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000
FXUS63 KDTX 292243
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
643 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023


.AVIATION...

Very dry conditions maintained under persistent high pressure will
keep skies clear throughout this taf period. Light winds generally
from the northeast tonight, before emerging from the southeast on
Tuesday as the center of the high pressure drifts off the coast of
New England.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023

DISCUSSION...

Over the next several days there will be a gradual break down in the
strong rex block that has dominated the eastern US since late last
week. The upper low now churning over the coast of the Carolinas will
slowly weaken as it lingers off the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic coastal
regions. The mid level ridge now over Michigan will expand eastward
into New England by mid week. The resulting southeast return flow
will drive slightly warmer low level air into Se Mi. Model soundings
indicate mixing depths will be a good 1-2 kt feet higher than the
last couple days Tues through at least Thurs, suggestive of daytime
highs of mid 80s to around 90. The southeast component to the sfc
winds will however keep temps several degrees cooler near the lakes.
Moisture return looks to be fairly limited into Se Mi, a little
better to the west. Model soundings also suggest diurnal mixing will
support lower sfc dewpoints resulting in much lower (if any) CAPE
than suggested by the NAM and GFS. This will ensure continued dry
conditions through the end of the week. Although not as dry as the
last several days, there will still be a respectable diurnal range in
temps this week, featuring lows in the 50s and 60s.

Toward the end of the week, the mid level ridge is forecast to
retrogress back across Lower Michigan as the long wave pattern
transitions to an omega block across NOAM. There has been some
indication in the medium range model suite showing a back door cold
front being driven across Se Mi this weekend in response to height
falls across eastern Canada and further retrogression of the mid
level ridge. However, models are trending weaker and drier with this
feature, suggesting a continuation of dry conditions through the
entire seven day forecast with just slightly cooler temps on Sunday.

MARINE...

A dome of high pressure will continue to sit under the Great Lakes
through the bulk of the week which will lead to the continuation of
dry weather and calm to light winds. The only minute change to note
will be a wind direction shift, from east-northeast changing to
southeast tomorrow into Wednesday. Wind speeds generally stay at 10
knots or less.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......AM


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