Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 230223 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1023 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks northeast through the Canadian Maritimes tonight. The area will remain cooler than normal through the weekend. A passing front Saturday night and Sunday will bring snow showers, and possibly light accumulations, to much of the area. To start next week high pressure noses in and will start to moderate temperatures to readings at or above normal for March. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 1015 PM...This update just brings POPs way down through tonight as precip looks to be over with a clear radar image. Temps falling rather slowly in many spots as some wind continues, but should see a period of rad cooling after midnight and temps may fall off more quickly then, especially given current Tds in the upper teens to mid 20s. I did hedge mins up by just a bit. 635 PM...Although a few flurries /or even sprinkles/ will be possible along the coast through about 8 or 9 pm, it will continue to dry out this evening. Models continue to show winds decoupling inland areas, and though they are diminishing now, they are far from light/variable in most places. How much will decoupling will affect lows, especially in the elevated valleys tonight, which could mean the difference between lows around 10 and lows around 20 in inland spots. For now played the middle of the road with the mins. Previously...Low pressure currently centered 41 N 65W, well east and south of the Gulf of Maine. North to northeasterly flow remains in place across the area. The remaining few snow showers affecting the midcoast through Penobscot bay will gradually come to an end this afternoon as the low continues to move east. Clearing skies are expected through the evening as even the cirrus from the storm moves to the east. Have dropped temperatures a bit across the northern mountain valleys where radiational cooling may be able to take hold overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Upper level low moves into place overhead through the day on Friday. Expect increasing clouds and snow showers in the north country as the upslope flow develops. Towards Friday afternoon an upper level disturbance will help to touch off some snow showers or squalls. The greatest instability is to the west of our region but a few squalls may make it into the Connecticut River valley tomorrow afternoon. With mainly sunny skies across the coastal plain, temperatures will be able to climb into the mid 40s across most of the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... There are a couple of wx highlights in the extended...and were the focus of this forecast. The first is Sat night/Sun when a S/WV trof will pinwheel around the larger upper low and cross the region. A saturated snow growth zone and at least some weak lift is likely as it passes. With a pocket of colder temps aloft...we may even be able to generate some instability to help accelerate vertical motion. I am expecting snow shower activity could be pretty widespread along the trof...with light accumulations possible. Trying to pin down the axis of the surface trof at this range is I preferred PoP values in the high chance/low likely range. As we turn towards next week...model guidance is forecast low pressure to cut off in the Wrn Atlantic...with ridging rolling over the top of it. That would place the forecast area in a favorable zone for dry and warm wx. Ensemble guidance is already showing some larger standardized anomalies for this range as the ridge builds in. I blended in a little more MOS guidance to the middle of next week to account for the warmer look. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term... A few MVFR ceilings hanging on along with the snow showers along the coast should move out in the next few hours with VFR expected through Friday morning. Long Term...A passing trof Sat night into Sun may bring widespread SHSN to the area. Areas of IFR/LIFR conditions are possible at all terminals. SHSN will taper off Sun afternoon...with VFR conditions taking over thru midweek. && .MARINE... Short Term...Have dropped the Gales in favor of SCA as the coastal storm continues to pull out of our region. Long Term...Off shore flow will continue behind low pressure. SCA conditions will prevail...and on Sun behind passing trof a few gale force gusts are possible. SCA conditions linger into early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor splashover possible in the next hour around the time of high tide. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150>152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa/Curtis SHORT TERM...Curtis LONG TERM...Curtis/Legro AVIATION...Curtis/Legro MARINE...Curtis/Legro TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.