


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --876 FXUS63 KDLH 131739 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1239 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoke is expected to persist through Monday with perhaps a brief break for some places Sunday afternoon. - The next best chances for showers and storms is Sunday evening and again Monday night through Tuesday. Periodic shower/storm chances the rest of the week. - Warm weather with highs in the 80s expected Sunday and Monday with cooler weather for the middle and latter half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Smoke: Plenty of haze and smoke is expected today and again Monday, having been brought in on the prevailing northwest winds Saturday. Winds will back into the southwest for today in advance of a cold front that will move through later this afternoon and evening. We should get a period of better conditions with less smoke this afternoon ahead of that cold front. There will be another surge of it behind the cold front tonight and Monday, though perhaps with not as much density as we had on Saturday. Visibilities will be variable as smoke coverage varies, but generally between 3-6 miles and occasionally down to 1-2 miles. Air quality alerts are in effect through Monday for all of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Find air quality information through Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (https:/www.pca.state.mn.us/air-water-land-climate/air-quality) and Wisconsin DNR (https:/dnr.wisconsin.gov/topic/AirQuality). Today and tonight: Another warm and sticky day is expected today, with warm air advection and warm temperatures aloft to help boost high temperatures into the low to mid 80s. A cold front will push into the area from the northwest this afternoon, the continue through the area tonight. There should be enough convergence along this boundary as it slides through the area to kick off some showers and storms. While instability will not be very significant over northern Minnesota, as it gets into the southern portions of the CWA, it increases, and together with the deep layer shear, we may looking at some potential for strong to severe storms if these ingredients come together just right. The weak mid level lapse rates and somewhat shallow nature of the available low level moisture are going to inhibit the potential storms. Isolated large hail or wind gusts are possible, and we do have a marginal risk of severe storms from SPC. Monday: Another warm and sticky day is expected, despite having had a cold front move through the area tonight. The pattern returns to a more zonal flow, with warm air advection aloft and warm and humid surface air moving back into the area. Monday night through Wednesday: Zonal flow continues across the central CONUS, with a series of shortwaves that move across the region through Wednesday. A fairly strong leading wave moves across the area Monday night into Tuesday in combination with a inverted trough axis that slowly settles across the region. Deep moisture is healthy if not extreme, with PWAT values of around 1.5" during this time range. This pattern, combined wit the moisture could promote at least some training potential of thunderstorms that may develop ahead of the front Monday night. There is enough model disagreement in the instability and shear parameters that confidence is low in the potential for strong to severe storms. However, we may see some stronger storms Monday night and into Tuesday. Tuesday night into Wednesday, the surface boundary sags south of the forecast area, but with the west-southwest flow aloft continuing to push waves of energy across it, we are looking at the potential for additional rainfall to continue Tuesday night into Wednesday. The severe risk is pushed to the south of the area, but the potential for training storms again over the same areas that will have received rainfall Monday night increases our risk for heavier rainfall and potential flash flooding on Tuesday night. WPC has put our area under a slight risk of excessive rainfall for Tuesday night, but has only a marginal risk for Monday night. With the passage of this boundary, we finally get into some cooler temperatures on Wednesday, with highs Wednesday only in the 60s to low 70s. Thursday through Saturday: A ridge of high pressure will push into the area for Thursday, giving us a relatively quiet day. After the rather chilly day on Wednesday, temperatures should recover back into the 70s for most areas. Precipitation chances return to the area for Friday and Saturday, as some weak shortwaves move through the broad cyclonic flow aloft. Temperatures remain near to cooler than normal through Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Visibility reductions from Canadian wildfires will improve through the afternoon, as winds increase from the southwest, ahead of an approaching cold front. Wind gusts of 18-22kt are possible. That cold front will slide through the area late this afternoon and this evening. A few showers or storms are possible along the front, but coverage is not great enough to include at any particular taf site. The cold front this evening may bring another surge of smoke behind it tonight and some reduced visibilities once again.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Southwest winds to strengthen today, with gusts pushing up to 20 to 25 knots, especially in the open waters and along the North Shore north of Taconite Harbor for the late morning and afternoon hour before diminishing again this evening. Wind speeds decrease Sunday night and become westerly for Monday at 5 to 15 knots. They drop still further and become more variable in direction with generally light speeds Monday night into Tuesday. Isolated storms are possible Sunday late afternoon and evening, There are additional chances for storms (30-40% chance) Monday night into Tuesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>146.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...HA MARINE...LE