Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000 FXUS63 KGID 182331 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 631 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Turning out to be a pretty nice way to end the weekend across the area, with plenty of sun and temps climbing well into the 50s to lower 60s. Aloft, upper air and satellite data showing NNWrly flow in place across the region...with the CWA sitting between one disturbance making its way across MO and the next sliding SSE out of central Canada. Outside of a bit of fair weather/peak heating CU scattered around, skies have been clear. At the sfc, high pressure sits over the Srn Plains, while a cold front approaches from the Dakotas. Winds across the CWA have been NWrly through the day, and with plenty of sun allowing for a bit of mixing, obs show some occasional gusts around 15-20 MPH...but overall, sustained speeds have been around 10-15 MPH. Tonight through Monday night... Another chance for some accumulating snow still in the forecast, mainly affecting the Monday/Monday night time frame. Models remain in pretty good agreement showing the continued southward push of the shortwave trough out of Canada, with the main impact expected during the evening/overnight hours tonight being with the passage of the accompanying sfc cold front. There are some slight differences between models even now with the timing of the front, with most models (including hi-res) showing it around the I- 80/HWY 6 corridors around 06Z tonight and right along the southern CWA boundary by 12Z Mon. Little, if any, precipitation is currently expected prior to 12Z Mon. The exception would be across the far northern fringe of the CWA, where the increased mid-level forcing will be approaching. Currently only have PoPs in the 09-12Z period. During the daytime hour period on Monday (12Z-00Z), there are still some differences between models with just how much activity will continue across the CWA. Depending on the model, the initial push of increased mid-level forcing wanes/shifts east, potentially leaving little activity between it an the second disturbance that is sinking south through the High Plains. Have PoPs ranging from 20-50% across primarily our Neb. counties, where what lingering mid-level forcing there is will line up. Main change to the forecast for the daytime hours was to trend high temperatures down area-wide. With the cold front moving in tonight, thinking is that for most locations the calendar-day high may occur right around midnight, and with colder air advection, increased clouds, and precip chances, temps will struggle to do much during the day. Forecast temps during the day tomorrow range from the mid 30s in the WNW to mid 40s in the SE. The best chances for precipitation are expected between 00Z-12Z tomorrow night-Tues AM, as that next shortwave disturbance moves out onto the Central Plains. The most recent run of models have continued the southward trend to the better QPF/snow, which would give the southern half of our CWA the best chances. As far as precip types go, with colder air advecting in, snow remains a concern, especially during the evening/overnight/morning hours. During the daytime hours, sfc temps are more marginal and less favorable for any snow accumulations. Current forecast amounts range from around 0.5"/less north of a Kearney/Geneva line, increasing to right around 2" at the NE/KS state line, then around 3" in Osborne/Mitchell Counties in KS. Following collab with neighboring KS WFOs, decided to issue a Winter Wx for KS counties with those higher snow amounts...running from Monday evening through early Tuesday AM. Tuesday and Wednesday... The forecast for this period is currently dry, with models showing continued northwesterly flow aloft in the wake of this latest system. Confidence in Tuesday being totally dry is not the highest. Models are in pretty good with the better lift with this system moving east of the CWA Tuesday morning, but there is some concern there could be a few lingering showers, esp during the afternoon hours. Confidence is a little higher in Wednesday being dry. Not looking at much improvement in high temperatures, with both days well below normal...forecast has mid 40s for Tues, upper 40s-low 50s for Wed. Thursday and on... Additional preciptiation chances return to the forecast for Thursday and Friday, as models showing the potential for a couple quick moving shortwave disturbances to pass through the region. Confidence in any one model solution is pretty low, so didn`t stray from the generally 20-30% chances from the NBM. Dry conditions return for Saturday. Expecting gradual warming trend into the start of the weekend, with highs int the 60s for Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Expecting a cold frontal passage later tonight which according to the more recent hi-res model runs looks to develop some spotty showery activity right along the front which could move south and then die off right around KGRI, hence the VCSH at 03Z. Confidence isn`t the highest right now regarding this though mainly because it didn`t show up in earlier model runs and has only really existed in the afternoon runs. Though there is plenty of consistency with this little band forming to the north around 03Z in the HRRR, the RAP, and the NAMNEST. To support this there is also a decent cu field to our north currently. However even if there is some shower development it should be brief, and cigs don`t look to really tank until a little before 12Z. The main focus for precip chances and MVFR (and potentially IFR) conditions is tomorrow during the daytime, as left over forcing ahead of another sagging wave looks to drive some light yet wide spread precip across the area. With the much cooler temps in place a good bit of this could be a rain/snow mix. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Shawkey

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