588
FXUS63 KGRB 112014
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
314 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible through this
  evening across north-central and far northeast WI. Severe
  weather is not expected.

- A few showers and storms are possible across the north Sunday
  afternoon and evening. If the storms develop, a few may become
  strong or severe capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
  hail.

- Building heat and humidity early next week will bring a period
  of heat-related impacts, with heat index values forecast to rise
  into the mid 90s to up to 105F on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Precipitation Chances...A cu field developed over the area north and
west of the Fox Valley this afternoon, with a couple of showers
popping up at times. But with a lack in shear, the showers have been
struggling to sustain themselves enough to produce lightning. Given
these showers are diurnally driven, they will end soon after sunset
this evening. Dry conditions are then anticipated overnight through
much of Sunday. A few models are indicating showers and storms
developing along a Lake Superior lake breeze Sunday
afternoon/evening and driving south/southwest over northern WI. Not
exactly sold on this solution with little guidance supporting it.
However, if these storms develop, cannot rule out the potential for
a strong or severe storm with 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 0-6km
shear around 35 kts present. If one of these stronger storms
develop, damaging wind gusts and hail will be the main hazards.

Dry conditions are then expected for Monday through at least
Wednesday with an upper-level ridge prevailing over the area.
Wednesday into Thursday, the pattern transitions to a northwest
flow, leaving the forecast area in the line of fire for any
shortwaves riding the ridge. This brings the next chances for
showers and storms to the area from Thursday through the end of next
week.

Temperatures/Upcoming Heat...Above normal temperatures are expected
through this forecast period, peaking on Monday and Tuesday when
925mb temps climb to 27C to 32C over the area. However, this high
heat for Monday and Tuesday is slightly different than a typical
heatwave pattern. Drier air coming from the Dakotas/MN circulating
on the northern part of the upper to mid-level ridge will keep heat
indices near or slightly above the air temperature across north-
central WI due to dew points in the low to mid 60s. Meanwhile, the
better corn-aided evapotranspiration will be focused across central
and east-central WI where dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s are
forecast; however, the hotter air aloft will still be focused across
the north. Regardless, Monday and Tuesday will see the greatest risk
for heat-related illnesses with air temperatures in the 90s, with
some spots approaching 100. This will translate to heat indices in
the mid 90s to up to 105, but determining exactly where the highest
heat indices will occur is still uncertain; therefore, decided not
to issue any heat advisories or warnings at this time, but they will
be needed. As the ridge breaks down to the northwest flow midweek,
temperatures will not be as hot as Monday and Tuesday, but will
still remain above normal in the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. A FEW/SCT cu
field developed over central and north-central WI early this
afternoon with cloud bases of 3500-5000 ft AGL, while clear skies
prevailed elsewhere. Anticipate the cu field to stick around
through early this evening. A couple showers with a possible
isolated storm will pop up within the cu field, mainly across
north-central WI this afternoon. Included a PROB30 group for the
shower potential at RHI, where confidence is highest.

Otherwise, clear skies and light winds, mainly up to 5 kts are
expected through Sunday morning. Winds turn southwest Sunday
morning and increase to around 10 kts, with gusts to 15 kts across
the far north. A few isolated showers and storms are possible
again Sunday afternoon across the north, which may become strong
or severe.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Kruk