Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000 FXUS63 KEAX 191103 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 603 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 .Discussion... Issued at 407 AM CDT MON APR 19 2021 A fairly uneventful day on Monday in store for the area. Winds across most of the area this morning out of the southwest will persist through the day. However, across the northern plains there resides a surface ridge, which will nose its way into the northern part of Missouri through the morning. South of that boundary conditions will remain semi-comfortable, however as that cold frontal boundary sags south it will replace the comfortable temperatures in the 50s to mid 60s with temperatures in the 40s. So areas along and south of I-70 will at least have half of a day, if not a bit longer with near normal temperatures while areas across the northern part of the state gets cooler earlier in the day. As the cold air moves into the area, as the surface ridge becomes more dominant, we should see mostly near-freezing or areas of sub- freezing temperatures Tuesday morning. This will set the stage for the upcoming late-season winter weather for Tuesday morning/afternoon. Low level cold air will be in place as a mid level wave sags into the area from the northwest through the night Monday night. Temperatures in the low to mid levels will be plenty cold enough to produce snow and even maintain it to the surface. Despite marginal moisture quality (PW around 1/2" to 3/4" - ~75% Norm.) there will likely be around 1/4" to 1/2" of QPF with this system. Again, the thermal profile will be plenty cold for a good portion of that moisture to be in the form of snow. Ground conditions will struggle to stay below freezing, especially once the sun rises, and antecedent ground temperatures should be warm enough to begin with to melt most of the snow that falls. Grassy and elevated surfaces will be the most likely surfaces to realize the forecast snow amounts of around 1-3 inches, and where snow rates can overcome the warmer than freezing ground temperatures expect slushy conditions. As the better mid level support arrives Tuesday morning, the heavier precipitation and snow will fall. Also mitigating snow amounts will be the rather temporary residence time of the better lift. This system will be rather progressive, so most areas may only see 3-6 hours of falling snow. Again, with even moderate snow rates the limited time of snow production and the warmer than freezing ground conditions snow amounts will be rather modest. Areas north of I-70 should have the higher chance for the middle to upper end of the range with areas south of I-70 likely residing on the lower end of the 1 to 3 inch range. Have maintained the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory for the areas with higher confidence of minor to moderate impacts Tuesday morning. Snow moves out through the morning across eastern Kansas and western Missouri, and through the afternoon in central Missouri. As the cold air settles in expect freezing temperatures area-wide Wednesday morning with lows likely dropping into the upper 20s. Off and on rain chances continue late week into the weekend as the mid level pattern remains active. Nothing beyond minor impact rain is expected through the weekend, but temperatures should moderate back out by then. && .Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued at 601 AM CDT MON APR 19 2021 Frontal passage in the next 2 to 3 hours will signal a shift in wind to more prevailing northwest through the rest of the day. Clouds will gradually build in, but should stay VFR for the majority of the daytime hours. Light snow moves into the terminals from north to south overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning. Could see some IFR CIG/VIS with heavier areas of snow. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-102>105. MO...Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040. && $$ Discussion...Leighton Aviation...Leighton

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