Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000 FXUS64 KFWD 021139 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 539 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Ongoing showers continue to move eastward this morning and should exit the area within the next hour or so. Skies have quickly cleared across much of the area with sunny, cloud-less skies expected area-wide by mid to late morning. Temperatures will warm into the mid 50s to low 60s by this afternoon. We`ll be monitoring the potential for fog late tonight through early Wednesday morning, as light winds and clear skies will create optimal radiational cooling conditions. However, confidence was still too low to include in the forecast for now. Otherwise, a cool night is expected tonight with low temperatures in the 30s. Barnes Previous Discussion: /Through Tonight/ Widely scattered showers have developed in response to an approaching upper low. Coverage will increase slightly over the next couple of hours, particularly east of I-35 where ascent and moisture are most appreciable. Showers will gradually move eastward with the slow movement of the upper low through early Tuesday morning with all activity exiting the area shortly after sunrise. Any residual cloud cover will gradually erode Tuesday morning as drier air filters into the region. Pleasant weather is expected for the remainder of the day with afternoon temperatures warming into the mid 50s to low 60s under sunny skies. Light winds and clear skies will allow for optimal radiational cooling Tuesday night with temperatures bottoming out in the 30s area-wide. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 259 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/ /Wednesday through The Weekend/ Generally tranquil conditions are anticipated across North and Central Texas through the long term period. There will be a quick opportunity for rain and a few isolated thunderstorms along the Red River and east of I-35 Thursday and Friday. Outside of a brief cool down for some on Friday and Saturday, temperatures will largely be above normal for early March. Wednesday morning will feature cool and possibly foggy conditions for the area thanks to clear skies, light winds and recent rainfall. At this juncture, we`ll abstain from mentioning fog in the worded forecast, but depending on higher resolution model simulations today, it may be prudent to include patchy fog across East Texas. During the afternoon hours, a slight westerly component to the southerly breezes may be sufficient to nudge temperatures into the mid 70s near/west of the U.S. HWY 281 corridor. Elsewhere, full insolation coupled with modest southerly flow will equate to daytime highs in the low to mid 60s. While southerly breezes will diminish in magnitude through most of the night Wednesday into early Thursday, speeds may increase around daybreak and upset what would otherwise be another ideal radiational cooling night. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the 40s for most areas. Winds will increase through the day on Thursday as will mid/upper level cloud cover across the Red River in advance of our next upper system currently churning just offshore California. Some lower level clouds may stream in across East Texas as well. While southerly winds typically draw a maritime airmass northward into our region, moisture advection will only yield dew points in the 40s. With freeze cured fuels in abundance and winds increasing into the 15 to 20 mph range, there will be a potential for increased fire spread. Outdoor burning will need to be monitored as dormant winter vegetation is cured and available. Rain chances increase late Thursday into early Friday and the latest forecast package has trimmed PoPs just a tad below the the latest blended guidance. As mentioned above, moisture advection looks meager and forecast soundings indicate a pronounced layer of dry air below mid/upper level saturation implying most of what falls may be in the form of virga. PoPs have been capped at around 45-50% (though this may be generous), with the best opportunity for rain being across extreme Northeast Texas. Locations west of I-35 and south of I-20 will likely miss out on this potential for wetting rains and the fire weather threat may be heightened post-FROPA on Friday...more on this shortly. Forecast soundings do indicate lapse rates in excess of 7 C/km and as a result, the mention of thunder has been retained in the grids late Thursday into Friday where high-based thunderstorms may develop. As rain chances shift east of the area, a front will slice southward through our region during the daylight hours on Friday. While cold air advection will take place for most areas resulting in highs in the 60s, locations west of I-45 and south of I-20 will likely be the recipient of compressional warming and thus daytime highs in the mid 70s. Northwest winds of near 25 mph will once again enhance the fire weather threat and given the abundance of 1 and 10 hour fuels, we could see an increase in fire activity. Moreover, deterministic NBM dew point temperatures appear a tad inflated for a Pacific frontal passage and I`ve hedged toward the NBM 10th percentile/CONSMOS values for the Td grids on Friday. For now, we`ll monitor conditions, but it`s possible that Grassland Fire Danger statements will be needed at least on Friday. Saturday will feature cooler conditions area-wide with highs in the mid 60s...about 5-7 degrees below normal. Fortunately, it appears that winds will abate some and we`ll warm quickly back up into the 70s on Sunday. All in all, the weekend is shaping up to be quite pleasant for any socially distanced outdoor activities thanks to shortwave ridging overhead keeping rain chances near zero. Next week promises much of the same temperature wise with balmy overnight lows and mild daytime highs. I have trended temperatures above NBM guidance and closer to the model consensus which typically performs better during breezy/more humid overnight conditions. As longwave troughing develops to the west, the surface pressure gradient will tighten. The end result will be increased south winds. Moisture advection may be more promising with next week`s southerly flow regime and that could promote a greater coverage of wetting rains (or at least the potential). While unlikely to be a widespread rain event, this may serve to at least keep more significant fire weather potential in check. Bain && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Showers have ended across all terminals and skies have cleared over much of the forecast area. VFR is expected through the remainder of the TAF period with northerly winds near 5 to 7 knots turning out of the south by late this afternoon. We`re monitoring the potential for fog late tonight/early Wednesday morning. However, confidence is still too low to include any mention in the TAF for now. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 38 68 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 59 35 66 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 56 33 62 40 68 / 10 0 0 0 0 Denton 59 36 68 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 58 35 66 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 59 38 68 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 57 34 64 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 57 36 65 44 72 / 5 0 0 0 0 Temple 59 35 67 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 60 34 71 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 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