Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 181023
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
523 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Another quiet Fall morning is underway across the region with 5
AM temperatures in the 40s and lower 50s.

The current forecast is in good shape and no changes are needed
at this time.


79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday/

Another quiet night is underway across North and Central Texas
with scattered high clouds and a light south to southeast wind.
Not much change in the weather is expected Monday other than a
slight increase in southerly winds in response to a developing low
pressure system across the western states.

Lows tonight will drop down into the 40s in most locations except
for a few urban areas that will stay in the lower 50s. Highs
Monday should be a couple of degrees warmer than Sunday, but
still pleasant with readings in the 70s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 324 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/
/Tuesday and Beyond/

An upper low centered over the Great Basin at the beginning of
the period will progress eastward into the Plains by Wednesday
before continuing on to the Midwest on Thursday. An attendant
surface cyclone will accompany the low as it emerges in the
Plains. A cold front extending southwest from the surface low will
ease through North Texas late Wednesday and Thursday. Convergence
along the front may kick off isolated showers, but weak
instability and a lack of significant forcing should preclude
thunder. A weak push behind the front will likely cause it to
stall somewhere over Central Texas Wednesday night or Thursday.

The boundary will then retreat north as a warm front Thursday
night and Friday as a shortwave trough enters the West Coast
region. An isolated shower or two may accompany the warm front as
it passes through the Red River area, but most precip will be
elevated above the frontal layer and located north of the region.
This will likely also be the case then the shortwave passes
through the Southern Plains on Sunday, but this forecast package
will indicate slight chance POPs over the far northeast zones
where a few more showers may occur. Otherwise, seasonably cool
conditions early on will become seasonably warm by midweek, and
continue as such through the end of the forecast period.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

No aviation weather concerns through tonight with only scattered
high clouds. Low level moisture will slowly return overnight but
low clouds are not expected at any of the TAF sites Tuesday
morning.

A light south to southeast wind early this morning will gradually
increase between 8 and 12 knots and remain in that range through
the afternoon. Wind speeds should fall below 10 knots after
sunset.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  57  80  63  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  54  80  61  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               73  50  77  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              76  53  80  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            75  53  79  61  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              76  58  80  65  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             76  53  79  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           76  54  80  61  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              75  54  80  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  54  79  59  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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