Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000 FXUS63 KGID 021719 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 1119 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Monday) Issued at 402 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Wow what a week ahead...March is definitely not coming in like a lion. This morning a few high clouds are moving southward across the area, winds are generally light and temperatures are in the upper 20s and low 30s. As a disturbance exits eastward across the southeast US this morning, upper level flow will become zonal before a stronger ridge slides quickly overhead before a disturbance for mid/late week. The main concern in the short term is fire weather. Relative humidity values will be in the teens across north central Kansas and even bleeding some across the state line to the north. Zonal flow will induce a lee low to deepen today. Gradient southwesterly winds ahead of this trough could reach speeds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. There is some uncertainty in regards to how strong the winds will actually be. They could struggle to meet those speeds, but since we tend to under forecast wind speeds, decided to err towards the stronger side. The stronger speeds will be present further north into east-central Nebraska...but relative humidity values will be higher where the winds are highest. Decided to go ahead and upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the current areas. Things to watch. 1. Will the lowest RH values reach into the southern tier of NE counties and 2. Will the winds reach 20 mph with gusts over 25 mph. If those things occur, could see some expansion northward into Nebraska zones. For now, kept it where confidence is higher for lowest RH values. Otherwise, the forecast is quiet. Sunny skies, temperatures in the 60s for most through mid-week. Towards the end of the work week, a cut off low moves eastward from the California coast and at this time looks to mainly impact Kansas Thursday night into Friday morning. Expect rain with this system. Instability remains further south and we are warm enough through the column that snow is not a concern. For this forecast the primary location for rain looks to be southwest of a line from Lexington, NE to Hebron, NE. Ridging will follow for Saturday and possibly Sunday ahead of the next quick system. Ahead of this system it`ll be warm and breezy as a lee trough deepens. There are some timing differences with the GFS faster than the EC and other ensembles. If it is slower, Sunday will also be breezy and warm. Confidence is low on any precipitation potential, but if it occurs, it doesn`t look to amount to a whole lot. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday) Issued at 1116 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Quiet weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period, with very little/if any clouds expected. If any clouds were to move through the area, it looks to be late in the period and in the upper levels. Gusty SW are expected to continue this afternoon, diminishing and turning light/variable tonight into Wed. morning.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 402 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 A Red Flag Warning is in effect today for north central Kansas. A surface trough will move through the region during the day. Ahead of this trough, southwesterly winds could gust to 25-30 mph. Relative humidity values will be generally upper teens across the area. There is some uncertainty in how strong the winds will actually be, but generally we tend to under forecast winds, so decided to err on the side of slightly stronger sustained winds and gusts for this forecast. Despite these concerns, there is enough confidence along with cured fuels to issue a Red Flag Warning. Fires that develop could become out of control quickly due to the low RH values and gusty winds. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NE...NONE. KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019.
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&& $$ DISCUSSION...Billings Wright AVIATION...ADP FIRE WEATHER...Billings Wright

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