000
FXUS63 KDVN 272313
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
613 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Yet another chilly day across the region. This despite the return
of sunshine for some especially NW of Quad Cities. At 2 PM
temperatures in the mid/upper 30s were common throughout the area,
which is 20-25 degrees below normal highs this time of year.
There are several features of note on the afternoon satellite
imagery. The first being an upper level trough, which has moved
into northeast Iowa and far northwest Illinois. Subsidence in the
wake is responsible for the decreasing clouds NW of Quad Cities.
The second is a closed low near Douglas Arizona in the southeast
portion of Arizona near the border with Old Mexico. Energy
continues ejecting from this system atop a low level cold airmass,
and resulting in a significant ice event for portions of the
Southern Plains. The last feature of note is Tropical Storm Zeta,
which has emerged into the Gulf Of Mexico after having crossed
the Yucatan Peninsula, and is expected to regain Hurricane strength
later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

The mid/upper level trough is expected to pass through tonight into
early Wednesday, and is likely to be accompanied by a decrease in
cloudiness. Also, winds will be turning to a SSW direction, as
surface high pressure settles to our south and low pressure and a
cold front track along the north central tier of the CONUS.
The resultant warm advection, and cloud trends will make for a
rather tricky low temperature forecast. In general, sheltered and
low lying areas NW likely to be the coldest with mid 20s potential
while portions of the far south where clearing will be delayed may
not drop out of the 30s.

Wednesday

After a mainly sunny start, it looks as though we`ll see high
cloudiness on the increase once again, as the closed low in the
Southwest moves into portions of the Southern Plains. Additional
mid/high cloudiness may also accompany a weak cold front as it
moves into the region later in the afternoon. Bottom line, sun
to start then more clouds in the afternoon. These clouds may not
be totally opaque like today, and therefore enough sun filtering
through to go along with a warming W/SW wind and dry air to propel
highs into the upper 40s and lower 50s. An improvement certainly
over these past few days, but still a bit below normal...though
getting closer.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Key Messages:

1) Generally dry conditions are now expected through the long term
period.

2) Mainly below normal temperatures are expected, with a few days
around normal.

Wednesday night and Thursday, even lower POPs are now expected for
just the southeast quarter or so of the CWA, as all models have
shifted the storm track of a surface low and the Zeta remnants
further off to the southeast. This may still be overdone and not at
all surprising if future runs have it missing our CWA entirely. The
current forecast has 20 to 30 POPs mainly for late Wednesday and
Thursday morning. It will still be chilly and brisk, with high temps
only in the mid 40s to around 50 and gusty north winds of 15 to 25
MPH.

Friday, high pressure will bring light southerly winds and sunshine
to the area. Highs will still be below normal with readings in the
mid 40s to low 50s.

Saturday, gusty south southwest winds will be seen ahead of an
approaching cold front being swept into the area by a low pressure
system moving across Canada. This will help to boost temperatures
into the 50s to near 60 in places, which is near or just a few
degrees below normal. Halloween early evening will see temps
slipping back into the 40s and low 50s.

Sunday, sunny skies and gusty winds from the NW behind the cold
front will usher colder air into the region. Highs will only be in
the 40s.

Monday and Tuesday, sunshine will prevail with winds from the W to
SW, which will bring a gradual warm-up back to the area. Highs will
go from the low to mid 50s Monday, to the mid 50s to low 60s on
Election Day Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Quiet aviation weather will continue, as mid clouds decrease to
scattered this evening, and clear skies/mostly clear will then
continue through Wednesday evening. Winds will be under 10 kts,
and will generally be west southwest the next 24 hours.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...Ervin