114
FXUS65 KGJT 120533
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1133 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
  evening before activity begins to favor the central areas
  tonight. Soaking rains are expected at lower elevations with a
  few inches of accumulating snow above 9500 feet. Small hail
  and gusty winds to 40 mph are possible with storms.

- Daily showers and thunderstorms, favoring the mountains along
  the Divide, are expected Sunday and continuing through the
  coming week. More widespread activity returns Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

- A gradual warming trend will bring near normal temperatures
  tomorrow, and above normal temperatures from Monday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 400 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

The circulation denoting the closed low currently lifting across
our forecast area today is evident on both radar and satellite
this afternoon with numerous showers and thunderstorms ongoing.
Activity was originally centered over the Four Corners region
this morning before the low began to shift, which led to areas
of sunshine to start the day farther north. Storms have finally
started to fill in across the northern and central zones in
response which some pretty strong cells over the higher terrain.
Storms have already been capable of producing up to a couple
inches of accumulation of small hail in addition to frequent
lightning and locally higher rates. Active weather will prevail
going into the evening hours before the low and associated vort
max shifts east of the Divide tonight. Its center will settle
near Pueblo, putting our central zones across western Colorado
in a favorable position to receive additional wraparound
moisture. High-res guidance continues to ping on a notable band
of showers in this region tonight which will bring another round
of snow to the mountains...generally on the magnitude of 2 to 4
inches with some locally higher amounts on favored slope. North-
east Utah and northwest Colorado on the other hand will be under
the influence of subsident, dry air tonight in the wake of the
closed low.

By Sunday morning skies across the northern tier of the
forecast area will be mostly clear with the aforementioned band
of showers farther south begins to slowly dissipate by mid
morning. The low will continue its progression east throughout
the day with northerly flow setting up aloft behind it. Plenty
of residual moisture and this unsettled flow will lead to
another round of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms
along the Continental Divide on Sunday. Elsewhere will see
mostly dry weather with temperatures beginning to rebound.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 400 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Weak ridging tries to build in at the start of the long term period
but a shortwave will undercut the ridge and allow some convection to
fire in the afternoon. As of now, the NBM is including all mountain
ranges in Colorado and the eastern Uintas though probabilities are
in the 30 to 40% range. QPF amounts range from .01 to .1 inch range
so not much precip to speak of.  A few showers may persist overnight
but we`re not done just yet. The next trough will be approaching
from the northwest and despite upper level support being rather
weak, enough support and instability will allow widespread showers
and thunderstorms across the CWA. As this occurs, an upper level low
will be spinning just off the SoCal coast. Models continue to
highlight the upper level trough getting in phase with this low.
This looks to occur by early Wednesday afternoon. The upper level
trough axis doesn`t move through our area until Thursday morning so
we`ll see unsettled weather continue through that timeframe. The
rest of Thursday will bring mostly sunny skies for the region though
some showers/storms remain possible over the San Juans. Some
discrepancies pop up between models for the weekend but the gist of
it being mostly dry looks to be the common theme.

As far as temps are concerned, highs will start out near normal if
not a few degrees above. The increase in clouds and precip will
cause temps to drop to near normal, or slightly below, midweek with
a warmup starting on Friday onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

An area of light to moderate rainfall is moving southeast
through the region at this hour. Reduced visibility and low
ceilings associated with this area have led to MVFR to IFR
conditions at KASE, with KEGE and KRIL remaining below ILS
breakpoints. This area will bring potential showers to KGJT,
KMTJ, KTEX, and KGUC over the next 6 hours before tapering off.
Skies will clear behind this area of showers, with ceilings
rising above ILS breakpoints. VFR conditions will prevail after
12z. Gusty afternoon winds up to 20 knots will be possible.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMS
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT