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193
FXUS63 KDTX 122342
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
742 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures in the mid 80s tomorrow, upper 80s Monday, then
reaching around 90 degrees on Tuesday.

- Dry start to the week, but showers and thunderstorms likely return
Wednesday-Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...

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Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed along a boundary
this evening, but activity looks like it will avoid all terminals as
activity pushes east throughout the evening. A cold front currently
tracking across Lake Michigan will then work through tonight possibly
touching off a few showers. Main outcome of this front will be a SCT
low VFR/MVFR deck tonight before skies improve tomorrow. Gusty winds
this afternoon have decreased at press time to around 10 knots or
less. Winds turn westerly tonight with the frontal passage and remain
mostly below 10 knots.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorm chances this evening have come
to an end and any thunderstorms chances tomorrow look very limited
tomorrow.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less with the cold front late
  tonight.
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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

DISCUSSION...

Broken line of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms went up on
the prefrontal trough around noon, earlier and more extensive than
many of the hires solutions. Dew pts dropping into the mid to upper
60s and surface ridging moving in late this afternoon has pretty
much ended the severe threat, as mid level cold pool and much better
wind shear over Western Great Lakes will not arrive in time before
the sun sets. Still, the cold front may be able to muster a couple
more showers and thunderstorms in the evening with some residual low
instability left over.

Upper level trough axis swings through tomorrow, but extremely dry
mid levels (40-50 C dew pt depressions at 700 MB) look to prevent
any activity from going up, except perhaps right near the southern
Michigan border.

Upper level ridge (591-592 DAM at 500 MB) axis then builds over the
region early next, promoting dry but hot weather, with temps likely
reaching 90 degrees on Tuesday.

A wet pattern then looks to be setting up for Wednesday-Thursday as
moisture streams up from Gulf Coast States/Southern Plains, in
response to a fairly strong upper level wave/trough swinging through
the northern Rockies and into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday.
Euro ensembles indicating at least a 60 percent chance of a tenth
or inch or more of qpf in Wednesday-Thursday time frame.

MARINE...

The thunderstorm threat has generally receded although some isolated
development remains possible through the evening hours. Otherwise,
dry conditions prevail in the wake of the ongoing cold front passage
which brings light winds with gust potential holding below 20 knots.
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive through the
midweek period by Wednesday as an upper-level disturbance arrives
over the Great Lakes.
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&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......AM


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