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000
FXUS62 KGSP 041322
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
922 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low will remain near the Mid-Atlantic coast through
Wednesday, maintaining a northerly breeze and scattered clouds over
our area. Temperatures will slowly warm through Friday, before a
dry cold front ushers in much cooler temperatures for this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 920 AM EDT Tuesday: Main change needed this update was the
increasing of dewpoints as OBS were running a few degrees higher
than what was in the forecast. Went with a 50/50 blend of NBM and
CONSShort dewpoints to bump them up a few degrees. Also increased
cloud cover across the mtn valleys for the next few hours as fog and
low stratus are still lingering this morning. Fog and low stratus
should continue to lift over the next hour or so.

Otherwise, a deep upper low meanders off the Mid-Atlantic coast
while weak ridging builds over the Ohio Valley and drives stout
northerly flow across the region.  The synoptic pattern will not
change all that much today as high pressure draped across the
upper Ohio Valley / eastern Great Lakes sustains northerly flow.
CAM`s depict a lobe of moisture around 600-700mb drifting around
the departing upper low along with a weak area of DPVA, which will
result in better cloud cover over the I-77 corridor this afternoon
and evening.  Winds will also turn somewhat more northwesterly
by this evening, slightly enhancing low-level CAA and allowing
Tuesday night`s lows to drop a degree or so lower than tonight`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 AM Tue: Remnant low associated with TC Ian finally
gets picked up by the midlatitude flow on Wednesday, and it is
carried out into the Atlantic by early Thursday. This will permit
a shortwave ridge to move overhead, and flip winds around to west
or southwest. Temps will remain a couple degrees below normal
Wednesday, but trend warmer for Thursday and Friday. A deep polar
trough however will sink into the Midwest behind the ridge and
quickly induce height falls across the South and East; seasonably
strong cold front looks to reach the CWA Friday, although temps
should still top out a category or so above normal. The column will
remain dry as the front arrives, and PoPs will remain near zero.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM Tue: Substantially cooler high pressure will expand
into the area beginning late Friday in the wake of a cold front, and
remain the dominant weather feature over the region through early
next week. The story will be the cool temperatures and possible
frost/freeze concerns during the period. The higher mountain
elevations will experience lows in the 30s Saturday morning;
Saturday maxes should be 10-12 degrees cooler than Friday across
the board--that is, two or three categories below normal--and
moderate only slowly from there. The center of the sfc high will
migrate across the greater GSP CWA Sunday and Monday, and those
mornings look to be the coldest. Still looking like a spotty freeze
is possible in the mountain zones either of those mornings. Temps
should easily support frost across all the mountains and probably
in the I-40 corridor, if not more of the Piedmont, but we don`t
yet have a lot of dewpoint guidance to make a confident assessment
of moisture. Winds do look a bit weaker and thus more supportive
Monday vs. Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A quiet TAF period ahead.  Mountain valley
fog is evident in obs across the Balsams and French Broad Valley.
LIFR restrictions ongoing at KAVL have been handled with a TEMPO
lasting thru 13z, and gradually improving restrictions thereafter.
The remainder of sites are VFR and should remain that way thru
today...as high pressure over the upper Ohio Valley continues to
induce Nly flow (with a slight W component compared to yesterday)
and FEW/SKC cloud cover into tonight.  Good mixing during the
afternoon hours will promote sporadic gusts, now mentionable at all
six TAF sites.  Gusts die down tonight and a blob of upper-level
moisture promotes some FEW/SCT cirrus along the I-77 corridor
tonight and into early Wednesday.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected through the period.  A dry cold
front passing the region on Friday will likely lead to elevated
wind gusts and perhaps isolated restrictions in the mountains,
before quiet conditions continue into the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...AP/MPR
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...MPR