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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KGSP 091359
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
959 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure lingers across the Carolinas today. A
warm front will lift across the forecast area on Sunday before a
cold front tracks over the region on Monday. These frontal
boundaries will increase shower and thunderstorm chances late this
weekend into early next week. The cold front looks to stall just
south of the forecast area after Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 958 AM Friday: No major changes to the forecast this morning.
Temps, dewpoints, and winds are largely on track...and clear skies
continue across the board amid building high pressure.

After the short wave moves off to the east this morning, the upper
low over the Northeast will drift away to the east and heights will
rise over the Carolinas. Upstream ridging will allow a sfc high
to build in from the northwest today with continued unseasonably
dry air. Temps will continue to run below normal, generally on the
order of one category (i.e. three degrees or so), under a mostly
sunny sky. Tonight, the center of the high should build down over
the mtns, allowing for clear sky and mostly calm wind. Low temps
will be similar to this morning in spite of the good radiational
cooling conditions owing to the modification of the air mass.

Air Quality Alerts (Code Orange) will again be in effect for today,
but only for Mecklenburg, Union (NC), and Davie counties.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday: The upper-level low located over the
Northeast will slowly lift northeastward Saturday into Saturday
night, allowing upper flow to gradually turn quasi-zonal over the
Carolinas. At the sfc, dry high pressure will be located over the
Carolinas Saturday morning before gradually pushing southeastward
into the western Atlantic Saturday afternoon. The western periphery
of the sfc ridge will continue to extend into the Carolinas Saturday
night leading to continued dry conditions. Highs on Saturday will be
a near climo to a few degrees above climo. Lows Saturday night will
be a few degrees above climo.

Sunday morning an upper trough will track across the TN Valley
before pushing into the western Carolinas and northeast GA Sunday
afternoon and evening. Shortwaves embedded within the upper flow
will track overhead the CWA Sunday afternoon into late Sunday night.
At the sfc, a warm front associated with a low pressure system
tracking eastward across the Midwest will lift northward across the
Carolinas throughout the day Sunday. We should see cloud cover ramp
up Sunday morning and early afternoon ahead of the precip. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase from SW to NE Sunday morning
into Sunday evening. 00Z global model guidance is not in good
agreement regarding the timing of showers and thunderstorms. The GFS
and ECMWF are the faster solutions (morning and afternoon start
time) while the NAM and Canadian are the slower solutions (afternoon
and evening start time). Have higher PoPs (categorical to likely)
across the western half of the CWA with lower PoPs (likely to
chance) across the eastern zones Sunday into Sunday night. With
PWATs ranging from 1.7 to 1.9 inches east of the mtns, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible. However, dry antecedent conditions should
help prevent any widespread flooding issues. Cloud cover and precip
should keep highs near climo to a few degrees below climo. Lows
Sunday night will be 3-6 degrees above climo thanks to cloud cover
and precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday: A cold front associated with the low
pressure system tracking across the eastern Great Lakes region will
be push out of eastern TN into the western Carolinas early Monday
morning. The FROPA will continue to push east across the western
Carolinas throughout the day Monday. This will act to keep shower
and thunderstorm chances around to start the workweek. Have likely
to categorical PoPs across the entire CWA on Monday, with the
highest PoPs across NC and the SC/GA mtns. With PWAT values lower
compared to Sunday, (1.5 to 1.7 inches east of the mtns), the
locally heavy rainfall threat should be low. 0-6 km shear values
will be higher compared to Sunday, with 00Z guidance showing values
from 25 to 35 kts along and ahead of the FROPA. So, we could see the
potential for more organized convection with the cold front. Should
see shower and thunderstorms exit the CWA from west to east Monday
evening into Monday night as the FROPA pushes south and east of the
CWA. The front looks to remain well to our south and east on Tuesday
leading to drier conditions. However, the front looks to reactivate
and lift northward mid to late week. This would act to keep shower
and thunderstorm chances around for the fcst area. With models not
in good agreement regarding the position and movement of the FROPA,
capped PoPs to chance starting on Wednesday and through the rest of
the long term. Temps should generally be near climo to a a few
degrees below climo through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals through the period. A
mid-level cloud trapped underneath an inversion will slowly mix out
through the middle part of the morning as a short wave aloft moves
past. Wind should stay light mainly from the N thru mid-morning. A
dry air mass remains in place today, so not much in the way of
clouds are expected, and certainly not any precip. Wind will stay
light N to NNE. The center of high pressure should move down over
the mtns this evening, so expect wind to go light/variable or calm
with sunset, along with clear sky.

Outlook: Dry high pressure remains in place Saturday. A cold
front brings a return of convection and possible restrictions
Sunday and Monday.  Tuesday more uncertain but convective chances
could continue.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...MPR/PM
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PM