Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
100 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Quiet sensible weather is in store for the Short Term forecast
period (today and tonight) as shortwave ridge axis aloft will be
centered across Nebraska into western Kansas. The surface ridge axis
which was centered across far western Kansas at this time (0815z)
will gradually weaken and shift east through the day. Lower
tropospheric temperatures will warm, especially out west, as
thicknesses rise. This will translate into warming surface
temperatures, with just about all areas seeing 70-72F for highs this
afternoon. The MSLP gradient will start to increase in the far west
by late afternoon, resulting in increasing south-southeast winds to
around 15 mph.

Tonight, the next storm system will be making a push into Wyoming
and northern Colorado by the end of the Tonight period (12z
Tuesday), and this will have an impact in the low level pattern as
substantial anticyclogenesis will develop over Wyoming, This will
mark the beginning of strong cold frontogenesis across the High
Plains of northeastern Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle by
around 06z. Showers will begin to develop in the 06-12z time frame
up in this region, but for now POPs will be silent for all of our
counties, with POPs ramping up just after the end of the Tonight
period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Two frontal passages will occur during this forecast period: Tuesday
and Thursday. Both of these frontal passages will be occurring in
association with northwest flow waves. The Tuesday system will have
marginal moisture coming up ahead of it, thus this day has the best
chance for precipitation. Showers with an isolated thunderstorm or
two will develop along and just behind the surface front, especially
the eastern half of the DDC forecast area. Fairly cold air will be
found behind this front, as the three major global models show 0C
850mb temperatures. This cool airmass will only modify marginally
before the next reinforcing shot of cooler air comes in Thursday.
The result of this will be three consecutive nights of lows well
into the 30s for most of southwest and west central Kansas. After
the Thursday front pushes through and second of two waves pushes
east, we will start a warming trend going into the weekend. The
large scale ridge axis which will develop will result in 850mb
temperatures warming back into the upper teens to lower 20s Saturday
and Sunday. This should result in highs well into the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Going into early next week, the global models are showing
indications of mean troughing in the west and ridging in the east,
which would favor Gulf of Mexico moisture advancing on the Central
Plains on sustained south winds, potentially leading to some
thunderstorm activity (although way too early to determine anything
more detailed than that).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The rest of Today and Tonight will remain free of any
aviation/terminal impacts, and remain VFR flight category. By
early Tuesday however, the next shortwave will be moving though
the Rockies, with potential for showers, isolated thunderstorms
along a narrow band of differential temperatures advection ahead
of the cold front passage late Tuesday afternoon. IFR ceilings
will be possible at some point Tuesday at most terminal sites in
any showers and storms and are already being reflected in the
TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  45  60  37 /   0  10  50  60
GCK  71  44  55  35 /   0  10  40  50
EHA  73  44  55  36 /   0  10  20  40
LBL  73  45  60  37 /   0  10  30  50
HYS  70  46  56  38 /   0  10  70  40
P28  73  50  69  42 /   0   0  30  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell


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