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197
FXUS63 KDDC 052308
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
608 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-day Monday into the
  afternoon along and east of a line Scott City to Garden City.
  But these storms are expected to increase in severity farther
  east during early to mid afternoon, with very large hail and
  tornadoes expected.

- The western limit of severe weather Monday depends on how
  early in the day storms develop.

- Critical Fire Weather conditions are forecast over extreme
  southwest Kansas Monday Afternoon.

- A mainly dry weather pattern will develop Monday evening and
  persist for several days.

- There are small chances for rain next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Having been suppressed into central and south Texas by overnight
convection, rich moisture (mid 60s dewpoints or higher) will be
slow to return ahead of an intense, negatively tilted upper
level system. Low clouds and possibly patchy drizzle will
develop later tonight as moisture increases into a relatively
cool air mass. Although the moisture return ahead of the robust
upper level system will not be ideal, mid level cooling along
with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s will lead to
moderate surface based CAPE by late morning into mid day from
Cimarron and Dodge City north to WaKeeney. Given the strong mid
level cooling, the "lid" or capping inversion above the moist
layer will erode, allowing for thunderstorm development by late
morning. These storms could contain large hail and damaging
winds.

By early to mid afternoon, continued moisture return with
dewpoints in the mid 60s to possibly upper 60s is expected
along and east of a line from Coldwater to Hays, leading to
strong surface based CAPE as high as 2500 to 3000 j/kg. A nne to
ssw oriented dry pacific front will overtake the dry line over
south central Kansas, with the dry line extending almost
straight south from the front into Oklahoma and Texas. A subtle
tropical warm front, representing the leading edge of higher
dewpoints (currently over south Texas) will extend eastward
across southern Kansas. The intersection of this ill defined
warm front with the dryline and locations south from there will
be a favored area for rotating storms with possible tornadoes
per the moderate risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center.
Hodographs across south central Kansas are much more favorable
for tornadoes than areas farther north and west. There is less
pronounced backing of the mid level winds in this area owing to
weaker mid level cold advection, which leads to the more
favorable hodographs. A few strong tornadoes are possible, with
the highest chances along and east of a line from Kinsley to
Coldwater, including the counties of Pratt, Barber and Stafford
and possibly as far west as Comanche, Kiowa and Edwards
counties. the SPC outlook indicates 15-30% chances of a tornado
within 25 miles of a given point in these areas.

As far as rain amounts are concerned, this will not be a
widespread rain event. Instead t-storms will be isolated to
scattered, with some locations seeing brief heavy rains and
hail while others get no precipitation. T-storm chances are
30-50% along and east of a line from Wakeeney to Dodge City,
with highest chances over central and south central Kansas as
the storms become more organized.

Behind the dry front Monday afternoon, expect west winds at
20-30 mph, along with much drier air. Highs should reach into
the upper 70s to upper 80s, with the warmest readings just
behind the dry front during early to mid afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Downslope will persist Tuesday as Monday`s front stalls and
washes out, allowing temperatures to reach into the 78 to 85
degree range. Cooler air will arrive by Wednesday as upper level
troughing deepens over the northern plains and slowly shifts
eastward through late week. Another upper level trough will form
over the Desert Southwest by late week. However, a strong upper
level shortwave trough moving southward out of Canada will tend
to shunt any mid level frontogenesis to the south of Kansas.
However, there are small chances for rain, especially in extreme
southwest Kansas and along the OKlahoma state line by Friday
night and into Sunday. The ECMWF and CMCE ensembles indicate
light amounts of rain, with probabilities in the 10-20% range of
.5" or greater in the ECMWF ensemble mean. The CMCE mean
indicates less rainfall, with only 10-20 % chances of .1" or
greater.

Overnight lows will be cool, but cloud cover may tend to keep
temperatures from bottoming out any lower than the 40s by mid to
late week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Warm air and moisture advection will lower cloud bases after 05Z
and we will see IFR to LIFR flight category for HYS and DDC
around 06-07Z and GCK and LBL around 07-08Z. The low clouds will
hang around through mid morning when a dry line sweeps across
southwest Kansas and cloud ceilings will increase to VFR flight
category by 16Z for GCK and LBL, DDC around 17Z and HYS by 19Z.
The dryline is also forecast to develop thunderstorms around
18-19Z and these storms will mainly affect HYS. With the
environment any storms around HYS could be severe and
downbursts are possible through around 21Z. Winds throughout the
time period will be strong...with sustained winds around 20 kts
and gusts over 30 kts.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

West winds at 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 35-40 mph will
develop across west central Kansas by late morning Monday and
then persist through the afternoon. The stronger winds will be
across Hamilton and Kearny counties. Relative humidity will be
as low as 10%. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions will
exist across extreme western Kansas. Winds may be a little less
near the Oklahoma state line, with near critical fire weather.
A red flag warning was issued for the southwestern counties of
Kansas. The Fire Weather Watch for Finney and Haskell counties
was cancelled due to recent heavy rains and green up.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Monday for KSZ061-062-074-075-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Tatro
FIRE WEATHER...Finch