Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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802 FXUS63 KDDC 191048 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 548 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 A cold front was rolling south through the central Plains and had crossed into far northern Kansas as of 08z. The front will be moving through the I-70 corridor around sunrise and continue through the remainder of southwest Kansas during the day. Ahead of the front low level southwesterly downslope flow will help warm temperatures up into the lower 70s in areas along and just north of the Oklahoma border before the front moves through later this afternoon. Farther north, temperatures will likely stay in the 40s in areas along I-70. In between, along the Highway 50 corridor, highs may reach the 65-70 range depending on how soon the front moves through. The long advertised upper level shortwave trough was moving south out of Canada into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains early this morning. This system will swing southeast through the northern and central Plains through tonight. Areas of light snow or rain changing over to snow, associated with a band of mid level frontogenetic forcing, will develop in the Syracuse-Scott City-Wakeeney area by mid evening and spread southeast through the overnight hours. The strongest forcing and greatest snow amounts will be focused over central Kansas where 2-3 inch snowfall amounts are expected. Accumulations will decrease farther south with generally an inch to a dusting expected along and south of Highway 50. The snow should be coming to an end over central Kansas by around or shortly after sunrise. Colder air will move over all of the area overnight. Temperatures should bottom out well into the 20s over most locations with lows around 30 over south central Kansas. These temperatures will pose a danger to early gardens and stocked outdoor nurseries. Have converted the Freeze Watch for tonight into a Freeze Warning as well as continued the Winter Weather Advisory that also highlights the freezing temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 As the upper system departs the region on Tuesday, skies will be clearing through the morning hours although with a cold pool aloft, I would expect additional partly cloudy skies to develop with daytime heating. High temperatures will be much cooler in the 40s. A Freeze Watch continues for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Some mid level warm advection cloudiness will develop overnight which could keep temperatures from bottoming out and possibly staying above freezing in some areas. Another shortwave trough will move out of the Rockies Wednesday night and could bring some light precipitation to the area. Have introduced slight chance pops for light rain or rain/snow. Warmer temperatures should return through the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 A cold front will move through the Hays area at the beginning of this period and continue south across the remainder of southwest Kansas through this afternoon. MVFR cigs will gradually spread south behind the front. Areas of light snow or rain changing to snow will develop by around 03z and continue through much of the night before ending from west to east later tonight. MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys can be expected in areas of precipitation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 64 26 46 27 / 10 80 0 0 GCK 59 24 45 26 / 10 70 0 0 EHA 71 24 48 27 / 10 40 0 0 LBL 72 24 48 26 / 10 40 0 0 HYS 47 25 46 24 / 10 100 10 0 P28 72 30 50 30 / 10 60 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ030-031-045-046-065-066. Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ043-044-061>064-074>081-084>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gerard LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...Gerard

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