showers persisting Thu and Fri west and north especially. Couple this with the gusty winds and wind chills every morning will be in the teens through Thursday morning. Conditions will improve late Friday into Saturday with some moderation this weekend as upper- level ridging across the middle of the country builds eastward. Another trof undercutting the ridge may spread a chance of rain or snow showers into central PA Sat night and Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Scattered snow showers are rapidly diminishing as the sun sets and the atmosphere stabilizes. Expect VFR conditions and diminishing wind for much of central Pa the rest of the evening. Focus will then be on an increasingly moist northwest flow associated with the passage of an upper air disturbance, which will produce persistent light snow over the mountains of northern and western Pa late tonight through Wednesday. Latest model soundings support predominantly IFR conditions at KBFD beginning around 08Z and beginning around 12Z at KJST. Downslope WNW winds will favor predominantly VFR conditions over the central and eastern 2/3 of the airspace, with the potential of briefly lower visibilities in passing snow showers Wed afternoon. Winds will diminish a bit this evening, then pick up again early Wednesday with frequent gusts of 25-30kts Wednesday. Snow will taper off and winds will diminish Wed evening, as the upper air disturbance passes east of the region. Outlook... Thu...AM light snow/reduced vsbys likely W Mtns. Fri...AM snow showers/reduced vsbys possible W Mtns. Sat-Sun...No sig wx expected.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ004- 005. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...DeVoir/Ceru AVIATION...Fitzgerald is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.