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237
FXUS62 KGSP 122353
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
753 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect scattered thunderstorms and heavy downpours around the region
each day of the coming week. A few storms this weekend will pose
a risk of damaging wind gusts. The hottest days of the next week
look to be Sunday and Monday, with heat index rising over 100 each
of those days in most of the Piedmont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 745 PM EDT Saturday: Still monitoring convection
especially across the CLT Metro area where instability remains
highest this evening, as well as showery activity spreading across
the mountains. Storms should diminish in typical fashion and timing,
thereafter we will watch for low stratus and fog development mainly
over the mtns. Low temps tonight should be a few degrees above
normal.

For Sunday, the overall pattern doesn`t change much, so the forecast
should be essentially persistent, as a positively-tilted trof
axis hangs back over the Midwest to the Ozarks, supporting a weak
frontal boundary that remains well to our northwest. Meanwhile, a
mid/upper ridge over the Gulf will build a bit over our area. The
effect will be lower precipitable water and the reintroduction of
some mid-level dry air. Buoyancy/shear will be similar to today,
but storms should be less numerous, and what develops should have
a slightly better chance at producing strong downdrafts. The lower
PW should provide a downward trend to the flood threat. Consistent
with the slightly drier air mass and less precip coverage, temps
should climb about 3-5 degrees higher for afternoon highs.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1145 AM Saturday: The upper ridge axis is progging to linger
atop the region to start off the work week, and just like Sunday,
another hot afternoon is expected, with Piedmont maximums again in
the middle 90s with the potential for apparent temperatures in the
lower 100s.  We are still expecting a slight drying trend with
respect to PWAT values so the overall cvrg of diurnally fired deep
convection should be back to climatology, if not a little less,
especially in the Piedmont. Given the probability of a decent amount
of dry air above the developing moderate instability and weak
steering flow, individual storms will have the capability to produce
damaging wind gusts and locally excessive rainfall.  Even though
there looks to be little change in the magnitude and positioning of
upper ridging on Tuesday will be begin to back away from the very
hot conditions.  With what is looking like an increase in llvl
Atlantic fetch, the potential for numerous showers and
thunderstorms is back in the picture.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday: The general pattern atop the region thoughout
the latter half of next week is shaping up to be pretty typical for
mid-July.  This will feature a weak mid/upper level flow regime
thanks to lingering upper anti-cyclone, along with a broad south-
southwesterly llvl flow around Bermuda high pressure.  Daily
temperatures are expected to be within a category of climo with
daily, diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms becoming
numerous, especially in the afternoon and evenings.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: Still dealing with convective activity
especially near KCLT, but should wane as we get closer to sunset.
Expect another round mountain valley fog and potential low stratus
in the pre-dawn hours and have continued this trend at KAVL, and
introduced MVFR at KHKY as well. Otherwise VFR through the period
with PROB30 for TSRA Sunday afternoon for all but the Upstate TAFs,
where chances are too low at this time to include. Winds lgt/vrb
overnight but pick up around 5kt or for Sunday generally out of the
N to NNW.

Outlook: Typical summertime weather is expected into early next
week, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms mainly in the
afternoon/evening and fog and/or low stratus possible each morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...TDP