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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KFWD 021139
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
539 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Ongoing showers continue to move eastward this morning and should
exit the area within the next hour or so. Skies have quickly
cleared across much of the area with sunny, cloud-less skies
expected area-wide by mid to late morning. Temperatures will warm
into the mid 50s to low 60s by this afternoon.

We`ll be monitoring the potential for fog late tonight through
early Wednesday morning, as light winds and clear skies will
create optimal radiational cooling conditions. However,
confidence was still too low to include in the forecast for now.
Otherwise, a cool night is expected tonight with low temperatures
in the 30s.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tonight/

Widely scattered showers have developed in response to an
approaching upper low. Coverage will increase slightly over the
next couple of hours, particularly east of I-35 where ascent and
moisture are most appreciable. Showers will gradually move
eastward with the slow movement of the upper low through early
Tuesday morning with all activity exiting the area shortly after
sunrise.

Any residual cloud cover will gradually erode Tuesday morning as
drier air filters into the region. Pleasant weather is expected
for the remainder of the day with afternoon temperatures warming into
the mid 50s to low 60s under sunny skies. Light winds and clear
skies will allow for optimal radiational cooling Tuesday night
with temperatures bottoming out in the 30s area-wide.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 259 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/
/Wednesday through The Weekend/

Generally tranquil conditions are anticipated across North and
Central Texas through the long term period. There will be a quick
opportunity for rain and a few isolated thunderstorms along the
Red River and east of I-35 Thursday and Friday. Outside of a
brief cool down for some on Friday and Saturday, temperatures will
largely be above normal for early March.

Wednesday morning will feature cool and possibly foggy conditions
for the area thanks to clear skies, light winds and recent
rainfall. At this juncture, we`ll abstain from mentioning fog in
the worded forecast, but depending on higher resolution model
simulations today, it may be prudent to include patchy fog across
East Texas. During the afternoon hours, a slight westerly
component to the southerly breezes may be sufficient to nudge
temperatures into the mid 70s near/west of the U.S. HWY 281
corridor. Elsewhere, full insolation coupled with modest southerly
flow will equate to daytime highs in the low to mid 60s. While
southerly breezes will diminish in magnitude through most of the
night Wednesday into early Thursday, speeds may increase around
daybreak and upset what would otherwise be another ideal
radiational cooling night. Overnight lows are forecast to fall
into the 40s for most areas.

Winds will increase through the day on Thursday as will mid/upper
level cloud cover across the Red River in advance of our next
upper system currently churning just offshore California. Some
lower level clouds may stream in across East Texas as well. While
southerly winds typically draw a maritime airmass northward into
our region, moisture advection will only yield dew points in the
40s. With freeze cured fuels in abundance and winds increasing
into the 15 to 20 mph range, there will be a potential for
increased fire spread. Outdoor burning will need to be monitored
as dormant winter vegetation is cured and available.

Rain chances increase late Thursday into early Friday and the
latest forecast package has trimmed PoPs just a tad below the
the latest blended guidance. As mentioned above, moisture
advection looks meager and forecast soundings indicate a
pronounced layer of dry air below mid/upper level saturation
implying most of what falls may be in the form of virga. PoPs
have been capped at around 45-50% (though this may be generous),
with the best opportunity for rain being across extreme Northeast
Texas. Locations west of I-35 and south of I-20 will likely miss
out on this potential for wetting rains and the fire weather
threat may be heightened post-FROPA on Friday...more on this
shortly. Forecast soundings do indicate lapse rates in excess of
7 C/km and as a result, the mention of thunder has been retained
in the grids late Thursday into Friday where high-based
thunderstorms may develop.

As rain chances shift east of the area, a front will slice
southward through our region during the daylight hours on Friday.
While cold air advection will take place for most areas resulting
in highs in the 60s, locations west of I-45 and south of I-20
will likely be the recipient of compressional warming and thus
daytime highs in the mid 70s. Northwest winds of near 25 mph will
once again enhance the fire weather threat and given the abundance
of 1 and 10 hour fuels, we could see an increase in fire
activity. Moreover, deterministic NBM dew point temperatures
appear a tad inflated for a Pacific frontal passage and I`ve
hedged toward the NBM 10th percentile/CONSMOS values for the Td
grids on Friday. For now, we`ll monitor conditions, but it`s
possible that Grassland Fire Danger statements will be needed at
least on Friday.

Saturday will feature cooler conditions area-wide with highs in
the mid 60s...about 5-7 degrees below normal. Fortunately, it
appears that winds will abate some and we`ll warm quickly back up
into the 70s on Sunday. All in all, the weekend is shaping up to
be quite pleasant for any socially distanced outdoor activities
thanks to shortwave ridging overhead keeping rain chances near
zero. Next week promises much of the same temperature wise with
balmy overnight lows and mild daytime highs. I have trended
temperatures above NBM guidance and closer to the model consensus
which typically performs better during breezy/more humid
overnight conditions. As longwave troughing develops to the west,
the surface pressure gradient will tighten. The end result will be
increased south winds. Moisture advection may be more promising
with next week`s southerly flow regime and that could promote a
greater coverage of wetting rains (or at least the potential).
While unlikely to be a widespread rain event, this may serve to at
least keep more significant fire weather potential in check.

Bain

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Showers have ended across all terminals and skies have cleared
over much of the forecast area. VFR is expected through the
remainder of the TAF period with northerly winds near 5 to 7 knots
turning out of the south by late this afternoon. We`re monitoring
the potential for fog late tonight/early Wednesday morning.
However, confidence is still too low to include any mention in the
TAF for now.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  38  68  45  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                59  35  66  42  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               56  33  62  40  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
Denton              59  36  68  43  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            58  35  66  41  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              59  38  68  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             57  34  64  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           57  36  65  44  72 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              59  35  67  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       60  34  71  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$