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000
FXUS63 KDDC 050517
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1117 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

Closed cyclone tracking across southern Colorado right on schedule
at midday, with the associated surface low organizing over SE
Colorado. Forcing for ascent and diffluence aloft continue to
increase at midday, and southeast winds will continue to increase
for the next several hours, gusting over 30 mph. Paltry moisture
advection continues, with dewpoints now into the upper 30s. There
is not much moisture to tap upstream in Oklahoma; only expecting
low to mid 40s into SW Kansas by late afternoon and evening.
Additional moistening is ongoing from aloft, with widespread virga
already present visually and on radar. 12z NAM is focusing its
instability axis (MU CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) from roughly the Dodge
City vicinity to the Red Hills by early this evening. This is
actually a very favorable setup for severe convection, given the
diurnal timing, lift/forcing, and shear....minus the needed
moisture and instability. Some strong to marginally severe low
topped storms/supercells are plausible this afternoon and evening,
as mid level cold advection continues over minimal boundary layer
moisture. Marginal hail (quarters or less) and wind gusts (< 60
mph) are possible. Measurable rain will be scattered around with
this activity, but confidence on the widespread beneficial
rainfall remains focused overnight, in the deformation zone north
of the southeast-digging mid level cyclone as it tracks into
western Oklahoma by sunrise Friday. Storm total QPF grids still
show a widespread 0.25-0.50 inch rainfall, and HRRR guidance
suggests most of this will fall between midnight and sunrise
Friday. Temperatures will remain well above freezing through this
entire event, and all precipitation will fall as rain. Winds will
be quite elevated and gusty from the northeast during the rain,
gusting over 30 mph. Temperatures sunrise Friday in the upper 30s
and lower 40s.

Light rain will linger across especially the southern zones for
the first few hours of Friday morning, with some more measurable
QPF mainly south of US 50. Widespread stratus and low clouds will
prevail Friday morning, but rapidly dissipate through the
afternoon amid strong subsidence. Models do show minimal cold
advection behind the departing trough, with a net decrease of
about -3C at 850 mb versus Thursday, but with plenty of early
March afternoon sun, mid to upper 50s are still expected. NE winds
of 15-25 mph will gradually weaken through late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 135 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

The forecast is completely dry, Saturday through at least Tuesday.
Broad high pressure ridging will provide for a fantastic early
spring weekend. Afternoon temperatures will be recovering through
the 60s Saturday and Sunday, but the typical Kansas south winds of
20-30 mph will be blowing both afternoons. Still a bargain for
early March.

More of the same Monday, windy and warm, as flow aloft begins to
trend SWly in response to an expansive long wave trough arriving
in western North America. Afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s.

We continue to monitor Tuesday for potentially extreme danger of
wildfire spread. Model consensus places primary lee cyclone
(<996 mb) in the vicinity of SW Nebraska 6 pm Tuesday, with a
strong dryline trailing southward through the high plains.
Pressure gradients will be tight, with the tightest gradients
likely east of the dryline in central Kansas (850 mb winds of
45-50 kts). Still, locations behind the dryline will likely be
windier drier and warmer than any guidance, and will likely have
fire weather headlines Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures from the
NBM were near 80 and were accepted.

Synoptic pattern appears decidedly springlike mid next week, with
a strong established dryline and convective potential given
strong SWly flow aloft. Expansive longwave trough across the
Rockies Wednesday will edge out onto the plains late Wednesday.
Details will waffle this far out, but the deterministic 12z ECMWF
currently suggests severe convection late Wednesday from the
southeast zones northeast through central/NE Kansas. This severe
potential will have to be watched closely, given a strong SWly jet
aloft and an open gulf, but climatology says most will be
southeast of SW Kansas. Cold frontal passage is expected Wednesday
night, followed by cooler/more stable air Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

Strong winds in the order of 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts will
be the case through 00Z and then the winds should back off through
06Z. An upper level system will continue to provide rain and
isolated storms for all airport sites through 14Z. Cloud ceilings
will stay in MVFR to IFR flight conditions through 14Z and then we
should see clearing from north to south which will bring flight
conditions to VFR after 18Z for all airport sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  61  32  65 /  80  40   0   0
GCK  40  59  30  64 /  90  30   0   0
EHA  39  57  31  64 /  40  60   0   0
LBL  38  57  31  63 /  50  60   0   0
HYS  40  60  30  67 /  90  20   0   0
P28  43  59  34  65 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro