Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000 FXUS63 KGLD 041141 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 441 AM MST Thu Mar 4 2021 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Friday) Issued at 329 AM MST Thu Mar 4 2021 Latest upper air analysis is showing the closed low for our upcoming precipitation event moving across the Great Basin. Satellite imagery is already showing a large area of cloud cover expanding in coverage on the north side of the closed low. Latest surface observations under the cloud cover show some precipitation is occurring, however most of the cloud cover has yet to produce precipitation. Today the closed low will move onto the High Plains. As it does so rainfall will develop over the forecast area during the latter part of the morning. The area of rainfall should expand in coverage during the afternoon as a band of frontogenesis develops over the forecast area. Would be surprised if moderate rainfall occurs with this band of frontogenesis. Outside of this better defined corridor of rainfall the rain will be more scattered due to the lift being less uniform. Soundings in Southwest Kansas indicate a very dry mixed layer below the clouds. However, that dry layer moistens toward West Central Kansas. Tried to capture this trend with the rainfall chances increasing to the north. Highs today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday due to the cloud cover overhead as the closed low moves east. Southeast winds will be a bit breezy today. However there will be a weak inversion in place that will prevent the stronger winds from reaching the ground. This evening the corridor of frontogenesis will slide to the southeast. However there will be a rather well defined corridor of frontogenesis that will setup over the forecast area in place of the frontogenesis. Therefore foresee another round of well defined rainfall forming over the forecast area as a result. Current data is indicating that most of the rainfall will occur during the night. As the low slides to the southeast overnight the rain activity will follow it. Due to higher dew points in place lows for tonight will be warmer than last night. Friday morning there may be some lingering rain activity in the far southern part of the forecast area where there may be lingering isentropic lift. Any rain activity will be south of Greeley and Wichita counties before mid morning. Behind the exiting closed low the sky will clear from west to east. Winds will be light due to an 850mb ridge following in behind the closed low. A surface ridge will also move through, causing winds to turn to the south behind it. With a cooler air mass in place highs will be a few degrees cooler than today for all but the western part of the forecast area, which will actually be warmer. Friday night the light south winds will continue. Lows will be a few degrees cooler than last night given the clear sky. Regarding placement of rainfall amounts, the higher amounts will heavily depend on where the corridor of frontogenesis sets up this afternoon, and where the corridor of isentropic lift occurs this evening. The current NAM, GEFS, ECMWF ensemble suggest the higher rainfall amounts may be shifted to the southeast of current forecasted area of higher amounts. However the HREF, NBM, and WPC all agree for the most part with the QPF, which is what was used for the forecast. Considering all this, confidence is moderate with the latest rainfall amounts. This widespread rain event will be the equivalent of almost a single month`s precipitation in one event. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 229 AM MST Thu Mar 4 2021 The long term period continues to look dry with above average temperatures. Wednesday and beyond may shift to a cooler pattern and bring the next chance for precipitation. The weekend is looking dry and warm as ridging sets up aloft over the area along with a relatively dry air mass. This is why the forecast calls for dry conditions in spite of a shortwave moving through on Sunday along with lower surface pressure moving into the western and northern portions of the area. Henceforth, temperatures are currently forecasted to reach the mid 60`s and even the low 70`s both days. Monday and Tuesday look to remain under the ridging aloft though the pattern will likely begin to shift during the day Tuesday. Both days look to continue the trend of above average temperatures in the mid 60`s and 70`s and dry conditions. The shift on Tuesday will potentially allow for a pressure gradient to set up across the area with higher pressure southeast and lower pressure northwest. This would lead to an increase in winds which, coupled with low relative humidity in the teens, could lead to fire weather conditions. However, guidance has not been consistent with a solution for this time period. During the day Tuesday and into Wednesday, a broad trough aloft is forecasted to move into the Western CONUS and spread into our area. At the surface, the low pressure that was to our northwest would move east with a cold front draped across the south. This would lower temperatures Wednesday back to near average values for this time of year. There are still quite a few suggested solutions and ensemble anomalies of 500mb heights show that there is decent uncertainty with the location and extent of the trough. So will continue to monitor for the next few days to see how this next system evolves.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 439 AM MST Thu Mar 4 2021 VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main focus is the precipitation, which will mainly impact KGLD. The widespread rainfall will last through the afternoon and much of the night. Winds will be variable through the morning then become from the southeast this afternoon, then turn to the north this evening. MVFR ceilings move in during the evening.
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&& .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...JTL

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