Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 180249 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1049 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will will swing though the region today and this evening. Developing low pressure in the Mississippi Valley will track east across Pennsylvania Wednesday night and early Thursday, then high pressure will work into the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Showers have all but ended , even in the northwest. Low clouds continue to overspread the region. Temperatures continue to drop and dewpoints remain in the mid to low 20s across central PA. Despite a very cold April to date, the growing season has technically begun over the lower Susq Valley. With lows around freezing or even a few deg colder, we have issued a Freeze Warning for the counties from Franklin east to Lancaster and north to include Dauphin and Lebanon. Elsewhere the overnight lows will average about 25-30 deg.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A brief period of fair weather can be expected for most of Wednesday, as a low amplitude ridge races east. The return of partly to mostly skies will result in milder temperatures, but still below average. Clouds will increasing late in the day, with the chance of showers reaching my far western counties by evening, as yet another shortwave takes aim at PA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A rain snow mix overnight Wednesday from the above-mentioned shortwave will decrease through the morning hours on Thursday. Past Thursday, we foresee a break of dry weather into early next weekend as energy reloads over the southwestern U.S. allowing weak upper ridging to build over the eastern part of the country. Yet another upper low in this busy pattern looks to drop into the deep south toward the end of the period. This may spread some precipitation northward toward our region for the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Snow showers will slowly wind down as we lose the low level forcing and we move past sunset. Tried to time the end of snow to line up with current radar and 4km NAM trends. This will end most of the snow by 03Z except near KBFD where at least VCSH will linger through the night. Winds gusting into the low 30kts at KJST through the early evening as lower elevation sites begin to diminish slowly overnight. Winds will decrease to less than 10 kts by Wednesday afternoon. Another period of rain/snow is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. Outlook... Wed night-Thu...MVFR in rain/snow mix. Fri-Sat...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ036-057- 059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...Ceru SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Gartner AVIATION...Tyburski

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