Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 261839 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 239 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will approach from the west tonight before crossing the region tomorrow. This will bring widespread rain showers to the region starting early in the day over the Connecticut River Valley. Some of the showers may turn convective with a threat for locally heavy rainfall. Cooler and drier air returns midweek, before more humid and warm conditions return late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Very warm and humid conditions will continue this evening. Much of the Cu and any widely scattered and light shower activity will dissipate after sunset, however clouds will begin to increase from the west. With an onshore flow continuing, some low clouds and fog may make it into the Midcoast region overnight. This is supported by the latest HREF probabilities. Otherwise, the increase in cloud cover will help mitigate the development of fog across the interior. It will be a warm night with low temperatures only near 70 degrees over portions of southernmost New Hampshire.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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A cold front then crosses the region on Monday. Slow moving showers will combine with precipitable water values approaching two inches to produce locally heavy rainfall. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible as well. The cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures much cooler than today. Highs will be in the 70s in most areas with 60s along the Midcoast. Rainfall will be potentially up to around a half inch in some portions of Maine and New Hampshire. Clearing will then occur behind the departing cold front late in the day and also Monday night. However, some cloudiness may linger in the mountains as an upper level low crosses the region. In upslope regions, a light shower may fall during the night. It will be noticeably cooler with lows in the 40s across the north and 50s in the south.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Overview: A return to a much more comfortable airmass and drier conditions is expected on Tuesday behind a cold frontal passage. Mainly dry conditions will then continue Tuesday night through Thursday night before a cold front begins to approach from the west during the Friday to Saturday timeframe, bringing with it renewed chances for showery weather. Impacts: Little to no major weather related impacts are expected for the long term portion of the forecast. Forecast Details: On Tuesday 500 mb shortwave troughing will swing through New England, which will allow for a very comfortable day with high temperatures into the lower 70s across the north to the upper 70s in southern NH with low humidity. Surface high pressure will begin to move over the region on Tuesday night, which will allow for light winds and mainly clear skies. As a result, low temperatures will be on the cool side with 40s across the north to the 50s elsewhere. High pressure will shift offshore on Wednesday, which will allow for another dry and comfortable day. Onshore flow will keep much of western ME into the 70s while southern NH warms into the lower to middle 80s. A weak area of low pressure passing over the Crown of ME on Wednesday night may result in an isolated shower across northern and eastern areas but most locations will remain dry. Overnight lows will not be quite as cool as Tuesday night due to some increased cloud cover and therefore expecting most locations to only fall into the 50s. Heights will then begin to rise on Thursday ahead of an approaching shortwave ridge, which will allow 850 mb temperatures to climb up into the lower to middle teens while 925 mb temperatures warm to around 20C. This will translate to a warmer day with most locations south of the mountains topping out into the 80s during the afternoon. This ridge will then crest over New England on Friday, which will allow for very warm high temperatures into the middle 80s across interior southwestern ME to the lower 90s in southern NH. Along the coast, the southerly wind off the cool Gulf of Maine will limit highs to the 70s to near 80. An approaching cold front to our west may spark an isolated shower across the north during the afternoon hours but most locations will likely remain dry through the daylight hours. Rain chances will then increase late Friday night through at least the first half of the upcoming weekend as a slow moving cold front crosses through the region. As is typically the case this far out, there remains considerable variability amongst both deterministic and ensemble guidance as to potential rainfall amounts and timing but current indications are that the best chance for rain may occur during the Saturday afternoon to evening hours. A lingering shower cannot be ruled out on Sunday, mainly along the coast as the front finally exits the area to the east but elsewhere mainly dry conditions are likely.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Short Term...VFR prevails in the near term through this evening with a southerly flow for all areas. A fog bank or LIFR CIGs may work in late tonight for KRKD... then widespread restrictions are expected on Monday with a crossing cold front accompanied by rain showers and embedded downpours. Conditions will improve to VFR from west to east during the afternoon and evening, prevailing thereafter. Long Term...High pressure will allow for light winds and mainly sunny skies on Tuesday through Wednesday. An isolated shower will be possible across northern TAF sites on Wednesday night as a weak disturbance passes to our north but little in the way of flight restrictions are expected. After a dry day on Thursday, an approaching cold front to our west will bring increasing rain chances towards Friday afternoon and night.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term...Have hoisted SCAs for Monday along the coastal waters as a southerly gradient increases during the day. These flags will continue into Monday night for the outer waters. Long Term...High pressure over the waters will allow for an extended period of mostly light winds and fair seas through Thursday. Southerly winds may begin to approach SCA criteria on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... The KGYX WSR-88D is currently inoperable due to a mechanical failure. A return to service is estimated to be Monday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ025>028. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ151- 153. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Tubbs

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