Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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136 FXUS63 KDDC 131759 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1259 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions through Tuesday. - Warming trend expected through mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 WV imagery indicates a weak upper level trough of low pressure shifting east through the Central Plains while ridging aloft builds in across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, high pressure is drifting east through the Central Plains. Tranquil conditions are likely early in the period as the SREF indicates ridging aloft, already building in across the Desert Southwest, expanding farther northeast into the Western High Plains today into Monday. Despite sufficient moisture/instability present, a weak/disorganized flow aloft and lack of any other triggering mechanism will allow relatively dry conditions to persist through Monday night. Temperatures will rebound today as departing surface high pressure gives way to southerlies across western Kansas by early afternoon, helping push H85 temperatures back up around 20C in central Kansas to near 25C along the Colorado line. Under increased sunshine, look for afternoon highs well up into the 80s(F) to near 90F as suggested by the HREF painting a widespread 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 85F today. With prevailing southerlies persisting into Monday, a warming trend will see widespread afternoon highs in the 90s(F). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
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Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 South winds at 6-10 kts will persist through tonight as a weak surface trough stays in the lee of the Rockies. South winds will increase a little toward the end of the period as the trough deepens. VFR conditions can be expected.
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&& .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJohnson AVIATION...Finch