Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 021143 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 643 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 .UPDATE...
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Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/Issued 416 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021/ ..Tuesday Morning Forecast Discussion... SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/... With the cold front that pushed through the forecast area yesterday continuing to move southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico, a cooler airmass is in place across much of the region. Temperatures will be cooler this morning relative to the unseasonably warm past few days, with lows ranging from the upper 30s in far north Georgia to the upper 40s in south-central Georgia. More moisture is present across the southern portion of our area, with scattered light showers ongoing in portions of central Georgia. Another transition in the pattern is then expected today as an upper level shortwave over the ArkLaTex region moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a surface low associated with this shortwave will develop over the northwestern Gulf. As this system approaches our area, deep moisture will advect into north and central Georgia. Furthermore, as the surface low moves northeastward out of the Gulf, a broad area of isentropic lift in advance of the system will promote widespread rain showers. These showers will progressively spread northeastward through the forecast area throughout the day, with PoPs becoming categorical across central Georgia by this afternoon and the entire CWA by tonight. Instability values ahead of this system appear to be marginal but not entirely negligible -- enough to warrant a mention of a slight chance of thunderstorms along with the widespread showers in central and east Georgia during the late afternoon and evening. Model guidance continues to support the axis of heaviest rain falling over south-central Georgia this evening through Wednesday morning. Rainfall totals associated with this system will range from 2 to 2.5 inches along and south of a line roughly from Cusseta to Macon to Wren. Locally higher rainfall totals up to 3 inches will be possible. Rainfall totals will progressively decrease north of this line. Taking a look at antecedent conditions in the area of the heaviest forecast rainfall in central Georgia, soils are fairly dry and most river stations across the area are measuring normal streamflows. As a result, only isolated instances of flash flooding should be the extend of any hydrological issues. Widespread rain and overcast skies will keep high temperatures today mostly in the low 50s across north and central Georgia during the day today. Temperatures on Wednesday morning will lower into mainly the upper 30s to low 40s, with the exception of some mid 30s in the higher elevations of northeast Georgia. There is the possibility of a light rain/snow mix in the highest elevations of far northeast Georgia during the early morning hours on Wednesday before sunrise, but no accumulation of any wintry precipitation is expected. The axis of the upper level shortwave will clear the area on Wednesday morning, with precipitation coming to an end from west to east during the morning and early afternoon. Northwesterly flow and approaching high pressure behind the system will set up a cool and dry conditions on Wednesday and into the beginning of the extended period. King LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/... The long term period will be relatively quiet in the wake of the upcoming deluge for central/southern Georgia. Synoptically, a high- amplitude ridge will set up over the western CONUS, with a stout longwave trough axis through the east coast and western Atlantic placing the forecast area in a northwest flow pattern. The anticyclonic vorticity advection between these two systems will fuel subsidence in central Canada, forming a high pressure system that is progged to spill out into the eastern CONUS through the long term, helping to keep most of the long term period quiet and temperatures pretty seasonal. The only wrench in the machine is a mid-level cutoff low that will drift across the Four Corners region, underneath the broader upper- level ridge, on Thursday. This system will progress eastward towards Georgia, but model guidance shows it will mostly be deflected to the south with a surface low pressure forming in the Gulf. Nevertheless, moisture overrunning a frontal zone, will flow into the forecast area on Friday night through Saturday morning. The result of this overrunning moisture is still unclear with long-term guidance going back and forth on the extent of the precip from this system. For now, we`ll settling on roughly a 40 percent chance for rain showers, primarily on Saturday morning, with a chance for some non-accumulating rain/snow mix in the higher elevations. Thiem
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&& .AVIATION...
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12Z Update... Conditions are primarily VFR across north and central Georgia as the period begins, with mostly upper level clouds. 6-10 kt winds are currently shifting from NW to NE and will continue to shift towards E by 15-16Z. Widespread rain showers will build northeastward across the area throughout the day, arriving at CSG/MCN by 16-17Z and the ATL metro sites by 21-22Z. Showers will persist through the overnight hours and early Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings will develop as the rain arrives today, and then lower to IFR during the overnight hours, mainly after 03Z. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 54 39 62 38 / 60 90 60 0 Atlanta 51 40 60 40 / 80 90 50 0 Blairsville 51 36 59 35 / 30 80 40 0 Cartersville 54 39 61 37 / 70 90 40 0 Columbus 52 42 63 41 / 90 100 40 0 Gainesville 52 39 62 39 / 50 90 50 0 Macon 53 41 62 38 / 90 100 60 0 Rome 55 39 63 36 / 60 80 40 0 Peachtree City 52 40 62 39 / 90 90 50 0 Vidalia 53 44 59 41 / 90 100 70 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Thiem AVIATION...King

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