Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS64 KEPZ 202352 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 552 PM MDT Tue Apr 20 2021 ...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE... .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE... VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy west to southwest winds will continue early this evening, ahead of a backdoor cold front. Once the front passes through winds will shift to the east and southeast. Gusty winds are possible in the west slopes of area mountains, that could lead to some turbulence. Winds speeds should subside gradually through the overnight period. The cold front will make it all the way to the Continental Divide, then it will be pushed back east in the morning, once the low levels of the atmosphere are mixed and the westerly winds return. Tomorrow after 17Z southwest winds return across the area with speeds between 10 to 20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts. && 29 .PREV DISCUSSION...129 PM MDT Tue Apr 20 2021... .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front pushing into far west Texas and south central New Mexico tonight will allow for cooler temperatures overnight, before warm and breezy southwest winds return Wednesday afternoon. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the week along with breezy afternoons and seasonable temperatures. A warming trend over the weekend will push lowland highs to near ninety degrees. The next upper level system is expected to arrive early next week, with windy conditions and scattered mountain rain showers possible. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight... A backdoor cold front will push westward into the Tularosa Basin and to the El Paso/Hudspeth County line this afternoon, then reach the Continental Divide overnight. This will result in somewhat gusty east winds along western slopes this evening and into early Wednesday morning. We can expect cooler air east of this front. However, southwesterly flow aloft will push the front back eastward during the day Wednesday to at least the Rio Grande valley, allowing high temperatures to return to today`s levels...near 80 in the lowlands (still lower 70s far east portion). These southwest winds will be in the breezy category along and west of the Rio Grande, possibly low end windy for a brief period along and west of the divide. And as we are accustomed to in April, it will remain dry. && .LONG TERM... Strong southwest flow aloft within the subtropical jet stream will continue to drive a dry and breezy weather pattern into the latter half of the week. Currently expecting the lingering moisture boundary along south-central New Mexico to exit the region for good on Thursday, leaving very dry air in place across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. A lee surface trough will extend across NM once again Thursday afternoon and generate breezy conditions. Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will once again occur, generally remaining below Advisory criteria. Temperatures will remain right near climate normals for late April. A weak shortwave trough will approach the region on Friday, bringing with it slightly cooler temperatures, a subtle wind shift to the northwest, and very little moisture to work with. Deterministic solutions continue to suggest a slight chance of light rain showers across the high terrain, where mesoscale forcing is more favorable. Nevertheless, with precipitable water values around 0.40" and a very dry mixed boundary layer, not expecting much if any QPF with this system. This low will progress primarily unnoticed, exiting the region Friday night. Broad ridging aloft will fill in behind Friday`s benign system and promote a warming trend as well as clear skies and lighter winds over next weekend. Temperatures will warm further on Sunday, with lowland highs likely approaching the 90-degree mark. A progressive weather pattern will continue into early next week as a stronger synoptic trough reaches the Western U.S. and a jet streak within the base of the system positions itself over the El Paso forecast area. Strong winds will be the main concern Monday and Tuesday, with the strength of the jet aloft and timing of trough axis passage likely determine just how strong winds can get. For now, expecting this to be our next Advisory-criteria day along with the possibility of patchy blowing dust. Precipitation chances are also included Monday night through next Tuesday, focusing over the northern mountain zones. && .FIRE WEATHER... East winds behind a westward moving back door cold front, already affecting eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties will spread across the area this evening into the overnight hours. This will turn winds easterly and create gusty winds along western mountain slopes. The front will get pushed back to east of the Rio Grande valley during the day on Wednesday as southwesterly winds increase. Red Flag conditions will develop west of the Rio Grande valley Wednesday afternoon, with the strongest winds forecast to occur in the Gila region. Thus the Fire Weather Watch for southwestern and south- central NM on Wednesday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Overnight RHs tonight and Wednesday night will be 30-40 percent out west and 50-70 percent in the east. Min RHs will drop into the single digits across the entire area starting Thursday as the front departs the area. This combined with gusty winds prompted a Fire Weather Watch for all zones except Hudspeth County on Thursday. Friday will likely be a repeat. Winds will be light this weekend as temperatures approach 90 degrees in the lowlands on Sunday. Vent rates will be Very Good to Excellent through the week, with the exception of Poor to Fair rates in far eastern areas the rest of today and Wednesday. && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 47 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 38 72 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 46 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 43 75 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 32 53 35 54 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 45 77 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 44 72 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 41 80 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 44 81 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 48 80 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 35 69 38 79 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 42 82 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 37 71 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 45 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 44 78 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 46 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 43 76 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 43 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 45 81 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 42 74 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 26 63 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 33 64 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 29 59 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 33 72 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 41 76 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 42 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 39 72 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 37 74 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 36 82 35 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 44 75 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 42 74 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 44 81 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 42 81 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 47 80 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 76 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ110>113. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ110-111. TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ055. && $$ 01-Fausett/30-Dennhardt/29-Crespo

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