Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 312028
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
328 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1225 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020/
/Through Monday/

An upper low continues to slowly drift northward out of northern
Mexico, which is resulting in scattered showers and storms across
South and Southeast Texas today. As moisture continue to arrive
over the next several hours, a few showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm may develop across our far southern/southwestern
zones. Due to meager instability and shear, no severe weather is
expected, and an occasional lightning strike would be the only
hazard. A few rain showers may exist overnight across our southern
zones, but the potential for measurable rainfall is on the low
side.

Precipitation should expand farther north on Monday as more
plentiful moisture accompanies the low pressure circulation
northward. Have maintained 30-50% PoPs across the southwestern
2/3rds of the forecast area where broad weak ascent will exist
through much of the day. Convective activity will be aided by
diurnal heating, thus peak coverage should occur during the mid to
late afternoon hours with diminishment towards sunset. Any
activity would once again consist of garden-variety summertime
showers with an isolated storm or two. Deeper convection would be
most likely in Central Texas within the better instability. Given
PW values approaching 1.5-2 inches, some heavy rainfall will be
possible. With more abundant cloud cover present, Monday`s highs
should be a couple degrees cooler than the previous few days.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Through the Upcoming Weekend/

The core of an upper low will be near our western frontier at peak
heating Tuesday afternoon. Its proximity and the favorable
southerly fetch on its eastern flank should assure low rain
chances across all of North and Central Texas. However, with no
surface reflection or discernible boundaries to focus initiation,
the resulting convective elements may be less numerous than on
Monday afternoon. Moist adiabatic profiles and generally weak
shear should preclude strong/severe storms, but some of the
updrafts will contain lightning. Deep tropical moisture will
result in considerable precipitation efficiency, but the paucity
of cells and adequate flow should limit flooding concerns. The
activity will be diurnally driven and wholly within the afternoon
time frame. By Wednesday afternoon, the upper disturbance will be
to our east, and any showers/storms should be confined to
East/Northeast Texas.

Ridging will build back into the region on Thursday, dominating
North and Central Texas into the upcoming weekend. Daytime
temperatures will climb above normal, with some areas reaching the
mid to upper 90s late in the week. With seasonal humidity, heat
index values may exceed 100, making the first weekend of June feel
very much like summer. The only caveat will be troughing over the
Gulf of Mexico, which this time of year can be problematic. The
extended portion of the forecast will be free of any mention of
precipitation, but however the disturbed weather in the Gulf
evolves, there will likely be an increase in showers/storms on the
Texas coast which could invade or erode the ridge to our
southeast.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1225 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020/
/18z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through Monday morning with east winds around 10
kts or less. Gradually increasing moisture is leading to more
widespread cumulus around 5 kft today, while cirrus continues to
thicken as it arrives from South Texas. By Monday morning,
increasing low-level moisture could result in brief MVFR cigs
near Waco, but this potential is too low to include in the current
TAFs. As additional moisture streams into the area throughout the
day, a northward expansion of rain showers should occur, with
rain becoming possible at Waco at or just after the end of the
current TAF period. VFR cigs should exist at most airports through
the day.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  68  86  70  88 /   0   0  10   5  20
Waco                88  68  85  69  88 /   5   5  40  10  20
Paris               84  64  85  66  86 /   0   0   5   5  20
Denton              87  65  87  69  88 /   0   0  10   5  20
McKinney            87  64  87  68  88 /   0   0  10   5  20
Dallas              88  68  87  70  89 /   0   0  10   5  20
Terrell             87  65  87  68  88 /   0   0  10   5  20
Corsicana           87  68  86  69  87 /   0   0  20  10  20
Temple              87  68  85  68  86 /  10  10  40  10  20
Mineral Wells       87  64  85  66  87 /   0   0  20   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/26


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