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873
FXUS64 KFWD 280021
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
721 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/NEW/
/This Evening through Monday Morning/

Today has been fairly quiet across North and Central Texas as the
cap has held through the afternoon. However, this quiet will not
persist. Currently, KFWS radar shows warm advection showers
streaming northward near and west of I-35. These will continue to
occur as we go into the latter portions of the evening, but the
bulk of activity should remain to our northwest for now as latest
ACARS soundings still show a small cap in place across North
Texas.

Later this evening the stout upper low will continue to swing
through the Southern Plains towards the Midwest, overspreading
increased forcing for ascent across North and Central Texas. In
response, the clusters and discrete supercells just to our
northwest and developing convection along the dryline will
quickly grow upscale into a hefty line of storms. These storms
will progressively move through the region tonight and overnight,
posing a threat for large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts,
and QLCS tornadoes along the leading edge of the line. The best
location to experience severe weather will be in our northwestern
counties this evening, but severe storms will be possible anywhere.
As this will be a nocturnal event, make sure to have your plan in
place and have multiple ways to receive warnings and alerts
BEFORE you go to bed tonight. The line(s) of storms will continue
to move through the region overnight, gradually weakening as it
moves into a less unstable airmass east of I-35 early tomorrow
morning. However, do not let this fool you: strong to severe
storms will still be possible along the line during this time.

Current CAMs show re-development near and east of I-35 over Sunday
afternoon as a shortwave swings around the base of the departing
upper low. This will pose another chance for severe weather as the
environment still holds steep lapse rates, sufficient deep layer
shear, and MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg. Hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes will all be possible east of I-35 through the afternoon
and early evening. This round of activity will be more scattered in
nature, with discrete cells and clusters as the expected storm mode.
If you are outside tomorrow afternoon, remain vigilant and weather
aware.

Through Sunday afternoon, expect average total rainfall amounts of 1-
2.5" with isolated amounts up to 4". These amounts, coupled with
multiple rounds of storms expected through tomorrow, will exacerbate
the flood threat. This will be especially true in flood prone areas
and in places that have already received heavy rainfall with our
earlier week rain. The Flood Watch remains in effect for a
majority of the region through Sunday afternoon, but may need to
be extended into the evening hours depending on storm coverage and
rainfall.

Sunday`s activity should linger through the evening and night, but
will ultimately come to an end by Monday morning. Morning lows to
kick off the workweek will be slightly cooler, bottoming out in
the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Prater
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&&

.LONG TERM... 
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/Issued 351 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/
/Monday Onward/

A lull in the active weather will occur on Monday as the
multitude of upper level systems responsible for this weekend`s
thunderstorms shift to the east, and a weak ridge develops
overhead. Storm chances will return on Tuesday, however, as a
shortwave rounds the northern flank of the ridge. This will help
ignite thunderstorms along the dryline, which will be positioned
across the Big Country by Tuesday afternoon. These storms should
remain confined to the western half of the region, keeping the
severe weather potential largely west of the I-35 corridor. A
secondary batch of convection may also occur across the southeast
zones where an active seabreeze may infiltrate Tuesday afternoon.
The southeast storms will likely remain sub-severe, though a few
may produce gusty winds and heavy rain.

By Wednesday, a stronger shortwave will be dropping southeast
through the Rockies, weakening the ridge and generating another
round of dryline convection across the Big Country mid to late
afternoon. A warm and unstable environment along with 35+ knots
of effective shear will support more severe thunderstorm potential
as convection spreads east through the region Wednesday evening.
Storms will dissipate Wednesday night as instability wanes and a
capping inversion strengthens at the 850-700mb level.

A cold front will then approach on Thursday as the shortwave
trough traverses the Plains, providing another focus for showers
and storms along with the dryline Thursday afternoon and evening.
Widespread convection will be the result Thursday afternoon
through Thursday night, with activity pushing south of the region
along with the front on Friday.

A short reprieve in rain chances will occur Friday into Friday
evening before a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet
generates another round of precipitation Friday night into next
Saturday. All of the forecast area should be in the cool sector
following the frontal passage, keeping any thunderstorms elevated
in nature and resulting from isentropic ascent. This should limit
the severe potential, but a strong storm or two would be capable
of producing hail. After a seasonably cool and damp (next)
weekend, a strengthening ridge aloft should lead to a warm-up and
a rain-free start to the following week.

30
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&&

.AVIATION... 
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/NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Showers have begun popping up across D10 this evening and will
continue through sunset. Expect another surge of MVFR cigs to
overspread the airports late this evening ahead of the main round
of thunderstorms. A line of storms is expected to move through the
TAF sites tonight, directly impacting D10 between 09-13Z and ACT
between 12-14Z. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all
possible as the line moves through. Once the line exits around
14Z(D10)-16Z(ACT), the airports should stay dry through the rest
of the period, becoming VFR by tomorrow afternoon with more modest
southwesterly winds. There is potential for re-development of
storms near ACT tomorrow afternoon, but guidance generally keeps
better chances further east.

Prater
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  80  64  86  68 / 100  70   5   5   5
Waco                67  78  65  85  67 /  70  90  20   5  10
Paris               67  76  62  82  63 /  40  90  40   5   5
Denton              63  80  60  85  66 / 100  50   5   5   5
McKinney            66  78  62  83  66 /  90  90  10   5   5
Dallas              66  81  64  86  67 / 100  80  10   5   5
Terrell             68  78  63  83  65 /  60  90  30   5   5
Corsicana           70  80  66  85  68 /  30  80  40  10  10
Temple              67  79  65  85  68 /  70  70  20  10  10
Mineral Wells       62  83  58  86  65 /  90  20   0   5   5
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
117>123-131>135-144>146-159.

Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
TXZ147-148-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$