341
FXUS62 KFFC 150746
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
346 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024



...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Key Messages:

 - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon.

 - A warming trend will arrive Thursday as high temperatures return
to the mid and upper 80s.

Today through Thursday:

The driving forces behind today`s weather will be an upper level
trough and surface low over the southern Appalachians. Westerly flow
around both features will bring westerly winds to the region today.
Gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range can be expected between noon and 6
PM today. Once the winds and diurnal heating kick in this morning,
the ongoing low clouds and patchy fog should dissipate. By this
afternoon diurnal heating should be sufficient to produce MLCAPE
values between 400 and 800 J/kg. This instability should help widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop between noon
and 8 PM today. Given the modest instability and weak shear (~20
kt), severe weather isn`t expected. The best thunderstorms chances
should be over northern Georgia this afternoon where 700-500 mb
lapse rates will be highest (near 5.5 C/km). Smaller lapse rates and
narrow mid level CAPE profiles should make thunder harder to come by
in central Georgia. Any rainfall today is expected to be light,
brief and spotty in nature. Cloud cover should inhibit temperatures
today, especially in northern Georgia where highs in the 70s are
expected. More sunshine and a greater distance from the trough
should allow highs to reach the mid 80s from Macon southward.

Any lingering rain showers will dissipate quickly tonight with the
loss of diurnal heating. By Thursday, the upper level trough that
has been with us for a couple days will be replaced by a transient
upper level ridge. Subsidence from the ridge should bring fair skies
and dry weather to the region on Thursday. Temperatures should
respond accordingly by rising to 3 to 6 degrees above seasonal
averages. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 80s.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Beginning of the long term forecast sees our next weather system
moving into the area. By Friday morning, several of the 00Z
convective allowing guidance show a reasonable scenario, in which
moisture is being lifted isentropically across the area ahead of the
upper level low moving out of the southern Great Plains. This will
likely be relatively light to moderate rain, though can`t rule out
some elevated convective elements. Going forward, have chosen to
"cap" our PoPs a bit here in the CWA Friday night and Saturday, as
beginning to think we may see similar evolution convectively to
the weather system moving through the area now. Most models,
including ensembles, show a pretty sharp theta-e gradient down
towards the coast, and the development of the surface low in
tangent with the moving upper level low isn`t anything too
special. This keeps the surface mass response modest and the
theta-e gradient further south. This would likely be reinforced by
any rain/T-storm development along and north of the gradient with
rain-cooled air. Some of the deterministic guidance shows the
potential for MCS development upstream that would likely stay
along said theta-e gradient, which would keep the heaviest
rainfall and thunderstorms out of the CWA (though some rain is
likely to still occur). That all said, if that doesn`t play out,
there is certainly the potential to see some decent rainfall out
of the system as plenty of moisture returns, with the higher
probabilities towards central GA which would have the best chance
of seeing an organized convective system. QPF amounts are in the
1-3" range at this time, but understand that the overall potential
spread is high dependent on how convection plays out...and this
forecaster will fully admit to not being good enough to tell you
those details 48-72 hours out.

The system looks to finally lumber its way out by Sunday. Some
precip chances linger as the upper level trough still could form a
surface low off the coast, but guidance has shifted that a bit to be
less impactful to our CWA. We should get a few days of clearing
thanks to shortwave ridging that builds into the area. Moisture
begins to return by Tuesday thanks to upper level system to the
north, and PoP chances will slowly increase as diurnal thunderstorms
become possibly (summer is almost upon us). Our next system may be
impacting us by mid next week, but that is well out into the realm
of uncertainty. Temperatures on days without rainfall should be
pretty seasonable, generally within 5 degrees of climatology.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible
in the region through 12Z. Impacts are most probable at KMCN or
KCSG. Low ceilings (200-2500 ft AGL) and patchy fog will also be
possible. These conditions may impact any of the TAF sites for a
brief period, mainly between 09Z and 13Z Wednesday. A transition
to prevailing VFR conditions and more consistent west winds is
expected between 13Z and 18Z Wednesday. Isolated showers and
storms are possible between 16Z Wednesday and 02Z Thursday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Overall confidence in the ATL TAF is moderate.
Confidence in the ceiling, visibility and precipitation forecasts
is moderate.
High confidence in the wind forecast.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          79  61  86  62 /  30  10   0   0
Atlanta         80  61  86  65 /  30   0   0  10
Blairsville     72  57  79  57 /  60  20   0   0
Cartersville    78  58  84  61 /  40  10   0  10
Columbus        83  62  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     77  61  85  63 /  40  10   0   0
Macon           84  62  87  65 /  10  10   0   0
Rome            79  58  85  62 /  40  10   0  10
Peachtree City  80  60  86  63 /  20   0   0  10
Vidalia         86  66  88  67 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Albright