Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 021611 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1111 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Very cold wind chill values are expected today along with wind gusts of 40 to 55 MPH. Power outages are likely. However, the brutal cold will be short lived as temperatures get back into the 30s and 40s on Wednesday. Thereafter, little if any precipitation is expected for the rest of the week outside of mountain snow showers. However, colder than normal temperatures are expected on average, especially by the end of the week. Temperatures likely rebound early next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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1100 AM Update... Performed a general refresh of today`s forecast according to latest observations. Looking to observations and the probabilistic suite, wind gusts have peaked for most places and are peaking for the Midcoast and further Downeast. Added blowing snow to the mountains through the day as webcams show as much. Also allowed the Wind Chill Warning over Coos Co and the northern tier of western Maine zones to expire on time then replaced this with a wind chill advisory through the afternoon. Overall the forecast is on track with conditions improving late this afternoon and evening. 725am Update...Only minor changes to PoPs at this time as light snow showers continue over portions of the region. Also updated temperatures to fall in line with the latest observations. No other changes at this time. Impacts...Strong and gusty northwest winds will produce a variety of impacts today before diminishing this evening. Very cold to dangerously cold wind chills are expected this morning in and north of the mountains, while wind chills will still be quite cold elsewhere. Power outages are likely as well as winds gust in the 40 to 55 mph range in the wind advisory area and higher in the high wind warning area. The core of the upper level low/tropopause polar vortex is now located over Downeast Maine and continues to move east. We did see some stronger snow squalls last evening as this feature approached, but with the best forcing now to our east, only some ordinary snow showers are streaming over the region at this hour and should diminish over the next couple of hours. But strong, gusty northwest winds are ongoing in the wake of the TPV...allowing a very cold air mass to filter into northern New England this morning. The first impact from the very cold temperatures and the gusty winds will be very cold to dangerously cold wind chills in and north of the mountains; the wind chill headlines remain in place and unchanged. The second impact is from the gusty winds themselves as power outages are likely throughout the CWA and travel will be difficult for those in high-profile vehicles. The setup and potential for strong gusts remains mostly unchanged from previous forecast thinking; higher elevations will see the highest gusts and downsloping effects on the lee side of the mountains will allow strong gusts for those areas as well. The only change to the wind headlines was to add southern Carroll and northern Oxford counties to the high wind warning after incorporating some of the more recent model guidance. Will continue to monitor for potential additions to the high wind warning this morning as some areas, particularly southern NH, have already overachieved a bit. The strongest winds still look most likely to occur between 12Z and 18Z with mid-morning accordingly looking like the peak. As far as temperatures and other sensible weather...this will be the coldest day of the next several as highs only rise into the positive single digits in the mountains and the mid teens to mid 20s elsewhere. Other than a stray snow shower or two in the mountains, no precipitation is expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Impacts...Minimal. The gusty northwest winds will diminish as we head into the evening hours while a weak area of low pressure pushes a warm front toward New England. Temperatures will gradually warm through the night and we could see a some light snow over western portions of NH, mainly after midnight. Wednesday looks quiet as well with a stray snow shower possible in the mountains and dry conditions elsewhere; highs will be some 20 degrees or so higher than today, ranging from the upper 20s north to the upper 30s to lower 40s south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The long term period will start off with another push of cold air later Wednesday night and Thursday. However, the air mass will not be as cold and windy as today`s. However, highs will be below normal Thu, Fri, and Sat with gusty NW winds around 30 MPH. The long term portion looks dry as well with little in the way of measurable precipitation expected outside of some mountains snow showers. By later in the weekend and early next week, there are signals that a warming trend will take place as troffing over the West Coast develops and aids in a flattening of the flow or ridging pattern to develop on the East Coast. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...Gusty northwest winds are the story today; no precipitation is expected outside of some very light snow showers this morning. Widespread VFR conditions expected along with the gusty winds today; similar conditions tonight, but the winds begin to diminish around 00Z. Widespread VFR conditions on Wednesday. Long Term...VFR continues Wednesday night through the weekend outside of some intermittent lower conditions in the mountains due to upslope clouds and snow showers. Winds will get gusty again Thu and Fri as a secondary cold front moves across the forecast area. NWly gusts Thu and Fri may reach 30 knots. && .MARINE... Short Term...Freezing spray and storm/gale headlines remain in effect through this afternoon and evening. Conditions will improve after 00Z, but SCA conditions will likely linger through tonight over the outer waters...and possibly into Wednesday for the outer waters between Port Clyde and Stonington. Long Term...SCA conditions likely most of mid to late week, mainly on the outer waters where westerly flow gusts 25 to 30 kt. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...High Wind Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ007>009- 012-013. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ014-018>028- 033. Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ007>009. NH...High Wind Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NHZ004-006. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NHZ001>003-005- 007>015. Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NHZ001- 002. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ150>153. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ153. Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ150>152-154. Freezing Spray Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...Casey/Watson SHORT TERM...Watson LONG TERM...Ekster

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