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087
FXUS62 KGSP 100603
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
203 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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The active summertime weather will continue thru the end of the week
and into the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunder-
storms each day. Temperatures will increase again over the weekend
and early next week as an upper ridge amplifies.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 150 AM Thursday: Convection still ongoing across portions of
the area early this morning. Expect this activity to dissipate/move
east before daybreak. Brief heavy rainfall will continue to be
possible in any storms that move through. Low clouds and patchy fog
develop across much of the area by daybreak then scatter out before
noon.

Expect another round of diurnal convection today with a little later
start than usual. CAMs show a line of convection developing over the
mountains and moving south and east across the area through late
afternoon and moving out/dissipating by mid evening in response to a
short wave moving in from the west. Coverage overall looks to be
less than Wednesday, but enough for likely PoP. The atmosphere
becomes moderately unstable but but bulk shear remains 20 kts or
less. Forecast soundings show a moist profile but with some DCAPE
while CAPE profiles look tall and thin. Expect only the chance for
isolated wet microbursts in the stronger storms due to lack of
organization or strong cold pool development. There also looks like
less of a chance of training or merging cells, but isolated areas of
heavy rainfall will again be possible. Isolated flooding could
result, especially if heavy rainfall occurs over areas that saw heavy
rain Wednesday. Fog and low clouds will return for at least a
portion of the area overnight. Highs will be near normal with only a
smattering of heat index values near 100 over the Lakelands. Lows
tonight will be near to slightly above normal.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1:15 AM EDT Thursday: The short-term fcst picks up at 12z on
Friday with broad upper ridging still in place to our east and west.
Numerous, weak upper impulses are expected to translate over our area
and just to our north thru the period. This energy will likely provide
at least some amount of upper support for convection each day.

At the sfc, we will remain under the western periphery of the Bermuda
High thru most of the period. This will keep moist, SWLY low-lvl flow
over our area thru early Sunday. On Sunday, most of the latest model
guidance has the Bermuda High retreating eastward with our winds taking
on more of a WLY to NWLY component from the weak high pressure to our
NW. We can expect active weather each day with sct to numerous showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, with the best coverage
generally expected over the mtns. The persistent moist/active pattern
suggests a continued risk for areas of excessive rainfall and localized
flooding each day. Model profiles continue to support some strong to
severe storms each day as well. High temperatures are expected to be
a few degrees above-normal each day. Heat indices should remain below
Advisory criteria thru the period.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 12:45 AM EDT Thursday: The extended period picks up at 12z on
Sunday and is expected to remain fairly active. It`s looking like the
Bermuda High will retreat somewhat early in the period, with low-lvl
flow across our area losing its persistent SWLY component. Weak sfc
high pressure to our NW will likely keep more of a light, NLY wind
over our CWA into Tuesday. Nonetheless, sfc winds will likely end up
being light and vrb during much of this period. By Wednesday, most of
the long-range guidance has the Bermuda High expanding westward again
with low-level flow favoring a SLY to SWLY direction over the western
Carolinas thru day 7. Aloft, numerous weak shortwaves will move across
the OH and TN valleys and over the central and southern Appalachians
over the weekend and early next week. This energy aloft will help support
above-climo PoPs over the mtns and near-climo PoPs outside the mtns on
Sunday and Monday. From Tuesday onward, diurnal PoPs increase to likely
across most of our fcst area. At this time, there doesn`t appear to be
a significant severe wx threat any particular day, with isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms possible each day. With the moist airmass expected
to persist over our region thru the period, the bigger threat will likely
be excessive rainfall from showers and thunderstorms that could produce
localized flooding. Otherwise, high temperatures are expected to remain
about a category above normal on Sunday and Monday, with values being
closer to normal for the rest of the period. Dewpts are expected to re-
main low enough to keep heat indices below Heat Advisory criteria (ie,
105 degrees) although some values between 100 and 105 are possible over
our southern Upstate and Piedmont zones on Sunday and Monday.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection still ongoing for portions of the
area so have TEMPO for TSRA where chance is highest. Once convection
ends, most guidance is still on board with MVFR stratocu and IFR
stratus developing before daybreak. MVFR to IFR fog, LIFR at KAVL,
also expected with lower conditions possible. Clouds should scatter
out before noon. Expect another round of diurnal convection today
with initiation a little later than normal. Coverage shouldn`t be as
high as Wednesday, so just have PROB30 for now. Convection lingers
into early evening then moves east with VFR. Light and variable wind
outside of lingering convection early this morning picks up from the
SW, NNW at KAVL, during the day. Winds go light later in the
evening.

Outlook: Typical summertime weather is expected into early next
week, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms mainly in the
afternoon/evening and fog and/or low stratus possible each morning.
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&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH