Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000 FXUS63 KFGF 021544 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 944 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 944 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Still cloudy over much of northwestern MN currently, but should slowly clear out during the day. Some gusty west winds will help continue to boost temps up into the 40s and even low 50s today. Cold front will be coming down later this afternoon but with southern Manitoba readings currently in the upper 30s the boundary is still a ways off. UPDATE Issued at 544 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Clearing has progressed into areas along and west of the Red River Valley now, so this area should start the day sunny. A little more cloud cover will linger east of the Valley this morning. Gusty winds are still on track for the day, especially to the west of the Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Low impacts are expected, with the main challenges in this portion of the forecast being winds and temperatures. The 500mb flow starts out near zonal, but gradually shifts a little more to the west-northwest as 500mb heights start to build (especially over the Rockies). There is a subtle short wave that tracks across southern Canada today, as a weak surface low tracks across the same area. Only seeing mid and high level clouds upstream, so not anticipating much more than that today. The bigger story will be the gusty early morning winds. These winds are currently from the southwest, but they will gradually turn more west, then northwest, as the surface low tracks across southern Canada. Highs should reach up into the 40s to low 50s across the entire FA, but it may not feel quite that warm due to the gusty winds. Wind speeds will decrease during the evening, then become light in some areas (especially east of the Red River Valley) overnight. Some guidance is showing areas of fog developing, but confidence in that is pretty low this far out. Models are also showing another weak 500mb short wave tracking across the FA, which could bring a little more cloud cover (which may help limit the fog potential). Winds switch around to the south-southeast on Wednesday, with slightly cooler (but still mild) highs anticipated. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Across the extended period, look for much warmer temperatures and abnormally dry conditions. No weather related impacts are anticipated through next Monday. This will be in response to a rather amplified H5 ridge to our west, which will provide tranquil downstream conditions into our CWA. Thursday and Friday, the ridge axis remains centered over eastern Montana and western North Dakota. Temperatures respond accordingly, with highs in the 40s to low 50s across the forecast area. The warmest temperatures will occur from Valley City southward and westward. The ridge axis slides east and weakens heading into the weekend, with our warmest temperatures across the forecast period occuring on Saturday. We could see highs nearing 60 degrees for areas south of I-94 in southeastern North Dakota, with widespread upper 40s to middle 50s elsewhere. Another day of widespread upper 40s to near 60 degrees occurs Sunday as the ridge weakens further and pushes to our east. Continued dry weather prevails as there are currently no signals in the ensembles for precipitation through Sunday. Heading into Monday, uncertainty surrounds the forecast as a pattern change becomes possible. Several ensemble members hint at developing southwest flow in the wake of the upper ridge. If this pattern develops, we would see an increase in moisture to the Central and Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 544 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Gusty winds will continue throughout the day, and they will switch from the southwest to west to northwest. KGFK/KFAR have been slightly lower than expected overnight, as they are likely sheltered a bit in the immediate Valley. However, even these two sites should see some gusts through the day. Guidance brings down some lower MVFR ceilings late tonight. There was also some guidance showing the potential for areas of fog late tonight. However, not as certain about the fog potential due to the expected cloud cover then. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...Lynch AVIATION...Godon

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