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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 021611
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1111 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Very cold wind chill values are expected today along with wind
gusts of 40 to 55 MPH. Power outages are likely. However, the
brutal cold will be short lived as temperatures get back into
the 30s and 40s on Wednesday. Thereafter, little if any
precipitation is expected for the rest of the week outside of
mountain snow showers. However, colder than normal temperatures
are expected on average, especially by the end of the week.
Temperatures likely rebound early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1100 AM Update... Performed a general refresh of today`s
forecast according to latest observations. Looking to
observations and the probabilistic suite, wind gusts have peaked
for most places and are peaking for the Midcoast and further
Downeast. Added blowing snow to the mountains through the day as
webcams show as much. Also allowed the Wind Chill Warning over
Coos Co and the northern tier of western Maine zones to expire
on time then replaced this with a wind chill advisory through
the afternoon. Overall the forecast is on track with conditions
improving late this afternoon and evening.

725am Update...Only minor changes to PoPs at this time as light
snow showers continue over portions of the region. Also updated
temperatures to fall in line with the latest observations. No
other changes at this time.

Impacts...Strong and gusty northwest winds will produce a
variety of impacts today before diminishing this evening. Very
cold to dangerously cold wind chills are expected this morning
in and north of the mountains, while wind chills will still be
quite cold elsewhere. Power outages are likely as well as winds
gust in the 40 to 55 mph range in the wind advisory area and
higher in the high wind warning area.

The core of the upper level low/tropopause polar vortex is now
located over Downeast Maine and continues to move east. We did
see some stronger snow squalls last evening as this feature
approached, but with the best forcing now to our east, only some
ordinary snow showers are streaming over the region at this
hour and should diminish over the next couple of hours.

But strong, gusty northwest winds are ongoing in the wake of the
TPV...allowing a very cold air mass to filter into northern New
England this morning. The first impact from the very cold
temperatures and the gusty winds will be very cold to
dangerously cold wind chills in and north of the mountains; the
wind chill headlines remain in place and unchanged.

The second impact is from the gusty winds themselves as power
outages are likely throughout the CWA and travel will be
difficult for those in high-profile vehicles. The setup and
potential for strong gusts remains mostly unchanged from
previous forecast thinking; higher elevations will see the
highest gusts and downsloping effects on the lee side of the
mountains will allow strong gusts for those areas as well. The
only change to the wind headlines was to add southern Carroll
and northern Oxford counties to the high wind warning after
incorporating some of the more recent model guidance. Will
continue to monitor for potential additions to the high wind
warning this morning as some areas, particularly southern NH,
have already overachieved a bit. The strongest winds still look
most likely to occur between 12Z and 18Z with mid-morning
accordingly looking like the peak.

As far as temperatures and other sensible weather...this will be
the coldest day of the next several as highs only rise into the
positive single digits in the mountains and the mid teens to mid
20s elsewhere. Other than a stray snow shower or two in the
mountains, no precipitation is expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Impacts...Minimal.

The gusty northwest winds will diminish as we head into the
evening hours while a weak area of low pressure pushes a warm
front toward New England. Temperatures will gradually warm
through the night and we could see a some light snow over
western portions of NH, mainly after midnight. Wednesday looks
quiet as well with a stray snow shower possible in the mountains
and dry conditions elsewhere; highs will be some 20 degrees or
so higher than today, ranging from the upper 20s north to the
upper 30s to lower 40s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term period will start off with another push of cold
air later Wednesday night and Thursday. However, the air mass
will not be as cold and windy as today`s. However, highs will be
below normal Thu, Fri, and Sat with gusty NW winds around 30
MPH. The long term portion looks dry as well with little in the
way of measurable precipitation expected outside of some
mountains snow showers. By later in the weekend and early next
week, there are signals that a warming trend will take place as
troffing over the West Coast develops and aids in a flattening
of the flow or ridging pattern to develop on the East Coast.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Gusty northwest winds are the story today; no
precipitation is expected outside of some very light snow
showers this morning. Widespread VFR conditions expected along
with the gusty winds today; similar conditions tonight, but the
winds begin to diminish around 00Z. Widespread VFR conditions on
Wednesday.

Long Term...VFR continues Wednesday night through the weekend
outside of some intermittent lower conditions in the mountains
due to upslope clouds and snow showers. Winds will get gusty
again Thu and Fri as a secondary cold front moves across the
forecast area. NWly gusts Thu and Fri may reach 30 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Freezing spray and storm/gale headlines remain in
effect through this afternoon and evening. Conditions will
improve after 00Z, but SCA conditions will likely linger through
tonight over the outer waters...and possibly into Wednesday for
the outer waters between Port Clyde and Stonington.

Long Term...SCA conditions likely most of mid to late week,
mainly on the outer waters where westerly flow gusts 25 to 30
kt.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...High Wind Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ007>009-
     012-013.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ014-018>028-
     033.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     MEZ007>009.
NH...High Wind Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NHZ004-006.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NHZ001>003-005-
     007>015.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NHZ001-
     002.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ150>153.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ153.
     Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ150>152-154.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ154.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Casey/Watson
SHORT TERM...Watson
LONG TERM...Ekster