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000
FXUS63 KFSD 021129
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
529 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

Satellite this morning shows cirrus working across the southern
portion of the area. Southwesterly winds are already breezy given
the tight pressure gradient between a weak surface boundary in our
area and high pressure over the Midwest. Sustained winds of 15-20
mph have been observed with gusts to 30 mph. Locally stronger winds
have been noted across portions of the Buffalo Ridge, thanks to the
topographic enhancement. Expect this to continue through mid
morning. Temperatures through 09z are fairly mild as well, in the
lower 20s to mid 30s.

For the rest of today, bumped up high temperatures a bit from
previous forecast, but still leaned toward the 50th percentile of
guidance for areas with snow cover, and 75th for those areas with
little to no snow. Expect highs from the mid 40s (east) to upper 50s
(southern Missouri River Valley). Some locations in northeastern NE,
far southeastern SD and far western IA could see 60 degrees this
afternoon.

Breezy conditions remain in place through the day, transitioning
from southerly to westerly by the end of the day behind the
aforementioned boundary. Overall, winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to
35 mph are likely through the early afternoon, with the highest
winds along the Buffalo Ridge. Winds taper into the evening.

Tonight, winds become light and somewhat variable overnight with the
weakening gradient. Given the warm temperatures today and expected
snow melt, have introduced patchy fog across the area through the
overnight hours into Wednesday morning. This does look most likely
for areas east of I-29, again with the greatest snow depth/most
snow to melt. Lows fall into the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

The main story of the extended forecast is ridging in place across
most of the Plains states through the end of the week, with a couple
of weak waves passing through. Expect dry conditions. Guidance
continues to show a closed low across the southwestern US into the
southern Plains, and is expected to stay south of our area -
although we could see some cloud cover and breezy winds. Models show
a mid level wave and low pressure moving into the area Sunday
night/Monday, but given the model differences in strength, location,
and timing, have left the blend as is and will keep this portion of
the forecast dry. Many ensemble members keep us dry as well.

Temperature-wise Wednesday, again went closer to the 50th percentile
of guidance for areas with robust snow cover, and 75th percentile
for areas where snow as melted. Sunshine prevails across the area,
with temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 60s. Raised highs a bit
from the NBM guidance for Thursday through Saturday in collaboration
with neighboring offices, which puts us well above normal. Highs
range from near 50 to the mid 60s into early next week. Lows remain
mild, mainly in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Dry conditions and breezy periods could lead to enhanced fire danger
for the weekend, particularly for areas west of the James River which
have had the most time to dry out and the least snow cover.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

LLWS is possible through mid-morning at KFSD and KSUX while the
low level jet remains strong. Winds will remain strong through the
day today, sustained 10-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots at times.
Higher sustained winds and gusts are occurring and expected along
the Buffalo Ridge. These winds have led to some patchy blowing
snow across southwestern MN, which could lead to MVFR to IFR
conditions for a short period of time into mid-morning.

Winds turn westerly through the day, behind a surface boundary,
becoming light and variable overnight. VFR conditions are expected
through Wednesday morning; however, model guidance and soundings
show the potential for stratus and fog development toward the end
of the period. Have left this out of the TAFs for now, as
confidence in timing and coverage is low at this time.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SG
LONG TERM...SG
AVIATION...SG