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221
FXUS62 KFFC 010530
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
130 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

At a glance:

    - Patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms through the
      afternoon

    - Warmer and drier tomorrow

A shortwave mid-level trough and associated (atrophying) surface
front are progged to sweep across the Southeast through very late
tonight. For areas along and north of I-85, thunderstorm chances
are likely to be negligible for the remainder of the day, as "new"
cumulus formation in the wake of morning rainfall has been slow
and sparse. Best chances to see an isolated thunderstorm this
afternoon are for areas east of a line extending from Columbus to
Macon to Athens, where most favorable overlap of meager (1000-1500
J/kg) SBCAPE and lapse rates is located. Weak kinematics do not
support development of severe weather, but ponding on roads and
gusty winds are possible in any storms that form. Through the
morning, portions of north Georgia received as much as 9 tenths of
an inch (with locally higher amounts just over an inch) within
the heavier band of precipitation. For the remainder of the day,
an additional quarter to a half of an inch of rainfall is
forecast, as subsequent showers and storms will be patchier in
coverage. Highs today will be lower north of I-20, owing to
increased cloud cover and early coverage of showers and storms,
topping out in the upper-70s to near 80. To the south, expect
temperatures to surge into the low- to mid-80s.

Low-end chances for showers will linger until late tonight across
southeast central Georgia. Overnight lows will be relatively
warm, in the 50s to lower-60s. Fog development is likely in the
wake of precipitation for a few hours preceding and following
daybreak on Wednesday. Be cautious on the morning commute.

Expect clear and drier conditions tomorrow with surface high
pressure filling in behind the front. Highs tomorrow will be in
the 80s areawide, and near-90 across our far southern tier.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Key Messages:

 - Very warm and dry Thursday.

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return late in the
   week into the weekend, with continued warm temperatures.

An upper level ridge will build over the area on Thursday, then
pivot SE on Friday. Thursday is expected to be dry across the
area. This is also expected to be the warmest day of the period,
although Friday will be nearly as warm. High temperatures both
days will soar well into the 80s away from the mountains, with
some 90+ readings possible, particularly S of Macon and Columbus.
These highs will will be about 8 to 12 degrees above normal.

As the upper ridge shifts SE and weakens on Friday, a short wave
will moves NE across the OH Valley and Great Lakes region. The
combination of the approaching dynamic forcing and the warm, moist
air in place will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm
activity across much of the area (with the best chances across N
and N central GA). With the fairly weak dynamic energy,
thunderstorm activity is expected to remain mostly diurnal in
nature, with widespread organized thunderstorms not currently
anticipated. High temperatures will still be about 5 degrees above
normal.

SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Starting to see fog develop in extreme north GA that could
ultimately affect the TAF site ~10-12z just before sunrise.
Confidence is low on widespread fog, but very patchy dense fog
may become a concern. Normal afternoon cu field expected tomorrow,
but then VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period.
Winds shift to the east ~00z tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low confidence on fog development area.
High on all other elements.
Hernandez
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Athens          58  87  62  85 /   0  10   0  20
Atlanta         61  86  65  85 /   0  10   0  20
Blairsville     55  82  58  78 /   0   0  10  40
Cartersville    56  87  63  85 /   0   0   0  30
Columbus        62  90  66  89 /   0  10   0  10
Gainesville     60  85  63  82 /   0   0   0  30
Macon           60  89  65  87 /   0  10   0  10
Rome            56  88  63  85 /   0   0   0  40
Peachtree City  58  88  64  86 /   0  10   0  20
Vidalia         64  89  65  90 /   0  10   0  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...Hernandez