


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
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Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --476 FXUS65 KGGW 122051 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 251 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --KEY MESSAGES: 1) Hot and dry conditions continue today with high fire danger through this evening for portions of NE Montana. 2) Cooler temperatures and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected by early next week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Smoke has finally shifted east while hot and dry conditions take hold across NE Montana. Temperatures this afternoon will remain in the 80s and low 90s while winds turn north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusts to 25 mph. Meanwhile, humidity readings will bottom near 10 to 15 percent. Where these conditions are expected to be more persistent, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8pm. This is for Fire Weather Zone 134. Outside this region, dry and breezy conditions are still expected, but true Red Flag criteria is forecast to be more isolated and not as persistent. That said it is certainly a close call and elevated fire weather concerns still exist for the entire region regardless of exact wind and humidity outcomes. For Sunday, hot and dry conditions look to continue but lighter winds should mean elevated but not critical fire weather conditions. The next shortwave will flatten the ridge on Monday with a cold front across the region. This will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region with the highest QPF expected Monday night into Tuesday. Portions of NE Montana could see precipitation amounts range between 0.25" and 0.50" during this period next week along with markedly cooler temperatures. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is high that hot and dry conditions will persist into Sunday before cool and wet weather take hold early to middle portions of next week. While NBM was largely followed, a blend with NBM 90 was used for near term winds to best match current and expected trends.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --LAST UPDATED: 2030Z on July 12, 2025 FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR. DISCUSSION: VFR conditions are expected amid north and northwest winds ranging 10 to 15 kts and occasional gusts to 25 kts. Winds will reduce to 10 to 15 kts in the evening and become light and variable after 06z.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .FIRE WEATHER...-- Changed Discussion --Hot and dry weather conditions will continue this evening. Look for high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and relative humidity as low as 10 to 15 percent. Meanwhile, winds will become north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. This will mean critical fire weather conditions for Fire Weather Zone 134 where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8pm. Outside of this area, true critical fire weather conditions are expected to be more isolated and not as persistent. That said it remains a very close call and elevated fire weather concerns are certainly forecast area wide through this evening with low afternoon humidity and breezy conditions at times. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Sunday though wind speeds may not be as strong.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ weather.gov/glasgow