991
FXUS62 KGSP 301750
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
150 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure to our north will keep temperatures a bit below
normal through the end of the week. Once the high moves off to our
east Saturday night, we should see a slow warm up with a return of
the mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms typical
of late spring and early summer.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM: Expecting another uneventful near term period. Omega
block will continue although the whole pattern will progress slowly
eastward thru Friday. This will bring us out from under the trough
and more under the influence of the ridge and attendant dry sfc
high expanding out of the Ohio Valley. A few cumulus again are seen
in the shallow unstable layer beneath the inversion aloft, still
too undeveloped for mentionable PoPs. The high will tighten the
gradient, amplifying winds slightly in the Piedmont late tonight and
turning them toward the NE. Dewpoints will dip further overnight,
so no fog expected again Fri morning; mins will be 5-7 degrees below
normal. Expect fewer cumulus Fri with deeper/stronger subsidence
aloft and the sfc drying. Max temps overall will be a few below
normal--perhaps trending a degree or two cooler in our eastern
zones, and a degree or two warmer in our southwest compared to
today, reflecting the thickness pattern. Minimum RH Friday will
be quite low for the end of May, below 30 percent in the Piedmont
northeast of I-26. Winds however look to mix out to just a few mph
by the time the RH bottoms out, so not anticipating wildfire danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1247 AM EDT Thursday: The first part of the weekend still
looks relatively quiet as a mid/upper ridge builds in further Friday
night, which finally brings a center of sfc high pressure down
over the Carolinas on Saturday morning. Once the ridge axis
crosses overhead and moves toward the coast on Saturday, the
high gets pushed offshore and the moisture will start to move
back up from the Gulf of Mexico. Think that Saturday afternoon
should be rain-free at this time, with temps returning to
normal. However, Saturday night there will be a small chance
that showers could move in from the southwest or develop over
the southern mountains in the light southerly upslope flow
overnight. Some of the guidance is more aggressive with bringing
some precip in from the west, perhaps because of some sort of
loosely organized convective system developing closer to a cold
front to our west Saturday afternoon/evening and then making a
run at the mountains. Prefer to keep the precip probs low over
the mtns until we get a better sense for that potential in the
HREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 243 AM EDT Thursday: The medium range continues to look like
a return to summer-like mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms
beginning Sunday. The upper pattern should feature a flattened
nearly-zonal flow, but with several weak waves running through it,
the strongest of which may dampen as it moves past to the north on
Sunday. The suggestion in some of the guidance is that a remnant
weak cold front will get strung out west-east across the region
in the wake of this wave, and that would act as a focus for more
storms as moisture remains pooled over the region for the rest
of the period. Meanwhile, other convectively-induced waves could
move along and across the region on any given day. Precip probs
a bit above climo seem appropriate, with a peak in the mid/late
afternoon each day. The details are too sketchy for anything else
for now. Not yet buying the GFS and its closed low over the region
by mid-week. So, we will keep to the plan of temps gradually rising
above climo and eventually reaching mid/upper 80s with increasing
humidity as we work through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR. Once again FEW-SCT cumulus will
be seen this aftn around the region at 050-070, but no precip
expected. Light, generally northerly winds will exhibit some
variability especially at the SC sites. Upper trough remains over
the NE CONUS, and as this feature shifts east dry sfc high will
build more effectively into the area tonight. Jet streak upstream of
main trough axis may introduce some cirrus, but low levels remain
dry. Sfc high will enhance gradient and basically bring in a dry
backdoor front, suggesting winds veer to NE and pick up a bit in
the wee hours Fri morning. Can`t entirely rule out some fog in a
few mountain valleys, although chance at KAVL looks minimal.

Outlook: VFR conditions and dry weather through Saturday. Shower
and thunderstorm chances return by the end of the weekend and into
next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...Wimberley