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000
FXUS63 KFSD 140351
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1051 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Light snow continues to work south across southwestern MN and east
central SD this evening. Area DOT cameras along the Hwy 14
corridor, as well as social media reports, show anywhere from a
trace to up to a half inch of snow accumulation. Accumulations
thus far have been predominantly on grassy areas and elevated
surfaces. Additionally, cameras and automated stations in this
area show reduced visibility and lower stratus as the band works
through, with Marshall, MN dropping to 1 1/2 miles of visibility
for a bit during the band. This first band is now draped across
Pipestone, Murray, and Cottonwood counties, with the next band
along the Hwy 14 corridor. All that said, have increased snow
amounts slightly for this region and will continue to monitor for
additional adjustments.

Those will travel plans along Hwy 14, across southwestern MN, on
I-29 north of Colman should be aware of quickly changing
conditions, and take proper safety precautions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Early afternoon observation sites reveal wind speeds have been
teeter tottering around wind advisory levels, but have not been
consistent enough to warrant issuing an advisory over. On radar,
scattered sprinkles/flurries have been evident across eastern SD and
western MN, with observations intermittently reporting this activity
reaching the ground. Questions remain about the full extent as the
radar beam is likely overshooting a lot of the sprinkles/flurries,
but with the upper level low continuously sending lobes of vorticity
overhead sprinkles/flurries will likely remain possible. As for
winds, expect them to decrease after sunset while remaining a touch
breezy into the overnight period.

A round of light snowfall overnight remains possible across far east-
central SD and SW MN, but models have been trending this activity
downwards and more into central MN. The activity over southern ND is
what needs to be watched, as this is what would drift into our area
as the upper level low begins to move southwards. For the
aforementioned areas, expecting snowfall accumulations to remain
minimal, most likely under a quarter of an inch.

As the atmospheric pattern remains largely unchanged for the region,
expect much of the same for Wednesday but without the
sprinkle/flurry activity. Thankfully, the surface pressure gradient
also loosens its grip slightly, so while the winds will remain
breezy they will be weaker than they were today. Also, mid-level
moisture doesn`t look as impressive, so expect some clearing skies
by the late morning which will bump up our temperatures a couple
degrees towards the upper 40s. Into the overnight period, the next
upper level low begins to move towards the region, causing some low
level moisture to be advected into the region by the exiting upper
level low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

For Thursday, some WAA in the mid-levels will likely result in an
ever so slightly warmer day, and it also looks to be the least windy
day for this forecast period. During the afternoon, the next
approaching upper wave looks to start produce rainfall in central
SD, and models have had a slight shift northwards to possibly bring
rainfall to areas along the MO River valley along the SD/NE/IA
border throughout the day on Friday.

Ensemble solutions are starting to converge towards a similar
solution for the weekend, with no changes made to the given blended
guidance. Overall, the theme for the weekend continues to be below
average temperatures though a slight warming trend by Sunday, with a
slight chance for precipitation on Monday as a cold front looks to
move through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Low VFR to MVFR ceilings are expected through the period for most
of the area thanks to an upper low to our north continuing to push
stratus south. Still some question as to how far south the lower
cloud deck reaches, with the lowest confidence near/along the Hwy
20 corridor. Ergo, have omitted the lower deck from the forecast
at KSUX.

Snow showers and flurries will continue to work south across the
area tonight, leading to brief MVFR or IFR ceilings and
visibility. Have seen some light accumulations across far eastern
SD and southwestern MN this evening, so can`t rule out a trace of
snow elsewhere as it moves south.

Northwest winds are remaining breezy this evening with sustained
winds around 15 knots. However, gusts have largely dropped off for
now. Expect gusts to return by early Wednesday, with breezy
conditions continuing through approximately sunset.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SG
SHORT TERM...APT
LONG TERM...APT
AVIATION...SG