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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KGSP 231800
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
200 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Southeast Coast will give way to a weak cold
front moving down from the north.  The North Carolina mountains
mainly near the Tennessee border will see rain showers late tonight
and Wednesday.  The weak front will scarcely affect temperatures
through mid week and then the front may come back northward as a
warm front on Friday. After that, expect a warmup through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 144 PM EDT Tuesday: Early afternoon water vapor imagery
depicts a shortwave trough sliding across the Great Lakes region.
Guidance is in good agreement that the trough will swing across the
Ohio Valley tonight and into the central Appalachians Wednesday
morning. An attendant weak frontal boundary is also progged to push
across the area during the afternoon hours Wednesday. Ahead of this
feature, surface high pressure centered off the southeast coast will
continue to keep quiet conditions in place through tonight. The
boundary layer, however, will stay mixed overnight as the surface
pressure gradient increases. This will allow for a rebound in
overnight low temperatures with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s,
which would be 10-15 degrees warmer compared to this morning. Cloud
cover increases during the early morning hours Wednesday with a band
of showers encroaching on the mountains from the west ahead of the
approaching frontal boundary. Showers will be likely across the
mountains, especially along the Tennessee border, during the
morning. Coverage farther east remains more uncertain as the better
DPVA and forcing will be displaced north of the area. With a lack of
forcing and a weak front, only isolated to scattered showers are
anticipated east of the mountains through the afternoon. High
temperatures will continue to rebound ahead of the front owing to
influences from compressional warming with highs in the upper 60s to
upper 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 115 PM Tuesday: Mid level ridging and surface high pressure
will be in place across the area through the short range period
leading to typical spring conditions. A few showers will be possible
on Friday especially in the mountains as a system lifts northward
through the Plains states, but otherwise conditions should remain
dry. Amounts with this system will be very light.

Highs will be near normal on Thursday and then a little below normal
on Friday with more cloud cover.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 125 PM Tuesday: Mid level ridging will build across the region
for this weekend into early next week. The only chance of rain over
the weekend will be a few ridgetop showers in the higher elevations
of the mountains each afternoon. The next more general chance of
showers will be early next week.

Temperatures over the weekend will be near climo, then trending
above climo early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the forecast period. High pressure will keep dry and quiet
weather in place through today with a few high cirrus clouds
streaming overhead. By tomorrow morning, a weak cold front will
encroach on the area along with an associated band of showers.
Middle and high level clouds will increase in coverage, but no
restrictions are expected. A brief period of showers will be
possible at KAVL, but confidence in coverage outside of the
mountains remains too low to warrant mention in the TAFs at this
time. Winds at KAVL will also shift to out of the north behind the
front.

Outlook: Dry weather returns Thursday into this weekend, but this is
subject to change as a warm front lifts north of the area by
Saturday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...TW