Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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947 FXUS62 KFFC 241130 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 730 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 ...updated for 12z aviation discussion... .AVIATION... 12Z Update... IFR to occassional LIFR cig and vsby conditions plague northern GA sites this morning with some sub ovc005 cigs and vsby of 1/2 to 1sm at a few sites...however expect conditions to improve through IFR to MVFR Cigs by 18z as some drier air works into the low levels. Surface low over central GA will shift east resulting in winds maintaining a west to northwest heading through the day into the overnight tonight. Some SHRA development is possible this afternoon however much less coverage is expected with no TS anticipated either...have included a tempo group at most north GA sites for shra this afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions become more prevalent this afternoon and evening. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... high on all elements 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018/ SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/... Short term period will be dominated by the slow moving cutoff upper level low located over Nashville TN. Winds should slowly shift out of the west for most of the area...but should be light. With all the rain and high RH airmass trapped in the low levels, some patchy fog may develop through the early morning hours and have included in the grids. Will need to watch for possibility of more widespread formation and possibly SPS or Advisory..particularly North and Northeast GA. As the low slowly works east, some drier air in the mid levels will work in from the west and southwest for areas generally south of I20. North GA looks to be socked in clouds and dreary weather for another day as the low slowly traverses east Tuesday. With some daytime heating Tue afternoon, showers should pop up across the area with chances increasing the further north you go and closer to the upper low which is supported by most of the short terms CAMS. Best chances appear in the 1pm to 5pm timeframe but will generally be limited to chance for now. Wednesday appears to be a recovery day with a short wave ridge moving over ahead of another digging trough. Near normal temps but pleasant conditions expected. 30 LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/... Active wave train pattern continues through the fcst period with the main focus on the strength and timing of two shortwaves. The first is with pretty good model consensus/consistency on swinging through the area for Thursday. Have raised pops to likely for most of CWA and included slight chance thunder mention given some progged elevated instability (also how sensitive the environment can be given any cloud breaks and increasing solar angle for this time of year). Low level shear is lacking though deep layer values are marginal enough to where we will need to monitor any strong/severe potential for more organized convection or enhanced updrafts. Should not be as much of a flooding/heavy rain issue given how progressive it looks to be. Next wave could be a bit less in amplitude though guidance has less agreement on how far south the piece of energy digs or if it cuts off going into late Friday/early Saturday. Carried general slight pops until more confidence is reached or moisture return increases. The weekend for now looks pleasant and ridge dominated. Temps rebound to back above normal with even upper 70s for most areas Sunday/Monday. Baker && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 71 53 74 53 / 30 20 0 20 Atlanta 69 54 70 54 / 30 20 0 20 Blairsville 64 50 64 47 / 60 40 10 20 Cartersville 68 52 69 51 / 30 20 5 30 Columbus 73 56 74 55 / 10 10 0 10 Gainesville 67 54 70 52 / 40 20 5 20 Macon 73 54 75 53 / 10 10 0 10 Rome 69 53 69 51 / 30 20 5 30 Peachtree City 70 53 71 52 / 20 20 0 20 Vidalia 76 58 77 58 / 10 5 0 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...30

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