Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --053 FXUS61 KGYX 101625 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1125 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure crosses the Northeast today and allows for fair weather and relatively warm temperatures. A warm front lifts through the region tonight with some showers followed by a strong cold front crossing Tuesday. These fronts will bring chances for precipitation, while amounts will be light. High pressure builds back into New England Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...-- Changed Discussion --1125 AM...Two updates worth mentioning this morning, first is I adjust temps a bit, and based on current obs/trends maxes today ended up dropping by a degree or so in some spots. Also, pushed back the arrival of thicker clouds, the mid level stuff by an hour or two, which should mostly com in around or after sunset. 620 AM Update...Very little change to the going forecast other than to adjust local temperatures where strong radiational cooling has taken place overnight. Previously... High pressure ridging over the area early today will gradually move offshore resulting in increasing clouds this afternoon. Southwesterly winds and a reasonable amount of low level mixing should get all areas into the 50s today. Dry weather is expected although there could be a few sprinkles across southwestern NH by sunset as a warm front approaches from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A quick moving warm front will move across the forecast area tonight allowing for the likelihood of showers. Forcing for ascent looks to be weak and moisture availability quite paltry. The result should be less than a quarter inch of rain on average that will end early Monday morning. Monday will be relatively warm with highs around 55 in the mountain valleys to the lower to mid 60s on the coastal plain and across southern NH. Low level mixing on Monday should be sufficient for southwesterly gusts of 20 to 30 MPH. Another cold front approaches and crosses Monday night. While the front looks to be quite strong, good moisture in the column will be lacking and therefore allow for minimal amounts of precipitation. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong CAA behind the front Monday night and good mixing Tuesday will bring gusty NW winds across the area Tuesday, perhaps gusting to as high as 35 MPH. High pressure builds in along the East Coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will allow for winds to subside and mostly sunny skies. Highs of Wednesday will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than Monday and will range from the 30s north to the 40s across the south. High pressure along the East Coast starts to compress from a trough approaching from the west and an upper low southeast of Nova Scotia Thursday. Various model solutions bring chances for precipitation from the approaching trough or the upper low retrograding into the Canadian Maritimes while others keep the area dry. Have mainly stuck with the NBM for PoPs through the end of the period, which brings chance to slight chances Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...VFR today. A warm front moves through tonight with light rain or rain showers which may lower cigs into the 700-1500 ft range for a few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions resume Monday except in the mountains where MVFR cigs could persist. Long Term...Mainly VFR Monday night and Tuesday south of the mountains while KHIE will see potential restrictions in low cigs and SHRASN. A cold front crosses Monday night bringing a period of gusty NW winds around 25-35 kts on Tuesday. VFR is likely for all TAF sites Wednesday into Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA conditions expected off the Midcoast zones late this afternoon through Monday afternoon. South of there, some SCA gusts will be possible, but winds will overall be weaker. Long Term...A cold front crosses Monday night shifting winds out of the NW with gusts approaching gale force along the outer waters. Winds and seas drop below SCA thresholds Wednesday as high pressure builds into New England. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EST Monday for ANZ150-152. && $$ NEAR TERM...Cempa/Ekster SHORT TERM...Ekster LONG TERM...Ekster/Schroeter