Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 281732
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1132 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy and vastly colder weather will be over our area today.

- Warmer conditions remain forecast, with highs climbing
significantly from Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 203 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Early this morning, the brutally strong cold advection will continue
to drive wind gusts to 45 mph at times, but by 6 AM, wind gusts
should largely be under 40 mph, and the expiration of the wind
advisory appears on track.  If winds linger a bit longer, this
should not be needed to be expanded for more than a few hours today.

Despite decreasing clouds, and ample sun for much of the day, the
cold pool aloft will limit our highs to the upper 20s north to lower
30s south. This is a remarkable change from yesterday`s all time
record warmth, but it`s actually much closer to normal for late
February.

It will be dry day today, as moisture is already ending from west to
east early this morning.

Tonight, winds will be light, as they begin to shift towards the
south. Though temperatures aloft are much warmer tonight, the
clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational
cooling, and lows in the mid teens north to lower 20s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 203 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

As expected, our wild weather rollercoaster ride is only taking a
short dip into below normal, before returning on a steep climb
through the 40s and lower 50s Thursday, 50s Friday, 60s Saturday,
and lower to mid 70s Sunday!  This is all due to the quick
transition from an upper trof over the Midwest, to northwest to
zonal flow aloft. This will quickly spread downslope enhanced Plains
air into the region, with more breezy mild days, that will probably
warrant a fire weather look as we approach them.

Dry weather is forecast through Sunday morning, though we`ll have to
keep an eye on a passing upper wave through the southern Plains to
the Ohio Valley Thursday night and Friday.  For now, this appears to
be mid and high level moisture passing quickly through the region,
and unlikely to produce any rainfall north of central MO/southern
IL.

Sunday afternoon through early in the week, there no longer appears
to be as rich of a moisture feed ahead of the slowly moving high
amplitude trof and cold front. We are still carrying chance (30 to
40 percent) pops, but this change is indicating that this rain
chance has lost a lot of support in mid range solutions.

Highs behind that system early next week continue to be above
normal, but mainly in the 50s rather than the warm weekend days
ahead.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with the
main concern revolving around the winds. Gusty northwest winds
will continue through the afternoon, with gusts upwards to 30
KTs. These winds will die down tonight and shift southerly, as
high pressure passes to our south. Tomorrow, southwesterly winds
will increase once again, with gusts upwards to 20-30 KTs.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Gunkel


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