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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 221736 AAB
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1236 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control of the weather across
northern New England through the weekend. Temperatures will
really begin moderating today. High temperatures will climb
above freezing for most areas today, with southern areas making
a run at 50 on Sunday. Above normal temperatures continue into
the beginning of next week. By the middle and latter portions of
next week, a series of weather systems will likely bring a
period of unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1235 PM Update...
Much warmer day in progress compared to yesterday, with
temperatures in the upper 20s to upper 30s across the area. GOES
satellite imagery shows a few stubborn stratus clouds north of
the higher terrain, along with some cirrus drifting southeast
across northern New England. Made a few changes to sky cover as
well as hourly temperature grids; however forecast is largely on
track.


1028 AM Update...
Made a few local changes to temperature grids based on
observations. Otherwise forecast is on track with temperatures
warming into the upper 20s/lower 30s north to the upper
30s/lower 40s south.


Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.

Previous discussion...A mostly mid/upper level front will cross
the area this morning. There is little evidence of a surface
reflection...with surface winds remaining WSW behind the upper
trof. The nighttime microphysics composite image shows a pocket
of trapped moisture behind the front...that is poised to move
into the mtns today. Despite that...with surface winds remaining
SWly and mid level winds Wly...the upslope signal is not a
favorable one. I have pretty low PoP in the higher terrain...and
prefer more flurry wording to actual chance of measurable
precip in snow showers.

Should see much of the area climb to at or above freezing for
highs as moderating temps expected on the backside of the high
pressure system sagging S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Surface ridging builds back into the area tonight behind the
departing front. We keep generally Wly flow aloft...with
moisture steadily decreasing in the mid levels. This will mean a
gradual decrease in upslope cloud cover into Sun morning.

As we continue to moderate temps lows will be much warmer for
most places tonight than the past couple. Readings will be right
around 20 for most locations...with valleys that are able to
decouple dropping into the lower teens or even single digits. On
Sun even with conservative mixing offered by forecast soundings
highs are likely to top out in the mid to upper 40s S of the
mtns. It wouldn`t take much of a mixing height
error...especially with SW surface winds to see readings in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview: Broad high pressure over the eastern U.S. will remain
dominant Sunday night into Monday as our quiet stretch of
weather continues. The rest of the long term period is expected
to be more active as a pair of low pressure systems bring
precipitation to our region. The first system (late Tuesday into
Wednesday) looks less impressive than in previous days, but the
second one (late Wednesday through early Friday) could bring
significant precipitation in the form of rain and snow.

Impacts: No high impact weather anticipated at this time...but the
active period of weather next week will need to be monitored for
potential impacts in the form of accumulating snow affecting
roadways/commutes and/or rainfall potentially leading to ice
jams.

Details: A broad area of surface high pressure stretching over much
of the eastern U.S. will begin to move east into the western
Atlantic Sunday night into Monday as an area of low pressure
moves through the south-central U.S. A weak disturbance will
also be moving through Quebec over the same period, and an area
of high pressure between the two systems will begin to nudge
into New England late Monday. Overall, this part of the forecast
is expected to be dry with warm temperatures. In fact, Monday
looks like the warmest day of the long term period as highs
approach 50 degrees in southern NH and southwest ME; some
locations could rise into the lower 50s. Above average
temperatures will continue through Thursday, though Wednesday
and Thursday will be cooler than Monday and Tuesday.

Global deterministic guidance continues to indicate that the weather
for our region becomes decidedly more active and unsettled in
the middle to latter part of next week. An area of low pressure
is still expected to reach the Ohio Valley/western Great Lakes
by Tuesday morning but will weaken as the day progresses. A few
days ago, Tuesday looked like a rather wet day for our region,
but the trend over this time frame has been toward a drier
solution as the primary pieces of energy related to this system
remain to our west and south. However, light rain showers will
be possible for southern locations during the day and many
locations in central and southern NH could see precipitation
Tuesday night, likely in the form of light snow.

Wednesday and Thursday will see another area of low pressure develop
near or over our region as a potent upper-level trough develops
over the central U.S. and moves east. The intensity and
location of that trough will have an influence on the ultimate
track of this second area of low pressure, which the latest
deterministic guidance actually tracks right along the NH and
southwest ME coasts. However, ensemble guidance again has
potential tracks from the western Great Lakes to the outer
portions of the Gulf of Maine...so there will be much to figure
out with this system as we get closer to this part of the
forecast.

The latest multi-model blended consensus temperatures favor a colder
solution that would result in mostly snow or a rain/snow mix
for all but the southernmost locations in the CWA...but again,
this part of the forecast will likely change over the next
several days. One thing to watch is precipitation amounts with
this system. Latest ensemble guidance indicates that QPF amounts
up to an inch are possible with this system...so whether that
falls as snow or rain, potential impacts such as accumulating
snow affecting commutes or rainfall leading to ice jams on
rivers would be possible.

By Friday morning, the area of low pressure should be moving
into New Brunswick, but the mountains will likely see continued
upslope snow showers through the day in the wake of the system
in west-northwest flow. After the extended run of above average
temperatures, Friday and the weekend could see a return to near
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Widespread VFR conditions continue ahead of a weak
front approaching from the NW. As SW flow increases ahead of the
front some marginal LLWS conditions remain possible at HIE thru
the morning. Otherwise some BKN MVFR CIGs will move into Nrn
zones this afternoon with the front. Not confident that they
move all the way into HIE...but I cannot rule out a stray
flurry.

Long Term...VFR conditions at all terminals Sunday night through
early Tuesday. MVFR conditions thereafter under cloudy skies
with potential periods of IFR conditions in -SHSN Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SW winds are increasing ahead of a weak front that
will cross the waters today. Marginal SCA conditions will
continue into the early afternoon before winds and seas
diminish. After that conditions remain below SCA thresholds thru
Sun.
Seas briefly build to 5 ft in the central and northern outer water
zones on Monday before subsiding Monday night. An extended period of
seas greater than 5 ft over the outer waters begins early Wednesday
morning and continues through the end of the period as a series of
low pressure systems affect the waters. Winds look to remain below
25 kt for the entire long term period. Long Term...Seas and
winds below SCA criteria through Wednesday as high pressure
dominates the region. Conditions become unsettled thereafter as
a pair of low pressure systems affect the waters. Extended
periods of SCA conditions likely from Wednesday night through
Friday over the outer waters where seas are currently forecast
to build to >10 ft Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hanes
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Watson