Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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947 FXUS66 KEKA 231001 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 301 AM PDT Fri Apr 23 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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Today will be the last warm and dry day across the interior, while cooler marine air lingers along the coast. Cooler and wetter weather is in store for the weekend, with widespread rain and high mountain snow expected late Saturday night and Sunday.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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An upper-level ridge axis is currently right along the West Coast this morning but will continue to shift eastward today, resulting in the last day of dry and stable conditions. The first upper wave moves across the region and will be preceded by some high clouds later today. This first feature may bring some light rain or drizzle to the coast late tonight and Saturday along with some very light showers inland. A brief break in the precip occurs late Saturday before the main low pressure system moves into the coast. This low will be accompanied by a cold front that is expected to bring a more substantial shot of beneficial rain late Saturday night through Sunday. Behind the front there is progressively colder air aloft, promoting a more unstable airmass while atmospheric profiles favor a transition to showery precipitation Sunday afternoon and evening. Under this regime have added a slight threat of thunderstorms and small hail to the forecast during the Sunday afternoon time frame. Meanwhile, snow levels lowering toward 4000 feet on Sunday will allow for some mountain snow, with significant accumulations and travel impacts likely for Scott Mountain Summit on Highway 3, while most of our other highway passes remain wet. Its still a little early to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for that spot but will likely needed in the upcoming weather packages. Some showers may linger into Monday as a trailing shortwave passes through, but otherwise expect a drying trend with moderating temperatures through mid- week. Ensemble guidance through next weekend shows a substantial amount of spread, so while the bulk of guidance keeps us fairly mild with limited rainfall, do not have much confidence in any more specifics beyond that. jt/ad
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&& .AVIATION...
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Mostly IFR to MVFR are expected at both coastal terminals this morning, with conditions improving slightly this afternoon. Some stratus will be possible later this morning at KUKI as another surge is expected up the Russian River Valley. Mid to upper-level clouds will be on the increase later today as a low pressure system approaches Northwest California. Some sprinkles will be possible along the coast starting late this evening.
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&& .MARINE...
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Northerlies have weakened substantially over the coastal waters and will continue to wane through the morning hours today. Winds will become southerly over all zones by midnight tonight and slightly increase overnight. Southerlies will top out in the fresh breeze range from Saturday morning through early Sunday morning (particularly over the northern waters) as two shortwaves traverse the area. As we head into next week, generally light to gentle breezes are expected over the coastal waters through Wednesday. Seas have generally weakened throughout the coastal waters and will continue this trend this morning. Seas are expected to remain below 8 feet through the middle of the upcoming work week. Otherwise, a small westerly swell and a small southerly swell will impact portions of the waters this weekend.
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&& .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CA...None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ450-455. Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT today for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT today for PZZ475. Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ475.
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&& $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

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