Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000 FXUS64 KEWX 050455 CCA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1055 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 .AVIATION... Latest satellite imagery shows patches of mid to high level clouds moving across the region at times while a deck of low clouds are moving in from the south. MVFR/VFR conditions will continue at the start of the TAF period but as the low stratus deck continues to march north, expect for MVFR to IFR ceilings to develop at the TAF sites along I-35. Additionally, some fog may also develop with the most favored area extending from the Hill country into the San Antonio metro. For DRT, VFR conditions primarily prevail but could not completely rule out a brief period of MVFR ceilings around time of sunrise. Conditions will improve to VFR at all sites by around midday Friday as clouds gradually clear behind passage of a frontal boundary. Breezy north- northwesterly winds prevail behind the front with gusts in the range of 20 to 30 knots, possibly even higher at times. These breezy conditions are expected to continue well into Friday night as well. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)... Latest SPC Mesoanalysis places a sfc low over the northwestern TX Panhandle, with a sfc cold front extending southwestward through eastern New Mexico. Out ahead of this sfc low, winds have begun to turn more south-southeasterly for South-Central Texas, resulting in a light breeze at the surface in increasing moisture return. High clouds from the west continue to stream over the region as an upper level low centered over the Four Corners will quickly dive southeast over eastern Oklahoma by Friday afternoon. The progressive nature of this system will not help our rain chances with the approaching cold front, as most of the lifting mechanisms remain to our north, and surface moisture return looks to be quite weak. The main story with the front will be gusty northwesterly winds, and elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions developing on Friday afternoon. The remainder of your Thursday will be quite nice, with temperatures topping out in the lower 70s for most, with plenty of sunshine, along with some scattered high clouds. Get the cameras ready, as a good sunset could be in the works this evening. For tonight, winds will become variable and almost calm at times over the Coastal Plains, stretching northwestward into the Hill Country. With increased sfc moisture, and lighter winds, we might see some patchy fog develop northwest of the San Antonio Metro and out over Kerr, Real, Bandera, and Kendall Counties by early Friday morning. Any sort of low clouds or fog should quickly mix out as a cold front sweeps through the CWA from northwest to southeast late morning- early afternoon. Winds will quickly pick up behind this boundary, sustained at 15 to 25 mph, and gusting to 35 mph or higher at times. Expect gusty winds to continue through sunset and even shortly thereafter. With a tight pressure gradient finally relaxing by about 06Z Saturday, we should see winds diminish by late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Cooler temperatures can be expected to start your Saturday, with 40s north and west, and 50s to the south and east. LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Most clouds are expected to dissipate by Saturday afternoon with partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower 60s across the Hill Country to near 70 across the southwest counties. The return of an east to southeasterly flow across all of South Central Texas brings increased moisture over the area on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Clouds are forecast to stay around for a longer period on Sunday morning, however, partly cloudy skies are expected to prevail on Sunday afternoon over a good portion of the area. Several upper level short waves are forecast to push across the area the first part of next week. However, dry weather conditions persist through the period. It will turn breezy on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons as surface high pressure dominates the eastern part of the United States and a mid to upper short waves over west Texas pushes across the Southern Plains. No expecting precipitation with these systems, however, can`t rule out patchy fog and drizzle/mist on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. A warming trend is expected next week with highs in the 80s almost everywhere across the area on Wednesday afternoon. FIRE WEATHER... Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected in the wake of a cold frontal passage on Friday. Northwesterly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are expected. Afternoon humidities in the 20s are expected for most areas with some spots in the teens across the Rio Grande Plains. The main threat area will be across the Hill Country to Rio Grande Plains to along the Escarpment. The greatest threat area for critical fire weather levels to be reached for several hours will be along and south of US Highway 90 and west of I-37 where the strongest winds and lowest humidities will be found. Additionally, a lack of significant wetting rains and mostly cured fuels due to recent hard freezes are found across most areas. Relative humidities will recover by the early evening hours across the entire region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 54 78 51 66 45 / - 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 52 79 51 67 44 / - - 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 54 81 51 68 46 / - - 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 52 74 48 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 55 79 49 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 53 77 49 65 44 / - 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 55 81 49 68 47 / - 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 53 79 50 67 44 / - - 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 52 78 52 67 44 / - 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 56 79 51 67 48 / - - 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 55 80 51 67 48 / - - 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...Brady Long-Term...Runyen

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