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000
FNUS28 KWNS 232126
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

Dry and breezy conditions are expected much of next week across
portions of the central/southern High Plains, as a deep
mid/upper-level trough moves across the western/central CONUS.
Several days of elevated to potentially critical conditions are
likely, though predictability remains somewhat low regarding the
timing and location of the trough and associated surface features.
Continued drying of finer fuels will likely occur in areas where
rainfall does not occur.

...D3/Monday...
As a cyclone deepens across the northern High Plains, surface winds
will become southerly and increase somewhat across parts of the
central/southern High Plains, with initially limited moisture
return. Some uncertainty remains regarding the strength of surface
flow and magnitude of RH reductions, but elevated conditions will be
possible, with guidance currently suggesting the greatest risk from
eastern NM into far southeast CO.

...D4/Tuesday...
Critical conditions will be possible within a post-dryline regime
from the southern High Plains into southeast NM on Tuesday, as
strong low/midlevel flow overspreads the region. Model spread
remains rather large regarding the position of the dryline on
Tuesday afternoon. Critical wind/RH is likely within a north-south
corridor west of the dryline, though increasing cold advection and
slight RH recovery behind a trailing cold front may limit the
westward extent of the threat. Given the uncertainty regarding the
position of the most favorable corridor, probabilities have been
kept at 40% for this outlook.

...D5/Wednesday - D6/Thursday...
Elevated to potentially critical conditions will be possible within
a post-frontal regime across portions of the central/southern High
Plains on Wednesday and Thursday. The aforementioned timing
differences among guidance regarding the mid/upper-level trough and
cold front are still resulting in substantial uncertainty regarding
the corridor of any greater threat, though critical conditions are
certainly possible over areas where several days of finer-fuel
drying have occurred. A 40% probability area has been added for
Wednesday, and probabilities may eventually be needed for Thursday
as well.

...D7/Friday - D8/Saturday...
Most extended guidance depicts another mid/upper-level trough
impacting portions of the High Plains next weekend, though
considerable differences remain regarding the details, including the
strength of any surface low that develops in response to this
trough, which will affect the magnitude of the fire-weather threat.

..Dean.. 10/23/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$