Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 181827 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 227 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 736 AM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021/ UPDATE... Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 445 AM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021/ SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/... As the short term period begins, a weak disturbance in the upper level flow is moving eastward across central Georgia. A surface low associated with this system is similarly moving northeastward across the Gulf Coast and towards the Atlantic Coast. The heaviest and most widespread showers are south and east of the forecast area as the short term period begins, but some isolated to scattered showers remain possible in the far southern tier through the remainder of the morning hours today. No instability is present across the area, so thunderstorms are not expected this morning. Any additional precipitation that occurs this morning is expected to stay south of a line from Columbus to Macon. Deeper moisture will be pushed to the south and east of our area as drier air and 850 mb cold air advection spread into north Georgia today. Low temperatures will start the morning in the 40s in north Georgia and in the 50s in central Georgia. Meanwhile, an upper level shortwave currently over the Great Lakes region will quickly drop southeastward into the Mississippi Valley this afternoon and towards Georgia later in the day. Precipitation chances are expected to be minimal with this system with only limited low level moisture over the forecast area. High temperatures this afternoon will run near to just below climatological normals across the area, primarily in the 70s. As the shortwave swings through Georgia on Monday, it will help push moisture further south and east away from the forecast area. A dry and seasonal day is expected on Monday as high pressure builds into the area. With highs in the 70s once again and dewpoints dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s during the afternoon, minimum relative humidity values will range from 25-30 percent. While outside of critical fire danger thresholds, the potential for lower RH values will need to be monitored in ensuing forecast updates. King LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/... The degree of moisture return across central Georgia on Tuesday remains in question as low-level flow becomes southwesterly and a 500-mb vort max traverses the area. The NAM is more optimistic than the GFS, as it advects 1.2-1.4 inches of PWAT across the southern third of the CWA, while the GFS limits PWATs to around 1 inch over our far southeastern counties. Models are continuing to produce meager instability at best, so just maintaining a slight chance for thunder across the far southeastern portion of the CWA on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a larger-scale upper-level trough will swing across the Great Lakes region, driving a cold front across the CWA and leading to breezy/gusty conditions. CAA in the wake of the front will be evident on Thursday morning, given lows in the mid-30s to lower 40s across much of the area, and lows right at freezing across the higher terrain of northeast Georgia. Wanted to draw attention to the possible issuance of a Frost or Freeze product for Thursday morning, as the Frost/Freeze program started on April 15th for the northeastern CWA. The upper-level pattern will transition to ridging for Thursday and Friday with high pressure building in across the area. This setup will favor increased fire danger concerns, as relative humidities are forecast to drop below 25% for several hours in the afternoon on both days. It looks like our next system to bring rain will arrive on Saturday, though models are at odds concerning where across the Southeast the moisture axis will lie. Martin && .AVIATION... 18Z Update... Some mid to high level clouds across the area this afternoon will clear out for Monday. No precip or restrictions to VSBYs expected. Winds will stay out of the NW at 10kt or less today and tonight. Will see wind speeds increase into the 10-14kt range Monday afternoon. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Confidence high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 49 75 50 / 0 5 0 5 Atlanta 73 51 73 52 / 0 5 0 5 Blairsville 68 42 67 43 / 5 10 0 0 Cartersville 72 46 72 47 / 5 5 0 5 Columbus 77 51 76 53 / 5 5 0 5 Gainesville 72 49 72 50 / 0 5 0 5 Macon 77 51 77 50 / 5 5 0 5 Rome 72 47 73 47 / 5 5 0 5 Peachtree City 74 48 74 49 / 0 5 0 5 Vidalia 79 57 78 56 / 30 5 5 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...01

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