Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000 FXUS65 KFGZ 191050 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 350 AM MST Mon Apr 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Warmer and drier weather will return for today and Tuesday, with windy conditions Wednesday. A brief unsettled period is possible Thursday into Friday, before warmer weather returns for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...An upper low that brought showers to the area on Sunday has moved well away from the region, with dry and stable northwest flow in place for today. A weak s/wv will move into NE Utah later this afternoon, bringing locally windy conditions to the northern zones for a few hours. Fuel moisture is questionable in the area, but a few spots of near critical fire weather conditions may develop over the Black Mesa. Tuesday remains breezy and dry, with flow aloft turning westerly. By Wednesday, a trough moving into he southern Great Basin will bring windy weather to our area. Low dewpoints will lead to potential critical fire weather conditions on this day as well, we will wait another day to see how fuel moisture plays out, before issuing any FWX products. This trough lingers over the area Thursday and Friday, with marginally higher dewpoints and lighter winds. A slight chance of showers is possible each day, due to the cooler air aloft. A s/wv ridge Saturday breaks down quickly as another trough brings windy weather back the area Sunday and Monday, with another chance of rain and snow showers. && .AVIATION...For the 12z package...Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Light winds this morning will become west at 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts after 19Z. These gusty winds will continue through about 06Z Tuesday along and east of higher terrain. Low- Level Wind Shear is likely after 03Z in areas where the inversion sets up. This will mostly affect areas along and NE of a KGCN-KJTC line. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather with slightly warmer temperatures on Monday and Tuesday. West winds will be gusty this afternoon, with near critical fire weather conditions along the Utah/Arizona border. Tuesday will see breezy southwest winds. Wednesday through Friday...Continued dry weather through the week. Strong and gusty southwest winds combined with very low RH may lead to potential critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday. Breezy southwest afternoon winds continue Thursday and Friday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...DB FIRE WEATHER...DB For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff

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