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802
FXUS63 KDDC 191048
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
548 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

A cold front was rolling south through the central Plains and had
crossed into far northern Kansas as of 08z. The front will be moving
through the I-70 corridor around sunrise and continue through the
remainder of southwest Kansas during the day. Ahead of the front
low level southwesterly downslope flow will help warm temperatures
up into the lower 70s in areas along and just north of the Oklahoma
border before the front moves through later this afternoon. Farther
north, temperatures will likely stay in the 40s in areas along
I-70. In between, along the Highway 50 corridor, highs may reach
the 65-70 range depending on how soon the front moves through.

The long advertised upper level shortwave trough was moving south out
of Canada into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains early
this morning. This system will swing southeast through the northern
and central Plains through tonight. Areas of light snow or rain changing
over to snow, associated with a band of mid level frontogenetic forcing,
will develop in the Syracuse-Scott City-Wakeeney area by mid evening
and spread southeast through the overnight hours. The strongest
forcing and greatest snow amounts will be focused over central
Kansas where 2-3 inch snowfall amounts are expected. Accumulations
will decrease farther south with generally an inch to a dusting
expected along and south of Highway 50. The snow should be coming
to an end over central Kansas by around or shortly after sunrise.

Colder air will move over all of the area overnight. Temperatures
should bottom out well into the 20s over most locations with lows
around 30 over south central Kansas. These temperatures will pose
a danger to early gardens and stocked outdoor nurseries.

Have converted the Freeze Watch for tonight into a Freeze Warning
as well as continued the Winter Weather Advisory that also
highlights the freezing temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

As the upper system departs the region on Tuesday, skies will be
clearing through the morning hours although with a cold pool
aloft, I would expect additional partly cloudy skies to develop
with daytime heating. High temperatures will be much cooler in
the 40s.

A Freeze Watch continues for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Some mid level warm advection cloudiness will develop overnight
which could keep temperatures from bottoming out and possibly
staying above freezing in some areas.

Another shortwave trough will move out of the Rockies Wednesday
night and could bring some light precipitation to the area. Have
introduced slight chance pops for light rain or rain/snow.

Warmer temperatures should return through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

A cold front will move through the Hays area at the beginning of
this period and continue south across the remainder of southwest
Kansas through this afternoon. MVFR cigs will gradually spread
south behind the front. Areas of light snow or rain changing to
snow will develop by around 03z and continue through much of the
night before ending from west to east later tonight. MVFR to IFR
cigs and vsbys can be expected in areas of precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  26  46  27 /  10  80   0   0
GCK  59  24  45  26 /  10  70   0   0
EHA  71  24  48  27 /  10  40   0   0
LBL  72  24  48  26 /  10  40   0   0
HYS  47  25  46  24 /  10 100  10   0
P28  72  30  50  30 /  10  60  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT
Tuesday for KSZ030-031-045-046-065-066.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ043-044-061>064-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard