Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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535 FXUS63 KDDC 301618 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Record or near record high temperatures possible near the Oklahoma border today. At Medicine Lodge today, the record high is 95 degrees set back in 1959. The current forecast high today is 94. - Elevated to near critical fire risk south of the Arkansas river today. - There is a marginal risk (<15%) for severe thunderstorms east of highway 183, mainly in Barber and Pratt counties - An enhance risk for severe thunderstorms will exist across southwest Kansas on Wednesday. There is a 30-45% chance for large hail and a 10% chance that this hail will be greater than 2". && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Ensembles remain in good agreement this morning with a cold front moving across southwest Kansas today as an upper level trough/low, located over Montana/Wyoming at 06z, moves east into the northern Plains. CAMS are in better agreement today compared to yesterday with the timing of this cold front, but still, some minor differences are observed in this boundary`s location between 21z today and 00z Wednesday. At this time, all the short term models agree the front will be south of Dodge City, but the uncertainty is how far south. If the further north solution turns out to be more correct, then more widely scattered storms will be possible across south central Kansas, while the further south solution would result in only isolated storms. These storms will also be concentrated near the Oklahoma border. Both solutions support large hail (1-2) being the main hazard should storms develop. Based on these solutions and the overlap of storm potential in Barber and Pratt Counties, we will continue with a chance (20-30%) for thunderstorms with isolated severe being possible between 4 pm and 9 pm. Both solutions of this surface boundary will also support keeping winds light enough that, even with humidity values falling back into the 10 to 15 percent range south of a Syracuse to Dodge City to Pratt line, the fire risk today will only be elevated to near critical. Finally for today...unseasonably warm temperatures will also be something to pay attention to near the Oklahoma border. It looks like as temperatures climb into the mid 90s, a few record temperatures may be in jeopardy. At Medicine Lodge today, the record high is 95 degrees set back in 1959. The current forecast high today is 94. Low confidence still exists on how things will unfold on Wednesday. Several of the CAMS have a deep layer of low level moisture returning to southwest Kansas with even a 20-30% chance for some light (0.01) precipitation occurring from this deep layer of moisture between 12z and 18z Wednesday. Looking at various HREF soundings from the DESI, it does look like moisture will be increasing, more so than the previous run; however, unsure if the depth will be enough for widespread measurable precipitation. In addition there will also be a chance for some elevated convection to develop as 850-700mb warm air advection and moisture transport improves under 7-8C/km 700-500mb lapse rates. Main limiting factor to this morning convection is the widespread CIN the NAM also has in the 850-700mb level. Still if we are able to get some isolated to widely scattered elevated convection to develop then the potential does exist for seeing large hail from these morning storms. Now given the widespread low clouds and chance for elevated convection early Wednesday morning north of our surface boundary that will be located near the Oklahoma border the next question is with these low clouds and light precipitation north of the surface boundary near the Oklahoma border early in the day, then will we really see this surface boundary lift as far north as the majority of the CAMS suggest? Also, if it does, will we have time to recover enough for storms to develop? At this time, I am unsure, but the potential does exist, and if we can get storms to develop, conditions will be favorable for seeing hail greater than 2 and strong gusty winds. Given the potential for very large hail, I am unable to disagree with SPC on severe weather hazards, just unsure how widespread and exactly where the better chances will be. Even with these uncertainties, the enhanced risk is warranted at this time, and anyone with travel or outdoor plans on Wednesday should pay special attention to any and all updates. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 During the latter half of the workweek, ensemble clusters generally agree on the presence of a -22 to -25C 500mb upper level trough over the Four Corners region Wednesday night, lifting northeast into the Western High Plains on Thursday as another upper level trough descends south towards the Four Corners region. A cold front crossing southwest Kansas Wednesday night will likely stall out somewhere across northwest Oklahoma and the central Panhandle of Texas as surface pressures fall along the higher terrain of the central Rockies in response to the next approaching upper level system. Currently, confidence is not high regarding how far south this cold front will move before stalling out, given the uncertainty of how convection will evolve in the warm sector/dryline on Wednesday and the minor timing issues with this next upper level system as it approaches the Four Corners Area Friday. Even given this low confidence it looks like the majority of the clusters do agree that moisture and lift north of the surface boundary develops on Thursday as the next upper level trough moves east into the central Rockies. This will continue to improve on Friday based on the improving moist upslope flow ahead of the upper level trough as it moves out into the Western High Plains Friday night. As a result there will be ongoing chances for showers and thunderstorms across some part of western Kansas late week with the best chance for rain being Friday night into early Saturday. The clouds, possible precipitation, and cooler temperatures late in the week will give way to warmer temperatures over the weekend as the next upper level trough finally crosses the Rockies and moves out into the Plains. The timing and strength of this next upper wave once it crosses the Rockies remain unclear, given the diverging solutions regarding its strength and timing. Once this system finally moves out of the Rockies, the surface boundary will lift back north as a warm front, bringing warmer temperatures back to southwest Kansas. This may also maintain the chance for scattered thunderstorms through the weekend, given the passage of the upper trough and the location of the surface boundary somewhere in or near southwest Kansas, especially north and south of the Dodge City area, as indicated by 50-60% of the ensemble clusters. It may also be necessary to monitor the chance for a few severe thunderstorms late this weekend, given the increasing chances of wind shear >30 knots and 500mb surface based CAPE. The chances are low (20-40%), but it`s something to keep an eye on. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1109 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR condtions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Wednesday morning. Northerly winds around 20 to 30kt with gusts up to 35kt are forecast to develop immediately behind a cold front pushing southeast through western Kansas this afternoon. Winds are then expected to subside while turning more easterly generally after 02-04Z this evening after the cold pushes through and stalls out in the northern Texas Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...JJohnson