Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000 FNUS28 KWNS 232126 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Dry and breezy conditions are expected much of next week across portions of the central/southern High Plains, as a deep mid/upper-level trough moves across the western/central CONUS. Several days of elevated to potentially critical conditions are likely, though predictability remains somewhat low regarding the timing and location of the trough and associated surface features. Continued drying of finer fuels will likely occur in areas where rainfall does not occur. ...D3/Monday... As a cyclone deepens across the northern High Plains, surface winds will become southerly and increase somewhat across parts of the central/southern High Plains, with initially limited moisture return. Some uncertainty remains regarding the strength of surface flow and magnitude of RH reductions, but elevated conditions will be possible, with guidance currently suggesting the greatest risk from eastern NM into far southeast CO. ...D4/Tuesday... Critical conditions will be possible within a post-dryline regime from the southern High Plains into southeast NM on Tuesday, as strong low/midlevel flow overspreads the region. Model spread remains rather large regarding the position of the dryline on Tuesday afternoon. Critical wind/RH is likely within a north-south corridor west of the dryline, though increasing cold advection and slight RH recovery behind a trailing cold front may limit the westward extent of the threat. Given the uncertainty regarding the position of the most favorable corridor, probabilities have been kept at 40% for this outlook. ...D5/Wednesday - D6/Thursday... Elevated to potentially critical conditions will be possible within a post-frontal regime across portions of the central/southern High Plains on Wednesday and Thursday. The aforementioned timing differences among guidance regarding the mid/upper-level trough and cold front are still resulting in substantial uncertainty regarding the corridor of any greater threat, though critical conditions are certainly possible over areas where several days of finer-fuel drying have occurred. A 40% probability area has been added for Wednesday, and probabilities may eventually be needed for Thursday as well. ...D7/Friday - D8/Saturday... Most extended guidance depicts another mid/upper-level trough impacting portions of the High Plains next weekend, though considerable differences remain regarding the details, including the strength of any surface low that develops in response to this trough, which will affect the magnitude of the fire-weather threat. ..Dean.. 10/23/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$

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