Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 190710

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
310 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019


Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

- Fair weather today and tonight

- Showers and storms possible Tuesday afternoon and night

- Cooler late in the week


.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

A high pressure ridge will build in and bring fair wx today
through tonight with seasonable temps for this time of year.
Patchy fog early this morning will dissipate quickly during the
mid morning hours. An isolated shower is possible over our far
southern fcst area this aftn. An overall guidance consensus
favors areas further south/sw of our area for pcpn later today.

Much of Tuesday should be dry but winds will become southwesterly
and advect a more humid airmass back into our fcst area. Scattered
rain showers and perhaps an isolated storm or two will develop
Tuesday afternoon as a fairly strong upper level disturbance moves
in from the west. The relatively best chc for pcpn will be over
our southern fcst area where relatively stronger instability is
fcst to develop.

A strong cold front will bring some showers and storms Tuesday
night. However the moderate to strong instability will stay
focused well to the south of our fcst area across IL/IN/OH and
that is where we believe the vast majority of convection will
develop. Severe wx is unlikely this far north and this notion is
in line with the day 2 convective outlook from SPC.

It will become breezy after fropa with wind gusts to around 25 kts
Wednesday afternoon. A cooler and drier airmass will advect in for
mid to late week with high temps Wed-Fri in the 70`s and low temps
in the 50`s (40`s over our northern fcst area). A high pressure
ridge will bring fair wx late in the week into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 1130 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

VFR conditions will continue for most of the overnight period but
will deteriorate to MVFR and perhaps IFR prior to daybreak mainly
at terminals southeast of KGRR due to development of patchy fog.
Any patchy fog will dissipate quickly by mid morning with VFR
conditions to follow for the rest of the day. Skies will clear
Monday evening with light and variable winds by then.


Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Fairly minimal wind speeds and wave heights are forecast through
Tuesday. Winds and wave heights will increase considerably
Wednesday after the passage of a strong cold front. A small craft
advisory will be needed Wednesday.




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