Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000 FXUS63 KFSD 140351 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1051 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 804 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Light snow continues to work south across southwestern MN and east central SD this evening. Area DOT cameras along the Hwy 14 corridor, as well as social media reports, show anywhere from a trace to up to a half inch of snow accumulation. Accumulations thus far have been predominantly on grassy areas and elevated surfaces. Additionally, cameras and automated stations in this area show reduced visibility and lower stratus as the band works through, with Marshall, MN dropping to 1 1/2 miles of visibility for a bit during the band. This first band is now draped across Pipestone, Murray, and Cottonwood counties, with the next band along the Hwy 14 corridor. All that said, have increased snow amounts slightly for this region and will continue to monitor for additional adjustments. Those will travel plans along Hwy 14, across southwestern MN, on I-29 north of Colman should be aware of quickly changing conditions, and take proper safety precautions. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Early afternoon observation sites reveal wind speeds have been teeter tottering around wind advisory levels, but have not been consistent enough to warrant issuing an advisory over. On radar, scattered sprinkles/flurries have been evident across eastern SD and western MN, with observations intermittently reporting this activity reaching the ground. Questions remain about the full extent as the radar beam is likely overshooting a lot of the sprinkles/flurries, but with the upper level low continuously sending lobes of vorticity overhead sprinkles/flurries will likely remain possible. As for winds, expect them to decrease after sunset while remaining a touch breezy into the overnight period. A round of light snowfall overnight remains possible across far east- central SD and SW MN, but models have been trending this activity downwards and more into central MN. The activity over southern ND is what needs to be watched, as this is what would drift into our area as the upper level low begins to move southwards. For the aforementioned areas, expecting snowfall accumulations to remain minimal, most likely under a quarter of an inch. As the atmospheric pattern remains largely unchanged for the region, expect much of the same for Wednesday but without the sprinkle/flurry activity. Thankfully, the surface pressure gradient also loosens its grip slightly, so while the winds will remain breezy they will be weaker than they were today. Also, mid-level moisture doesn`t look as impressive, so expect some clearing skies by the late morning which will bump up our temperatures a couple degrees towards the upper 40s. Into the overnight period, the next upper level low begins to move towards the region, causing some low level moisture to be advected into the region by the exiting upper level low. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 For Thursday, some WAA in the mid-levels will likely result in an ever so slightly warmer day, and it also looks to be the least windy day for this forecast period. During the afternoon, the next approaching upper wave looks to start produce rainfall in central SD, and models have had a slight shift northwards to possibly bring rainfall to areas along the MO River valley along the SD/NE/IA border throughout the day on Friday. Ensemble solutions are starting to converge towards a similar solution for the weekend, with no changes made to the given blended guidance. Overall, the theme for the weekend continues to be below average temperatures though a slight warming trend by Sunday, with a slight chance for precipitation on Monday as a cold front looks to move through the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Low VFR to MVFR ceilings are expected through the period for most of the area thanks to an upper low to our north continuing to push stratus south. Still some question as to how far south the lower cloud deck reaches, with the lowest confidence near/along the Hwy 20 corridor. Ergo, have omitted the lower deck from the forecast at KSUX. Snow showers and flurries will continue to work south across the area tonight, leading to brief MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibility. Have seen some light accumulations across far eastern SD and southwestern MN this evening, so can`t rule out a trace of snow elsewhere as it moves south. Northwest winds are remaining breezy this evening with sustained winds around 15 knots. However, gusts have largely dropped off for now. Expect gusts to return by early Wednesday, with breezy conditions continuing through approximately sunset. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SG SHORT TERM...APT LONG TERM...APT AVIATION...SG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.