Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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140 FXUS62 KFFC 302333 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 733 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 216 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon into evening with main threats being gusty winds (40-50mph) and frequent lightning. - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected tomorrow afternoon as front pushes southward with marginal risk (level 1 of 5) in effect for isolated damaging wind gusts (60mph). - Localized flash flooding and/or nuisance flooding may accompany storms that develop. Discussion: For today, low clouds have taken longer to dissipate which could limit the development of thunderstorms this afternoon. Current satellite shows a cu field ~3-4kft which has resulted in isolated showers that have been slow to vertically develop. With the overall pattern largely unchanged, expecting showers and thunderstorms to be isolated in nature with the potential for strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. Of note are PWATs with the morning sounding showing 1.8" and the current RAP analysis showing an area of 1.8-2" PWAT values over western Georgia. With above average PWAT values and little to no shear, can expect these thunderstorms to be efficient rainfall producers with little to no movement thus increasing the potential for localized flash flooding. The western GA area will be the area to keep an eye on for flooding concerns based off the analysis. For tomorrow, expecting the pattern to begin to shift with the upper level trough swinging eastward and dragging a frontal boundary southward across our area Tuesday into Wednesday. This front will serve as an area of forcing over the area contributing the modest but not overly impressive shear and CAPE values. CAMs are suggesting a linear formation for these storms as they push across Georgia into the evening and early overnight. Of note is the forecast soundings show more of a long and skinny CAPE profile and PWAT values close to 2" which are indicative of the potential for water loading as well as increased risk for localized flash flooding. SPC and WPC both have the area in a MArginal Risk for severe weather and flooding respectively. Storms should limit temps to the upper 80s to low 90s tomorrow but overall still looking at a hot and humid short term. Hernandez && .LONG TERM...
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(Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 216 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Key Messages: - Near-normal moisture is expected on Wednesday. - Drier conditions are anticipated Thursday. - Lower confidence in forecast for Friday onward, associated with uncertainty on the potential for the development of low pressure near the panhandle of Florida. On Wednesday, moisture levels will be near seasonal normals across Georgia. As such, seasonally typical weather is anticipated, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely. An upper-level trough is forecast to be north of the region, with an area of locally stronger winds associated with this. This could further aid in the development of afternoon convection. There is high confidence in the potential for climatologically normal afternoon convection on Wednesday. On Thursday, moisture is forecast to decrease across the region, under the influence of building surface high pressure over the Appalachians eroding the deep-layer trough and moisture over Georgia, and especially over north Georgia. Because of this, there will be a decreased risk of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast confidence decreases on Friday through the weekend. Model guidance up until this point is in good agreement for the general trend of typical conditions that become drier into the end of the workweek. However, on Friday, model guidance begins to show disagreement with the arrival of a mid- to upper-level ridge from the west. The ECMWF shows a continuation of the trend from Thursday into early next week, with near-normal to below-normal moisture levels across Georgia. This would indicate the potential for lower precipitation chances, and decreased coverage of any potential thunderstorms that may develop. In contrast, the GFS suggests an increase in moisture across Georgia. The main difference driving this discrepancy is the models` handling of the potential for the development of low pressure over the panhandle of Florida/Gulf coast. The ECMWF does show the development of a low, but it maintains the low as a weak and broad low pressure system. The GFS suggests the potential for a strengthening of the low, as well as consolidation, size-wise, south of the panhandle of Florida. Should the GFS scenario play out, additional moisture would be pushed over the southeastern United States off of the Gulf through the weekend into early next week. The result would be higher than normal moisture levels and therefore also a likely increase in potential for showers and thunderstorms. It should be noted that the National Hurricane Center has a 20 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days from over the Gulf west of Florida to the Atlantic east of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. There is low forecast confidence for conditions over Georgia, particularly for Saturday into early next week, and this will likely remain the case until there is more certainty in the potential for development - or not - of any low pressure system or tropical cyclone to the south of the area. CRS
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&& .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Isolated SHRA and TSRA through evening. Low cigs across western forecast area early Tues, may not reach ATL. Unorganized line of tsra and shra move in tomorrow with precip starting as early as 16z in some place. Start time of precip tues very uncertain. SHRA may linger into late Tuesday night. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence thunderstorm timing Tues. Medium confidence Cigs tonight. High confidence all other elements. SM
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens 71 87 70 88 / 30 60 60 40 Atlanta 72 87 71 88 / 40 70 70 30 Blairsville 65 82 65 85 / 40 80 70 30 Cartersville 71 87 70 89 / 30 70 60 20 Columbus 71 88 72 89 / 40 50 30 40 Gainesville 72 86 70 87 / 30 80 70 30 Macon 71 87 72 88 / 30 50 50 50 Rome 71 87 70 90 / 30 80 60 20 Peachtree City 70 87 70 88 / 40 60 60 30 Vidalia 72 88 73 87 / 30 50 30 70
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&& .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....CRS AVIATION...SM