-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
466
FXUS64 KEPZ 032021
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
221 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
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Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024

Quiet weather conditions are expected through the end of the
period. The winds will become breezy to windy Sunday and continue
on into Monday. The temperatures will remain at and above the
normal for most of the area though the middle of next week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024

Currently, the winds are light to low-end breezy with sunny skies
and the temperatures on the warm side. For tonight, conditions
will be quiet with the winds becoming light and variable. The
skies will increase in cloudiness as a weak shortwave moves on by
from far Southwest. Due to this, the low temperatures on Saturday
morning will be above the normal. For Saturday, another quiet day
will be in store. The winds will be similar to that of today;
however, there might just be a few passing clouds due to the
gradual passage of the shortwave. The high temperatures in the
afternoon will be on the warm side. By Sunday, a trough will dig
across the Intermountain West, which will develop a lee cyclone
across eastern Wyoming. Even though this is not a great area to
develop windy conditions, a 700mb jet stream will move across
areas north of the El Paso and Hudspeth counties and with some
gradient in place, the winds will become breezy to windy. As of
now, the winds look to be below the criteria. Conditions will be
dry; thus, fire weather conditions will be of concerns by then.

For the rest of the period, the winds will be breezy to at times
windy as we stay under a dry westerly flow aloft. There will be a
series of disturbances passing to our north while rotating across
a positively tilted longwave trough, that will not bring any
precipitation to our area. Monday will be the day with the
strongest winds for the work week with fire weather conditions
continuing on that day. The high temperatures for El Paso will be
in upper 80s and lower 90s.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW250. There will be lots of SKC. The winds
will be from the southwest and light to breezy (10 to 15 kts)
with gust up to 25 kts through 01Z. The winds will become less
breezy thereafter. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across
the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024

For today and Saturday, conditions will be quiet with the winds
light to breezy. The min RHs will be in the single digits except
for in the Sacramento Mountains. Dry conditions will continue for
the start of next week with the winds becoming breezy to windy.
Due to this, fire weather conditions on Sunday will be critical to
extreme across Southwest and South-Central Mexico. For
Monday,strong winds will move across West Texas with critical to
extreme fire weather conditions are expected. The min RHs will
continue to be in the single digits by then. For the rest of the
period, conditions will continue to be dry with breezy winds and
above normal temperatures. Fire weather concerns by then will be
near to critical to critical.

The min RHs on Saturday will be below 10% across much of area
except for in the Sacramento Mountains where they will be between
10 and 20%. The min RHs on Sunday will decrease slightly across
the area, but will significantly decrease across the Sacramento
Mountains by around 5%. The ventilation rates will be mostly
excellent this weekend.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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El Paso                  61  90  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            56  85  52  86 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces               55  88  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               53  86  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               42  64  40  63 /   0  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences    53  85  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              49  76  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   51  86  48  88 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                50  83  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       59  87  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                51  89  52  89 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Hancock             53  91  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               56  81  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   56  90  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             53  85  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           61  86  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            51  86  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    50  87  48  89 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 55  86  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                54  85  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  46  74  42  75 /   0  10  10   0
Mescalero                45  75  44  74 /   0  10  10   0
Timberon                 43  73  40  73 /   0   0  10   0
Winston                  46  78  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                50  83  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                48  84  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             44  78  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   46  80  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    48  83  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               49  78  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  49  79  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   48  83  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  50  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           48  83  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               49  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira