Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 040802
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
302 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will cross the region from the north today. Dry
high pressure will then set up over our region through Friday before
a Gulf Coast low pressure system passes mostly south of the area
Friday night into Saturday. Canadian high pressure builds back into
the area Sunday and will maintain dry conditions through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 am EST: A weak cold front over northern Virginia early
this morning will settle southward and cross the western Carolinas
as a dry cold front this afternoon. This boundary will reinforce dry
air already in place due to the deep-layer northwesterly flow and
associated downsloping east of the mountains. Anticipate plenty of
upper 60s to lower 70s maxes east of the mountains today, with lower
60s in some of the lower mountain valleys. Fire danger from the dry
air and slightly breezy conditions will be the main concern, as
detailed in the fire weather discussion section. Dry high pressure
will then get reinforced from the Great Lakes tonight, with plenty
of minimum temperatures in the 20s and 30s around the region in good
radiating conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...A small scale upper level ridge will remain
in place to begin the period while an energetic h5 low approaches
the Deep South. The atmos will remain quite dry Fri as broad Canadian
sfc hipres continues to ridge across the FA from the NW. This high
will keep winds aligned n/ly and add a component of downslope
warming and combine with a good insol heating potential. Max temps
have been adj up a little and with deeper mixing, expect sfc td/s to
lower more during the afternoon into the lower 20s and possibly
upper teens over most areas. Surface winds will remain low-end,
likely below 10 mph most locales, so it looks like another day of
elevated fire danger, esp across NE GA, as RH values lower below
25%. The upper low crosses overhead Fri night and don/t expect much
fanfare outside of increased cloudiness with stronger and gustier
winds across the mtn ridgetops. The cloud cover will scatter out
fairly quickly Sat and allow good insol once again in the afternoon.
However, the cooler Canadian sfc high will build further SE and help
keep sfc temps a little below normal levels. Still expect dry conds
with td/s in the teens to l20s, but with the cooler temps, RH values
will shud hold up a bit from Fri/s values with readings lowering
into the mid to upper 20s...and thus close to fire-wx concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...A dry ulvl trof will swing over the area Sun
followed closely by a building and strong h5 ridge. This ridge will
slowly cross the east coast through the period and maintain broad
and dry sfc hipres across the FA thru Day 7. A loosely supported
cold front will likely weaken and become moisture limited as it
approaches the NC mtns Wed night, so PoPs have been lowered and
timed slower for this possibility. Afternoon sfc td/s will still
remain quite low Sun and Mon with RH values coming close to elevated
fire danger, however, winds become more sw/ly on Tue which will
instigate a measure of llvl moist adv and thus RH values shud remain
abv fire hazard criteria. However, any timing issues with the sfc front
or large scale synoptic pattern that far out could change the degree
of dryness actually realized. Max temps shud begin the period a
little cooler than normal and rise into the u60s by Wed. Mins will
also warm thru the period with lows beginning below normal and
increasing to abt 10-15 degrees abv normal by Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mainly clear conditions are expected across
the terminal forecast area as deep layer northwest flow continues
and a weak and dry cold front settles southward through the region
today. Low end gusts will be possible through the afternoon hours
with mixing, with gusts into the 20s across western NC. Any spotty
upslope cloudiness near the TN border in the northwest flow should
remain well west of KAVL. The gusts will abate tonight with
continued clear skies under building surface high pressure and
northwest flow.

Outlook: Very dry and VFR conditions will persist through at least
Friday. A Gulf Coast low pressure system will likely pass south of
the terminal area Friday night into Saturday before dry high
pressure returns again for the latter half of the weekend into early
next week.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Already dry profiles today will combine with northwesterly
downsloping flow east of the mountains to dry the air out further,
resulting in min RH values dipping into the upper teens and lower
20s in many areas east of the mountains this afternoon. With mixing,
low end gusts to near 20 mph will be possible in some locations.
Fuels continue to steadily dry out as well, with some RAWS sites
indicating 10-hr moisture values dipping to 7 to 8 percent yesterday
afternoon. A Fire Danger Statement could be needed today for mainly
areas east of the mountains pending coordination with the land
managers this morning. Very dry conditions are expected again on
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG
FIRE WEATHER...HG


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