National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
947
FXUS62 KFFC 241130
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
730 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018


...updated for 12z aviation discussion...

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
IFR to occassional LIFR cig and vsby conditions plague northern
GA sites this morning with some sub ovc005 cigs and vsby of 1/2 to
1sm at a few sites...however expect conditions to improve through
IFR to MVFR Cigs by 18z as some drier air works into the low
levels. Surface low over central GA will shift east resulting in
winds maintaining a west to northwest heading through the day into
the overnight tonight. Some SHRA development is possible this
afternoon however much less coverage is expected with no TS
anticipated either...have included a tempo group at most north GA
sites for shra this afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions become
more prevalent this afternoon and evening.

//ATL
Confidence...12Z Update...

high on all elements

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

Short term period will be dominated by the slow moving cutoff
upper level low located over Nashville TN. Winds should slowly
shift out of the west for most of the area...but should be light.
With all the rain and high RH airmass trapped in the low levels,
some patchy fog may develop through the early morning hours and
have included in the grids. Will need to watch for possibility of
more widespread formation and possibly SPS or
Advisory..particularly North and Northeast GA. As the low slowly
works east, some drier air in the mid levels will work in from the
west and southwest for areas generally south of I20. North GA
looks to be socked in clouds and dreary weather for another day as
the low slowly traverses east Tuesday. With some daytime heating
Tue afternoon, showers should pop up across the area with chances
increasing the further north you go and closer to the upper low
which is supported by most of the short terms CAMS. Best chances
appear in the 1pm to 5pm timeframe but will generally be limited
to chance for now.

Wednesday appears to be a recovery day with a short wave ridge
moving over ahead of another digging trough.  Near normal temps but
pleasant conditions expected.

30

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

Active wave train pattern continues through the fcst period with
the main focus on the strength and timing of two shortwaves. The
first is with pretty good model consensus/consistency on swinging
through the area for Thursday. Have raised pops to likely for most
of CWA and included slight chance thunder mention given some
progged elevated instability (also how sensitive the environment
can be given any cloud breaks and increasing solar angle for this
time of year). Low level shear is lacking though deep layer values
are marginal enough to where we will need to monitor any
strong/severe potential for more organized convection or enhanced
updrafts. Should not be as much of a flooding/heavy rain issue
given how progressive it looks to be.

Next wave could be a bit less in amplitude though guidance has
less agreement on how far south the piece of energy digs or if it
cuts off going into late Friday/early Saturday. Carried general
slight pops until more confidence is reached or moisture return
increases.

The weekend for now looks pleasant and ridge dominated. Temps
rebound to back above normal with even upper 70s for most areas
Sunday/Monday.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  53  74  53 /  30  20   0  20
Atlanta         69  54  70  54 /  30  20   0  20
Blairsville     64  50  64  47 /  60  40  10  20
Cartersville    68  52  69  51 /  30  20   5  30
Columbus        73  56  74  55 /  10  10   0  10
Gainesville     67  54  70  52 /  40  20   5  20
Macon           73  54  75  53 /  10  10   0  10
Rome            69  53  69  51 /  30  20   5  30
Peachtree City  70  53  71  52 /  20  20   0  20
Vidalia         76  58  77  58 /  10   5   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...30