Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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000
AXGM70 PGUM 180202
DGTGUM
PMZ161-171>174-181-GUZ001>004-020400-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1145 AM CHST THU APR 18 2019

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA...

SYNOPSIS...
AFTER THE PASSAGES OF SUPER TYPHOON WUTIP AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W
ACROSS THE REGION SEVERAL WEEKS AGO...THE POST EL NINO-LIKE DRY WEATHER
HAS RETURNED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE SPRING OF 2019. THE
NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...THE ISLANDS OF THE
COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND OTHER AREAS SUCH AS
WESTERN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU HAVE RECEIVED MUCH LESS
THAN NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.

THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS HAVE WORSENED AND THAT
TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKS. SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN
PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN THE DRIEST OF THE ISLANDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SUFFER FROM VERY DRY WEATHER.

DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEEPENED FOR ATOLLS AND ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT RESIDENTS OF THESE ATOLLS
IMPLEMENT STRICT WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. MAJURO HAS ALSO BEEN DRY
RECENTLY WHILE THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF THE RMI HAVE RECEIVED PATCHY BUT
SUFFICIENT RAINFALL. MUCH DRIER WEATHER COULD DEVELOP AND ALL PEOPLE OF
THE RMI SHOULD SERIOUSLY CONSIDER WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. SEE
SUGGESTIONS BELOW AND CONTACT LOCAL WATER MANAGERS FOR WATER
CONSERVATION GUIDELINES.

COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE PREDICTION THAT DRIER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SOME OF YAP STATE. YAP
STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU IN WESTERN MICRONESIA DID RECEIVE SOME
PATCHY SHOWERS BUT ARE PROJECTED TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. ALTHOUGH
THE MAIN ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA APPEAR TO HAVE SUFFICIENT WATER
RESOURCES AT THIS TIME...THEY SHOULD PLAN FOR DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS.

THE OPERATIONAL U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS THAT UTIRIK AND WOTJE OF THE
NORTHERN MARSHALLS...AND SAIPAN AND TINIAN OF THE MARIANAS ARE IN
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT D4-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4). MAJURO AND
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE OF THE MARSHALLS ALONG WITH GUAM ARE IN EXTREME DROUGHT
D3-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). YAP AND ROTA ARE IN SEVERE
DROUGHT D2-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4). PALAU AND FANANU OF
CHUUK STATE ARE IN MODERATE DROUGHT D1-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF
4). AILINGLAPLAP OF THE MARSHALLS AND WOLEAI OF YAP STATE ARE
ABNORMALLY DRY D0-S (SHORT-TERM ABNORMALLY DRY). MANY OF THESE VALUES
WILL WORSEN IN THE COMING WEEKS SINCE THE DRYING PROCESS CAN OCCUR
FAIRLY RAPIDLY...WITHIN 1 TO 2 WEEKS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS...
WOTJE HAS REPORTED 0.0 INCH AND UTIRIK ONLY 0.08 OF RAINFALL SO FAR IN
APRIL. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN VERY BRIEF AND FAST MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
RMI. UTIRIK...WOTJE AND OTHER ATOLLS ALONG AND NORTH OF 8N SUCH AS
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE...BIKINI...UJAE...RONGELAP...AILUK...AND ENEWETAK
ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND MAY RECEIVE BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THE REST OF APRIL. FOOD SOURCES ARE
EXPECTED TO SHRINK AND EVENTUALLY DRY OUT. AT EBEYE...HEALTH ISSUES
RELATED TO WATER PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

OTHER ISLANDS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...
SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THIS AREA RECENTLY BUT RAINFALL HAS BEEN
VARIABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE RMI. SOME OF THESE
LOCATIONS INCLUDE MAJURO...ARNO...MILI...JALUIT...AILINGALAPLAP...
MALOELAP AND OTHER SOUTHERN ATOLLS. LOW RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
COMING WEEKS AND WATER RESOURCES WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN
THESE AREAS. DUE TO THEIR LARGE POPULATIONS...MAJURO AND EBEYE SHOULD
CAREFULLY MONITOR AND REGULATE FRESH WATER RESOURCES.

IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THAT DISCARDED CIGARETTES HAVE CAUSED SOME FIRES
ON MAJURO. THE MAJURO DUMP HAD A LARGE FIRE RECENTLY AND IS HIGHLY
VULNERABLE TO ANOTHER.

MARIANA ISLANDS...

THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI)...
BOTH SAIPAN AND TINIAN HAVE RECEIVED VERY LOW RAINFALL SO FAR IN APRIL.
ROTA RECEIVED 0.77 INCH AT THE AIRPORT BUT LIKELY MUCH LESS OVER OTHER
PARTS OF THE ISLAND. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPOTTY AND BRIEF. RAINFALL HAS
BEEN ABNORMALLY LOW OVER THE COMMONWEALTH SINCE JANUARY AND RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REGION FROM APRIL INTO MAY.
SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA AND THE MORE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS WILL
EXPERIENCE WORSENING DROUGHT IMPACTS DURING THE COMING WEEKS AS SHEAR-
LINE RAINFALL DIMINISHES.

IN PARTICULAR FOR SAIPAN...THE DRAW-DOWN OF FRESH WATER RESOURCES COULD
BE A PROBLEM IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS TO MONTHS. VEGETATION WILL DRY OUT
AND A SEVERE WILDFIRE SEASON COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE DEBRIS
FROM TYPHOON YUTU REMAINS.

GUAM...
GUAM AIRPORT RECEIVED ONLY 0.66 INCH OF RAINFALL SO FAR IN APRIL. VERY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKS AND GUAM RAINFALL WILL BE
MONITORED CAREFULLY. THE RISK OF GRASS FIRES WILL INCREASE ACROSS GUAM.

IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES...
THE WEATHER HAS BEEN DRY OVER PALAU AND YAP STATE. PATCHY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOPED OVER CHUUK STATE MOVED WEST ACROSS THE REGION RECENTLY...BUT
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH APRIL FOR YAP STATE AND PALAU.

SMALLER ISLANDS WITH LIMITED WATER SUPPLIES WILL BE MOST AT RISK IN THE
COMING WEEKS SINCE VERY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP ROOF TOPS AND CATCHMENT AREAS CLEAN AND
CAREFULLY MANAGE WATER RESOURCES.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE PRODUCED SOME RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF MICRONESIA
RECENTLY BUT DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF 8N. THE EL NINO ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER REMAINS IN EFFECT. DESPITE THE LATENESS OF THE EL NINO
ADVISORY...THE WEATHER PATTERNS OVER MICRONESIA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
MONTHS HAVE PRODUCED EL NINO-LIKE WEATHER AND IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR MICRONESIA...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A POST-EL
NINO DRY PERIOD.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                      DEC    JAN    FEB    MAR    APR  APR NORM  APR (%)
                      1-31   1-31   1-28   1-31   1-15   1-15    1-15
RMI
UTIRIK                2.83   1.91   0.30   0.08   0.08   1.53     5
WOTJE                 6.63   1.93   1.18   0.30   0.0    1.76     0
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE       6.58   1.54   4.82   1.22   1.08   3.11    35
WSO MAJURO           12.71   7.23   5.09   6.13   0.99   4.82    21
MILI                 12.00   8.50   8.79  15.92   2.14   5.23    41
AILINGLAPLAP          7.28   3.19  10.30   6.90   0.17   3.66     5
JALUIT*               4.21   2.93   7.04   8.73   4.75   5.92    80

FSM (EAST TO WEST)
KOSRAE (SAWRS)        7.50  15.58  12.62  18.72  13.77   9.76   141
WSO POHNPEI          16.11  16.00   7.57  18.91   6.36   8.88    72
FANANU                5.33   8.92   3.08   5.43   4.10   4.12   100
LUKUNOR               7.89  12.41   6.33   8.80   6.55   5.93   110
WSO CHUUK             8.53  18.49   8.87  14.56   4.54   6.11    74
POLOWAT**             3.93   3.64   0.69   3.54   4.14   4.40    94
WOLEAI ATOLL          9.02   6.37   2.83   6.07   2.64   4.22    63
ULITHI***             7.48  11.13   1.10   M      M      M       M
WSO YAP              10.68  15.90   1.57   4.88   2.10   2.86    73

REPUBLIC OF PALAU
WSO PALAU            11.48   9.79   3.45   6.24   3.63   5.28    69

MARIANAS
SAIPAN AP             5.29   1.76   1.54   0.53   0.41   1.16    35
TINIAN AP             2.61   2.88   4.02   0.98   1.16   1.36    85
ROTA AP               6.41   4.94   2.83   1.99   0.77   2.33    33
GUAM AP               7.75   4.24   6.90   0.81   0.66   1.79    37

*   JALUIT DEC 2018 RAINFALL UNDERESTIMATED DUE TO INSTRUMENT LOCATION
**  POLOWAT MISSING WUTIP RAINFALL
*** ULITHI RAINFALL ESTIMATED BASED ON YAP DATA AND SATELLITE DATA

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MORE SUNSHINE WITH THE SUN OVERHEAD
DURING THIS SEASON...AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER WILL DOMINATE IN THE
COMING WEEKS. THIS WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF
THE REGION WHICH WILL FURTHER STRESS WATER RESOURCES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF 8 NORTH LATITUDE
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. THIS INCLUDES AREAS FROM ENEWETAK TO
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE AND FROM WOTJE AND MALOELAP TO UTIRIK. BRIEF FAST-
MOVING SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS...BUT NORTHERN LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPECT VERY
LOW RAINFALL.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS INCLUDING MAJURO...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER MAJURO AND THE
SOUTHERN RMI...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE. RAINFALL COULD
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THE NEXT WEEK AND 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS...WITH MAJURO LIKELY ON THE LOW SIDE. WATER SUPPLIES ON
THE MORE POPULATED ISLANDS OF MAJURO AND EBEYE WILL BE STRESSED. PEOPLE
ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES...
1. PEOPLE WITH CATCHMENTS NEED TO CLEAN ROOFS AND GUTTERS, AND
CATCHMENTS, BUT DON`T WASTE CATCHMENT WATER
2. CATCHMENT WATER SHOULD BE FOR DRINKING ONLY
3. WELL WATER WILL LIKELY BECOME BRACKISH AND SHOULD ONLY BE USED FOR
COOKING AND WASHING
4. BOIL WELL AND CATCHMENT WATER FOR DRINKING
5. SEA LEVELS WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE MARSHALLS UNTIL MAY OR JUNE. THIS
MEANS THAT PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO PUMP WATER HARDER TO GET IT TO THE
SURFACE. BE CAREFUL NOT TO OVER-PUMP AND DRAW SALT WATER INTO THE FRESH
WATER LENS. WHEN WATER IS SCARCE, HEALTH ISSUES SUCH AS PINK EYE AND
GASTRO-INTESTINAL PROBLEMS BECOME MORE COMMON AND MORE SERIOUS.
DEHYDRATION IS A MAJOR PROBLEM DURING DROUGHT PERIODS.

THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARIANAS IN THE COMING WEEKS.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF
INCH IN THE NEXT WEEK...AND A HALF INCH UP TO ONE INCH THROUGH THE NEXT
TWO WEEKS. THE LOWER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN
AND ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH.

SAIPAN IN PARTICULAR SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS. GUAM
COULD RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
ALL THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE COMING WEEKS. THE FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES...
PATCHY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES OVER THE REGION...BUT MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKS. CHUUK AND POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE STATES RECEIVED BENEFICIAL SHOWERS RECENTLY...WHILE PALAU AND
YAP STATE HAVE RECEIVED ONLY PATCHY SHOWERS IN THE PAST WEEKS. COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN PATCHY SHOWERS OVER MOST OF
THE REGION IN THE NEXT WEEK...THEN 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.

AT WENO AND FANANU OF CHUUK STATE...THE RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE WITH
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES DURING THE NEXT WEEK AND 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH
THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR FANANU IN THE
HALL ISLANDS AND NAMONUITO ATOLL.

POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES WILL RECEIVE SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
NEAR KOSRAE AND SOUTH TOWARD THE EQUATOR. DRIEST CONDITIONS OVER
MICRONESIA ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF 8N FROM THE DATE LINE
WESTWARD TO 130E.

LOOKING FORWARD...RAINFALL AND WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. THE REMOTE AND SMALLER ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA WILL BE MOST AT
RISK.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY 2 MAY 2019 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION
OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ NWS WFO GUAM AT
HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS...
HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. ALSO...THE PACIFIC ENSO
APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH...
CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS ARE SOUTH OF 10N FROM 130E EASTWARD TO
BEYOND THE DATE LINE. THE AREA INCLUDES KAPINGAMARANGI. FOR INFORMATION
SEE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT
HTTPS://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF
HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE AND THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
MAJURO. ALSO THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES AND NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF
WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...WFO TIYAN
GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 OR EMAILED
AT W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

GUARD/SIMPSON/BUKUNT

$$


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