Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000 FXUS63 KEAX 041045 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 445 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 .Discussion... Issued at 220 AM CST THU MAR 4 2021 Key Messages: - Above seasonal normal temperatures this week. - Chance for light rain for our southern-most counties on Friday. Status quo continues for the forecast through the weekend. We can expect another gorgeous day with highs scraping the lower 70s and diurnal afternoon east/southeast winds no higher than 15mph. Cloud cover will begin to creep into the region this evening as the mid- level low pressure center makes its journey in the the Southern Plains. This system is still on track to pass just south of our forecast area, bringing spotty, light rain showers to southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri Friday morning. A backdoor cold front will push to our SW on Friday as this low passes the area, taking down Friday`s afternoon highs into the 50s. Upper level ridging will soon fill in over the region, kicking highs back into the 60s by the weekend and keeping conditions dry and pleasant. As for our next weather system, an upper level trough is projected to deepen just off the west coast over the weekend and broaden as it begins its trek into the western CONUS. By Tuesday and into Wednesday, this upper level trough positions itself over the SW CONUS extending into the Upper Midwest. This would be a good spot to supply the upper levels with some moisture. The GFS is also projecting a marginally well developed LLJ to strengthen over the Central Plains with a southwest to northeast orientation over eastern Kansas, Missouri, and southern Iowa that would be a good supplier of Gulf moisture. While we are not hanging our hat on any of these extended models solutions, we are interested in seeing how this system develops over the weekend. Especially since models are starting to print out CAPE values, hinting at potential thunderstorms associated with this system. && .Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 438 AM CST THU MAR 4 2021 VFR conditions will prevail for the entire TAF period today. Winds are expected to remain mostly under 10kts out of the east. A few gusts up to 13kts out of the SE may be possible this afternoon. Clouds are expected to make their way back into the area tonight after 08Z, with VFR conditions continuing to prevail. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Klaus Aviation...Klaus

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