Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 081425 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1025 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Persistent upper-level low will keep conditions cool with chances of showers through Saturday along with a few thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. The low will finally begin to get nudged out by a ridge Sunday and Monday, allowing for mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Another low pressure and cold front will increase rain chances again Monday night through Wednesday of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1025 AM Update...Have made some tweaks to PoPs and T/Tds based on observations and incoming near term guidance. This did not result in any significant changes to the going forecast for today. 725 AM...Adjusted POPs to cover the band of showers across N NH and central ME this morning, which seems to correlate with some convergence close to the center of the stacked low. Models suggesting this spreads out thru the morning as showers rotate around this center through today. Previously...The 500 MB closed low continues to sit over N New England and surround areas of Canada /and will do so through Friday/. It will gradually fill starting today, and the trend will be for more diurnal influences to produce showers, so expect the threat of showers to ramp up later this morning and through the afternoon. The showers will be more cellular and convective today, but thunder is unlikely. Best chance for shower swill be in the mtns down to the Capital region of ME. But, they are possible anywhere this afternoon. Given the stacked low over the CWA, flow will be light today, and mixing will be limited but expecting highs similar to the last few days, with highs 55-60 in the mtns to the low to mid 60s in the S. Once again, expect best chc of any sun in the morning and late in the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The threat of showers decreases this evening and overnight mostly due to loss of heating. Still could see a few around overnight, especially in the mtns. Mostly cloudy conditions persist, but winds should be very light, so some rad cooling is possible, and low range from the mid 40s to around 50. Given the light winds, will likely see patchy fog tonight, especially in areas where it rains this afternoon. Friday looks similar to Thursday, although showers look more convective and cellular as stagnant flow allows for better low level moisture beneath cold pool aloft, so TSRA is possible, especially over NH. There may be a little more sun as well /but still mostly cloudy/. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than Thursday, mainly inland areas, as onshore flow will keep the coast from rising as much and highs will run 60-65 or so. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Can`t rule out a few showers Friday night with 500-mb low still on top of us, but for the most part shower activity is expected to dwindle through Friday evening with the loss of daytime heating/instability. Given the high shower coverage we`re forecasting on Friday, I think there is pretty good potential for low stratus, fog, and or/drizzle Friday night into early Saturday with light winds and sufficient low-level moisture. This is supported well with SREF probabilities, and some of the fog could be locally dense. The upper low will start to open into a wave as it finally begins to move slowly to the east on Saturday. However, plenty of remaining PVA aloft and moisture will support another round of scattered to numerous showers during the daytime hours. Forecast soundings do show steepening lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg of CAPE, which also supports a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. There could be some gusty winds with the steep low-level lapse rates, but the overall potential for strong storms looks low with little to no shear to work with. Convective coverage will diminish Saturday evening with the loss of heating once again, but we could see patchy fog again Saturday night, especially for those that see rain on Saturday as winds will again be light. Temperatures warm up for Sunday and Monday with upper-ridging briefly building into the region, giving high temperatures mostly in the 70s. This will also provide mostly dry conditions, but a couple of showers may occur on Sunday and generally confined to the upslope regions. After that, we`ll lose the ridge as another upper low moves slowly across the Great Lakes sending a round of precipitation and a cold front our way. This is still toward the end of the forecast period, but the global models have started to agree on a slower eastward progression with this system, resulting in a lowering of PoPs for Monday and an increase PoPs for Monday night and Tuesday. An additional round of showers is possible Wednesday as the upper low moves across the region. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...Tricky day today, as will likely see variable cigs from VFR-MVFR at times at all but KMHT/KCON. Scattered showers could reduce vis as well. Will have to watch for low stratus developing tonight, especially at coastal terminals and KAUG, which brings a chance for IFR overnight into Friday. Friday will likely be similar to Thursday, with showers and variable cigs between MVFR and VFR. Long Term...The potential for low ceilings and/or fog and drizzle has increased during the Friday night into early Saturday morning timeframe, which could produce IFR to even LIFR restrictions. After that, most should return to MVFR or VFR by late Saturday morning, but showers and possibly a couple of thunderstorms could bring back some restrictions during the day on Saturday. High pressure will bring mainly VFR Saturday night through Monday before an area of low pressure increases chances for precipitation and flight restrictions Monday night through Wednesday of next week. && .MARINE... Short Term...Low pressure from the surface stacked through the atmosphere will keep winds light and seas low, well below SCA through Friday. Long Term...Light flow will keep conditions below SCA levels this weekend and into Monday. After that, southerly flow will increase Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a low pressure and cold front, possibly resulting in SCA conditions over portions of the waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schroeter NEAR TERM...Cempa SHORT TERM...Cempa LONG TERM...Combs is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.