Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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503
FXUS62 KFFC 191121
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
721 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

A quiet but relatively warm start to the day with current
temperatures still in the 70s over many locations. Some mid level
clouds noted over east and southeast sections of the forecast area,
otherwise mostly clear. Low pops will be the rule for most of today
as precipitable water values drop below an inch for many locations
and 1.15 in at a maximum. CAPE values will also be reduced from
previous days with around 1000 J/KG for far eastern portions. Will
go with isolated pops for these areas, otherwise a dry forecast is
in store for today and this is supported well by hi res guidance.

A front will approach the area tonight and although its looks like
instability will abate by the time it gets to our area, a residual
line of showers will maintain itself. Will go low end chance for now
for the NW tier.

Area of enhanced moisture will settle into the remainder of North GA
for Monday. Instability will increase through the afternoon hours
with CAPE values approaching 1200 J/KG for west central portions.
This combined with PW values of 1.70 inches should allow for mid
range chance pops along the I85 corridor. It will be continued warm
through the short term with the highest temps this afternoon around
90 for the metro and lower 80s for Central GA.

Deese

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

The much-discussed upper ridge will dominate the forecast through
the coming week. Persistent dry weather and well above-normal
temperatures will be the result. The upper ridge will continue to
strengthen by late week with temperatures responding accordingly.
Low-to-mid 90s early week will thus be replaced by mid-to-upper 90s
to near 100 in central Georgia by late week into Memorial Day
weekend. Drought conditions will gradually worsen across central
Georgia during this time as the hot temperatures and dry weather
continue. Refer to the climate section below for record temperatures
for the coming week.

RW

CLIMATE...

Records for 05-19

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KATL      96 1938     49 1894     71 1996     42 1894
   KAHN      97 1962     60 2003     69 1902     43 1976
   KCSG      97 1962     70 1932     75 1930     48 1976
                1944
   KMCN      98 1965     63 1932     70 1980     45 1976
                                        1962
                                        1930

Records for 05-20

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      96 1941     60 1991     69 1943     46 1968
                1927                    1902
   KATL      94 1941     52 1894     70 1996     39 1894
                                        1902
   KCSG      98 1944     66 1932     71 2017     46 1976
                                        1962
                                        1915
   KMCN      98 1962     67 1991     71 1960     43 2007

Records for 05-21

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      98 1933     63 1905     71 1902     44 1954
   KATL      96 1941     57 1888     70 1987     44 1894
                                        1933
                                        1927
   KCSG      98 1941     66 1950     74 1902     48 1954
   KMCN      97 1962     68 1950     71 2017     44 2002
                1898                    2001
                                        1938

Records for 05-22

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KATL      94 1941     48 1883     70 1996     43 1883
                1938                    1941
   KAHN      99 1941     57 1967     70 1983     45 1993
   KCSG      99 1933     69 1967     74 1902     45 1954
   KMCN      97 1962     66 1967     71 1987     43 1993
                1898                    1983

Records for 05-23

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      99 1941     57 1967     69 1953     45 2002
   KATL      95 1941     56 1967     71 1941     40 1883
   KCSG      99 1933     59 1967     73 1983     49 1954
                                        1915
   KMCN      98 1956     56 1967     72 1938     42 2002
                1941                    1915

Records for 05-24

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KMCN      97 1960     65 1899     73 2000     46 1931
   KAHN      96 1912     65 1966     71 1998     42 1931
   KATL      95 1996     60 1895     72 2000     45 1892
   KCSG      99 1933     73 1977     74 1996     47 1892
                                        1933

Records for 05-25

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     100 1926     65 1979     71 2004     46 2013
                            1956                    1979
   KCSG      98 1912     71 1979     75 2000     51 1979
                            1956                    1931
   KMCN      97 2000     65 1923     74 2000     49 2013
                1960                                1979
                1953
   KATL      93 1960     63 1895     72 2004     46 1979
                1953                    1953

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR conditions to continue for this cycle with in general less
TSRA activity anticipated. In fact, have dropped VCSH at AHN and
MCN although this may need to be upgraded with subsequent
forecasts depending on if any storms develop. A secondary line
will approach overnight Sunday into Monday morning but confidence
in how much of this remains in tact is low. Will just plan on VCSH
aft 10Z for ATl for now with Prob30 from 14Z. Winds to remain on
the west side with low end gusts for ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

High on all elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  66  88  65 /   5  30  30   5
Atlanta         90  68  86  68 /   0  30  30   5
Blairsville     86  62  81  57 /  20  30  30   5
Cartersville    91  66  86  62 /   0  40  40   5
Columbus        92  67  89  70 /   0  20  30   5
Gainesville     88  66  85  64 /  10  30  30   5
Macon           93  66  91  67 /  10  10  20   5
Rome            91  66  86  62 /   5  40  40   5
Peachtree City  90  65  87  65 /   0  30  30   5
Vidalia         92  69  93  69 /  10  10  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Deese



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