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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KFWD 250714
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
214 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... 
-- Changed Discussion --
/NEW/
/End Of The Week/

The Southern Plains upper ridge remains entrenched across the
forecast area through this evening, thus providing continued
subsidence and maintaining the elevated mixed layer based at lower
levels. Another surge of morning low clouds will overtake most,
if not all the entire region with extensive moisture above 500mb
and high clouds this afternoon thanks to an impulse traversing the
ridge. This will keep any legitimate convection and rainfall
deflected to the north and northeast of the area. Spotty morning
sprinkles that may dot your windshield are certainly possible
considering the moisture depth below the slow-rising elevated
mixed layer (capping inversion. The multiple layers of
moisture/clouds will also inhibit the better late April insolation
and keep highs contained in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

A tight pressure gradient and eventual mixing later this morning
will result in breezy conditions as southerly winds increase to
between 15 and 20 mph with gusts in excess of 30 mph. Very gusty
southerly winds will continue into the overnight hours as surface
temperatures only fall to between 65 and 70 degrees and help to
keep the surface somewhat coupled with the LLJ.

A substantial shortwave disturbance is forecast to lift across
the Central/Southern High Plans and western Oklahoma/Northwest
Texas during the pre-dawn hours Friday. This will draw a Pacific
cold front containing mP/mT airmass eastward into our Big Country
counties on Friday. The right entrance region of a N to
S-oriented, 90-110 kt upper jet, with 70 kts lower at 500mb will
add increasing ageostrophic ascent to the already ongoing lift
from the mid level impulse and ongoing warm advection with very
moist and conditionally unstable lower levels available within the
broad warm sector. All these factors will easily overcome any
residual elevated/weak cap with strong to severe storms rapidly
initializing along the approaching cold front across Northwest
Texas into the South Plains overnight. Very steep mid level lapse
rates > 8 deg C/km and MLCAPE of 2000 J/KG+ will juxtapose with
with westerly 40-50 kt effective shear for all modes of severe
weather, including tornadoes during the discrete stages mostly
west/northwest of the forecast area. Afterward, large hail and
damaging winds are the primary impacts as the convective system
becomes more linear. The eventual evolution linear mode along the
front will definitely wake a few folks up Friday morning. Despite
the more linear storm mode, a few supercells embedded within the
line will pose localized tornado threat.

The Pacific cold front stalls along or just west of the Hwy 281
corridor later Friday morning, as it loses upper support with the
initial and strong shortwave. This will result in a gradual
weakening trends and lowering severe threat with any convection
that maintains eastward past I-35 and into the midday and early
afternoon hours. Hail, gusty outflow winds, and locally heavy
rainfall and minor flooding will still be problematic into early
Friday afternoon. Earlier clearing will bring steamy and humid
conditions Friday afternoon across the areas along and west of
US-281 with highs 85 to 90 degrees, while the clouds, rain, and
storm linger longer further east with much of Central and East
Texas only warming into the mid-upper 70s with continued gusty
southerly winds.

05/Marty
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&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/
/Friday Through Early Next Week/

There will be several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms
over the weekend. The potential for severe thunderstorms will
exist, but their coverage and timing will depend on a variety of
factors. This will mainly involve the placement of a stalled
frontal boundary and a surface dry line. That being said, large
hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats along with
frequent lightning. There is a low chance for an isolated tornado
or two as well. It is important to note that regardless of the
areal placement of these storms, coverage will vary through the
weekend and several locations may not see any storms at all.

A shortwave trough will push through the region early Friday
morning, with rapid height falls across North and Central Texas.
An approaching cold front will interact with an open warm sector
that will be in place across our region, leading to the first
round of showers and thunderstorms. These will be propagating
within a storm environment that will be favorable for severe
weather on Friday morning through the afternoon and evening hours.
Storms will exit to the east on Friday night before our next
round of thunderstorms moves in through Saturday and Sunday as
another shortwave trough pushes across the Central Plains. Surface
features such as the dry line and a stalling frontal boundary
will largely dictate where storms develop through the rest of the
weekend, and confidence in their placement as of right now remains
quite low. Because of this, a broad mention of showers and
thunderstorms is necessary for the public forecast until details
can be further refined as higher resolution guidance comes into
range for the weekend. On top of this, a windy weekend will be in
store with ambient winds potentially gusting upwards of 45 mph as
a tight pressure gradient sets up ahead of our weekend system. A
Wind Advisory will likely be necessary on Saturday in future
forecast packages as we refine these details further.

While most of the ingredients for severe weather will be in
place, the ultimate question will be regarding the overall quality
of lift with the placement of both shortwave troughs and the
location of our surface features. The strength of our residual
EML/capping inversion will also be in play for our active weather
over the weekend. With all of this being said, please continue to
stay up-to-date with the latest forecast as confidence increases
over the next couple of days.

As we move into early next week, a weak ridge will begin to set
up once again. This will lead to a short-lived period of dry
weather before chances for showers and thunderstorms return to
North and Central Texas as our next system pushes into the region.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... 
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/NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Challenges remain similar to Wednesday. Gauging both speed and
gusts with southerly winds which should be increasing after 12z
this morning. No doubt we`ll get MVFR across the D10 and DFW
airports, it`s the timing that still differs amongst high-res
models. The GLAMP/GFS remains the most aggressive on bringing MVFR
into the D10 airports by 10z, while the NAM is 12z, and the
RAP/HRRR delay arrival until close to mid morning.

I will take the "middle road" timing here and lean toward the NAM
with high MVFR cigs arriving across the DFW Metro at 12z, with a
fall into low MVFR by mid morning. Waco Regional Airport should
see an arrival 1-2 hours earlier, along with a window of IFR cigs
occurring through late morning. Warmer surface temperatures here
across DFW should keep cigs out of IFR, though AFW/FTW/GKY
will be on the fence for a 1-2 hour TEMPO group around mid morning.

Cigs rise into high MVFR (=> 2 kft) during the early afternoon
hours, then into low VFR for a few hours either side of 00z
Friday. As the 925mb LLJ cranks up after 03z Friday, cigs will
likely thicken and fall into low MVFR just before midnight. S winds
will continue AoB 10 kts through sunrise before increasing to between
15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts mid-late morning and through this
coming evening.

05/Marty
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  81  69  83  68 /  60  80  10  50  70
Waco                69  79  70  83  69 /  20  70  10  30  50
Paris               68  75  68  82  69 /  30  90  30  50  60
Denton              68  82  68  81  66 /  60  70  10  50  70
McKinney            68  80  69  82  68 /  50  80  20  50  60
Dallas              70  81  70  84  69 /  50  80  20  40  60
Terrell             69  78  69  83  68 /  30  90  20  30  50
Corsicana           70  79  71  85  70 /  20  70  20  20  40
Temple              69  78  70  84  69 /  10  60  10  20  40
Mineral Wells       67  85  67  81  64 /  80  50   5  50  70
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$