Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000 FXUS63 KFSD 021129 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 529 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 356 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Satellite this morning shows cirrus working across the southern portion of the area. Southwesterly winds are already breezy given the tight pressure gradient between a weak surface boundary in our area and high pressure over the Midwest. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph have been observed with gusts to 30 mph. Locally stronger winds have been noted across portions of the Buffalo Ridge, thanks to the topographic enhancement. Expect this to continue through mid morning. Temperatures through 09z are fairly mild as well, in the lower 20s to mid 30s. For the rest of today, bumped up high temperatures a bit from previous forecast, but still leaned toward the 50th percentile of guidance for areas with snow cover, and 75th for those areas with little to no snow. Expect highs from the mid 40s (east) to upper 50s (southern Missouri River Valley). Some locations in northeastern NE, far southeastern SD and far western IA could see 60 degrees this afternoon. Breezy conditions remain in place through the day, transitioning from southerly to westerly by the end of the day behind the aforementioned boundary. Overall, winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph are likely through the early afternoon, with the highest winds along the Buffalo Ridge. Winds taper into the evening. Tonight, winds become light and somewhat variable overnight with the weakening gradient. Given the warm temperatures today and expected snow melt, have introduced patchy fog across the area through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. This does look most likely for areas east of I-29, again with the greatest snow depth/most snow to melt. Lows fall into the 20s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 356 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 The main story of the extended forecast is ridging in place across most of the Plains states through the end of the week, with a couple of weak waves passing through. Expect dry conditions. Guidance continues to show a closed low across the southwestern US into the southern Plains, and is expected to stay south of our area - although we could see some cloud cover and breezy winds. Models show a mid level wave and low pressure moving into the area Sunday night/Monday, but given the model differences in strength, location, and timing, have left the blend as is and will keep this portion of the forecast dry. Many ensemble members keep us dry as well. Temperature-wise Wednesday, again went closer to the 50th percentile of guidance for areas with robust snow cover, and 75th percentile for areas where snow as melted. Sunshine prevails across the area, with temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 60s. Raised highs a bit from the NBM guidance for Thursday through Saturday in collaboration with neighboring offices, which puts us well above normal. Highs range from near 50 to the mid 60s into early next week. Lows remain mild, mainly in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Dry conditions and breezy periods could lead to enhanced fire danger for the weekend, particularly for areas west of the James River which have had the most time to dry out and the least snow cover. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 LLWS is possible through mid-morning at KFSD and KSUX while the low level jet remains strong. Winds will remain strong through the day today, sustained 10-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots at times. Higher sustained winds and gusts are occurring and expected along the Buffalo Ridge. These winds have led to some patchy blowing snow across southwestern MN, which could lead to MVFR to IFR conditions for a short period of time into mid-morning. Winds turn westerly through the day, behind a surface boundary, becoming light and variable overnight. VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday morning; however, model guidance and soundings show the potential for stratus and fog development toward the end of the period. Have left this out of the TAFs for now, as confidence in timing and coverage is low at this time. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SG LONG TERM...SG AVIATION...SG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.