Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000 FXUS63 KGRR 042349 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 649 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 150 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 - High pressure/Quiet Weather through the Weekend - Low pressure approaches from the west with wet weather Mid-Week && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 150 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 - High pressure/Quiet Weather through the Weekend Dry northerly flow will persist into the weekend with sfc ridging holding on into early next week. Fairly good model agreement through this period depicting a blocky pattern with upper low across eastern Canada and NE CONUS, troughing moving into the Western CONUS and upper ridging in between. This amplified pattern begins to relax early next week, with a weak northern stream shortwave trough axis passing through on Monday night with any chance for precip expected to remain north of the forecast area. - Low pressure approaches from the west with wet weather Mid-Week The weather gets more active next week as the upper troughing across the western CONUS moves east and a sfc cyclone tracks through the Northern Plains. Still enough ensemble spread to have some doubts as to how much precip this brings as the low occludes well west of the Great Lakes. We can expect some warm advection rain moving in by Tuesday night or Wednesday then the occluded or cold front moves through on Thursday. Some of the 12Z model guidance shows this front as the focus for a heavy rain potential as it stalls just south of Lower Michigan. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 649 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 I am expecting widespread clear skies tonight with winds mostly from the north under 10 knots. An area of VFR cigs (4000 ft bases) is expected to drop south from upper Michigan early Friday morning and reach our TAF sites by mid morning. At this point I except the greater cloud coverage to inland of US-131. Winds will become gusty Friday afternoon, the wind gusts should be in the 15 to 25 knot range. && .MARINE... Issued at 150 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 North winds 10 to 20 knots will continue to make waves choppy around the Sable Points today and tonight, otherwise generally good conditions as high pressure builds in through the weekend. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ostuno DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...WDM MARINE...Ostuno

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