Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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004 FXUS64 KFWD 231032 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 532 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Tonight/ Low level moisture was surging northward behind a lifting warm front early this morning. This was resulting in extensive low clouds, patchy fog and drizzle with some visibility restrictions between 1/2 and 1 mile across parts of Central Texas. The atmosphere across North and Central Texas will become favorable for thunderstorm development through the day due to increasing large scale lift and destabilization associated with an approaching upper trough. Mid level lapse rates were already around 7 deg C/km and will increase even more through the day. Nearly all guidance suggests that storms will likely not develop until about midday across the western CWA once the upper trough axis reaches eastern New Mexico. The first storms will likely be elevated above a cap of warm air. However, the cap should erode quickly during the afternoon due to increasing large scale ascent and forcing along the dry line. Shear profiles will support long lived updrafts capable of large hail. Mid level dry layer will also support the formation of downbursts. The tornado potential is a bit less uncertain since extensive cloud cover will limit low level destabilization, however, backed surface flow near the triple point will be more than adequate for rotating updrafts. Therefore we will keep all modes of severe weather mentioned with the most favorable time frame for severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours and the most favored location along and east of the I-35 corridor. Storm chances will decrease from west to east this evening with the passage of the upper trough axis, but there may be enough lingering moisture and instability behind the departing system for a few storms to develop along the cold front, especially near the Red River. Temperatures today will be warmer than Thursday even though it will remain cloudy due to strong low level warm air advection. Highs will range from the upper 60s in the northeast to around 80 across the west where clouds should clear behind the dryline in the afternoon. Lows tonight will be fairly mild, ranging from the mid 50s in the northeast to the lower 60s in the southeast. 79 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 231 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021/ /Saturday and Beyond/ A cold front will be clearing the southeastern-most zones around daybreak Saturday as the Friday system and associated precipitation heads for the Mississippi Valley. A 10 to 15 degree dewpoint drop is expected behind the front with values in the 40s and 50s by afternoon. This should make for pleasant weather over the weekend with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s and 80s. In fact, with an upper ridge expected to pass overhead, some of the western counties will see high temperatures near 90 both Sunday and Monday. Return flow will ramp up Sunday night into Monday due to lee side pressure falls associated with the next upper level storm system, which will move from California eastward through the Rockies during the first part of next week. Breezy and warm conditions may create some elevated fire weather concerns both Sunday and Monday afternoons for areas along and west of Highway 281. A northward surge of Gulf moisture will then occur on Tuesday as the leading edge of the system to our west begins to emerge in the Plains, with a swath of 1.5" PWATs spreading in from the south. It looks like a dryline may set up somewhere to our west, though the exact location will depend on how progressive the upper level system is. The current thinking is that the dryline will be well to our west, but close enough to keep at least a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for Tuesday late afternoon-evening, when a lead wave is progged to lift northeast across West-Central Texas. The upper trough will slowly and steadily approach from the west Tuesday night through Wednesday. Dryline storms may subside Tuesday evening, but convection would likely get going again overnight as the low level jet intensifies and larger scale ascent arrives with the trough. The highest POPs with this package will hence be Tuesday night into early Wednesday, which is right in the middle of the model spread with regard to timing. Precipitation would gradually end from west to east sometime Wednesday night or early Thursday. There is still a bit of uncertainty due to the large timing spread among guidance, so there may be some adjustments with regard to the onset and end time of next week`s rain/storm event in future forecasts. Either way, there should be enough shear and instability present (and given the time of year) for at least a low-end severe threat to exist. Higher severe probabilities would depend on several other unknowns, which we should gather more information on this weekend and early next week. A dry, northwest flow pattern will arrive in the wake of the mid- week system, bringing what looks to be rain-free weather with seasonable temperatures next Friday through the following weekend. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Low ceilings/visibility will be the primary aviation weather concern this morning, thunderstorms will be the main concern this afternoon, followed by a wind shift associated with a cold front tonight. MVFR to IFR ceilings covered all of North and Central Texas early this morning. These ceilings will remain in place through the afternoon until a dryline moves in from the west followed by a cold front later tonight. Some visibility restrictions due to fog and drizzle will also continue this morning, mainly across parts of Central Texas. VFR conditions are expected early this evening and overnight. Model guidance continues to be in surprisingly good agreement that storms will quickly develop early this afternoon near the I-35 corridor with the the best window of time for impacts at the terminals between 18Z and 22Z. After 22Z, the best storm chances will shift eastward followed by the passage of the upper trough axis. Once the trough axis passes, a cold front will move in from the northwest, resulting in a northwest windshift between 07 and 08Z at the Metroplex TAF sites and slightly later in Waco. Ahead of the front, a southerly wind will continue in the 7 to 13 knot range this morning and between 13 and 17 knots this afternoon along with some higher gusts. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 56 76 52 83 / 100 50 0 0 0 Waco 76 56 77 51 84 / 100 40 0 0 0 Paris 69 57 73 49 77 / 100 90 0 0 0 Denton 72 56 75 49 82 / 100 40 0 0 0 McKinney 72 56 74 50 80 / 100 70 0 0 0 Dallas 75 57 77 53 83 / 100 70 0 0 0 Terrell 73 57 74 50 80 / 100 70 0 0 0 Corsicana 75 57 76 52 82 / 100 70 0 0 0 Temple 76 55 78 51 84 / 100 30 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 75 55 76 49 85 / 90 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

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