Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000 FXUS63 KDDC 050517 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1117 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Closed cyclone tracking across southern Colorado right on schedule at midday, with the associated surface low organizing over SE Colorado. Forcing for ascent and diffluence aloft continue to increase at midday, and southeast winds will continue to increase for the next several hours, gusting over 30 mph. Paltry moisture advection continues, with dewpoints now into the upper 30s. There is not much moisture to tap upstream in Oklahoma; only expecting low to mid 40s into SW Kansas by late afternoon and evening. Additional moistening is ongoing from aloft, with widespread virga already present visually and on radar. 12z NAM is focusing its instability axis (MU CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) from roughly the Dodge City vicinity to the Red Hills by early this evening. This is actually a very favorable setup for severe convection, given the diurnal timing, lift/forcing, and shear....minus the needed moisture and instability. Some strong to marginally severe low topped storms/supercells are plausible this afternoon and evening, as mid level cold advection continues over minimal boundary layer moisture. Marginal hail (quarters or less) and wind gusts (< 60 mph) are possible. Measurable rain will be scattered around with this activity, but confidence on the widespread beneficial rainfall remains focused overnight, in the deformation zone north of the southeast-digging mid level cyclone as it tracks into western Oklahoma by sunrise Friday. Storm total QPF grids still show a widespread 0.25-0.50 inch rainfall, and HRRR guidance suggests most of this will fall between midnight and sunrise Friday. Temperatures will remain well above freezing through this entire event, and all precipitation will fall as rain. Winds will be quite elevated and gusty from the northeast during the rain, gusting over 30 mph. Temperatures sunrise Friday in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Light rain will linger across especially the southern zones for the first few hours of Friday morning, with some more measurable QPF mainly south of US 50. Widespread stratus and low clouds will prevail Friday morning, but rapidly dissipate through the afternoon amid strong subsidence. Models do show minimal cold advection behind the departing trough, with a net decrease of about -3C at 850 mb versus Thursday, but with plenty of early March afternoon sun, mid to upper 50s are still expected. NE winds of 15-25 mph will gradually weaken through late afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 135 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 The forecast is completely dry, Saturday through at least Tuesday. Broad high pressure ridging will provide for a fantastic early spring weekend. Afternoon temperatures will be recovering through the 60s Saturday and Sunday, but the typical Kansas south winds of 20-30 mph will be blowing both afternoons. Still a bargain for early March. More of the same Monday, windy and warm, as flow aloft begins to trend SWly in response to an expansive long wave trough arriving in western North America. Afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s. We continue to monitor Tuesday for potentially extreme danger of wildfire spread. Model consensus places primary lee cyclone (<996 mb) in the vicinity of SW Nebraska 6 pm Tuesday, with a strong dryline trailing southward through the high plains. Pressure gradients will be tight, with the tightest gradients likely east of the dryline in central Kansas (850 mb winds of 45-50 kts). Still, locations behind the dryline will likely be windier drier and warmer than any guidance, and will likely have fire weather headlines Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures from the NBM were near 80 and were accepted. Synoptic pattern appears decidedly springlike mid next week, with a strong established dryline and convective potential given strong SWly flow aloft. Expansive longwave trough across the Rockies Wednesday will edge out onto the plains late Wednesday. Details will waffle this far out, but the deterministic 12z ECMWF currently suggests severe convection late Wednesday from the southeast zones northeast through central/NE Kansas. This severe potential will have to be watched closely, given a strong SWly jet aloft and an open gulf, but climatology says most will be southeast of SW Kansas. Cold frontal passage is expected Wednesday night, followed by cooler/more stable air Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1114 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Strong winds in the order of 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts will be the case through 00Z and then the winds should back off through 06Z. An upper level system will continue to provide rain and isolated storms for all airport sites through 14Z. Cloud ceilings will stay in MVFR to IFR flight conditions through 14Z and then we should see clearing from north to south which will bring flight conditions to VFR after 18Z for all airport sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 41 61 32 65 / 80 40 0 0 GCK 40 59 30 64 / 90 30 0 0 EHA 39 57 31 64 / 40 60 0 0 LBL 38 57 31 63 / 50 60 0 0 HYS 40 60 30 67 / 90 20 0 0 P28 43 59 34 65 / 90 60 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Tatro is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.