000
FXUS63 KDVN 171114
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
614 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

High pressure is found over the region, with light east winds and
mostly clear skies. With dewpoints falling slowly through the 50s,
morning lows will be pretty chilly in the 50s as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

This morning`s taste of early Fall weather will give way to a
beautifully mild afternoon, with sunshine and light winds. Highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s are on target, making for a pretty
large diurnal today, close to 30 degrees in some areas.

Tonight, under clear skies and light winds, lows will once again
fall to the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

Thursday will be another pleasant day with highs in the lower 80s.

Friday night through Sunday, there remains good model consensus
that a strong wave will drop into the mean upper trof over the
northern CONUS, results in at least 2 days of dealing with an
upper low overhead. Both the GFS and ECMWF show significant
rainfall falling in this period, with two main rounds of possible
showers and thunderstorms. The first, appears likely Friday and
Friday night, then another towards Saturday afternoon as the upper
low center moves overhead. These storms should be slow moving, and
with cool air aloft, we should not be capable of producing any
high CAPE, but rather releasing that potential through quick
daytime upticks in coverage of showers/storms. As to who gets rain
amounts over 0.25 on any time or day, it`s going to be very
challenging, as mesoscale details will be important, but we don`t
know what they will look like yet. Over all, the period also
continua to look cloudy, with highs limited to the upper 70s.

As to when the blocking pattern will break down, the blended model
solution says it`s moving out Monday. This is due to the western
ridge getting nudged east by a wave over topping the PAC NW. I`m
still leery of a cut off moving off after only developing a
couple days earlier, but this will be something we just need to
wait and see.

Through all the chances for rain ahead, clear skis now, and
cloudy days behind us, it`s remarkable that the forecast highs are
nearly consistent this entire time, in the upper 70s to low 80s
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

Dry air continues to slowly move in on the very light east winds.
A VFR one line TAF is forecast at all sites.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin