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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 240716
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
316 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will head out to sea south of Nova Scotia today as
high pressure builds in from the west. The result will be a
windy day today. High pressure moves across the region on
Saturday with warmer temperatures moving back in. Showers
arrives Saturday night and Sunday. Monday will clear out again
with temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
Strengthening low pressure will move southeastward through the
Gulf of Maine this morning. Steady showers will end early on
this morning across the northern and eastern zones, but clouds
will hang on much of the day across the forecast area as upper
level low pressure moves overhead. There may even be some light
showers or sprinkles from time to time today, especially in the
mountains. The main story today will be gusty northerly winds,
gusting up to 40 MPH at times as the pressure gradient tightens
this morning into the early afternoon hours as a result of the
departing low and the building high from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will settle in from the west tonight and result
in rapidly diminishing winds this evening. Skies will clear and
will result in a good setup for radiational cooling.
Temperatures will bottom out in the upper 30s to mid 40s at most
locations. With wet ground in place, patchy dense fog is
likely.

The next short wave trough and attendant surface warm front will
quickly approach from the west on Saturday. The morning will
feature plenty of sunshine, but rain will quickly move in from
west to east, starting in the mid afternoon hours in the western
zones, and likely reaching the coast by early to mid evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridge of high pressure over the southeastern US will remain in
place this weekend and next week while an upper trough sits and
spins over Hudson Bay. In between we will find ourselves within
the storm track of the Westerlies. Plenty of Gulf of Mexico
moisture streaming northward into the Westerlies will slosh in
and out of our area with each passing wave.

Expect warm advection showers Saturday night as warm, moist air
is pulled northward ahead of a low pressure system tracking into
Canada. Most of the energy with this wave tracks well north of
our area, but a small piece of it slides eastward across the top
of the Southeast US ridge enhancing the rain chances. A warm and
humid air mass will be left in its wake for Sunday, with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon as a cold
front arrives from the west. Canadian high pressure builds
eastward into Quebec on Monday with dry conditions expected in
our area and temperatures warming mostly into the 70s.

The next wave emerges out of the Great Plains on Monday and into
our area on Tuesday. Although it will be losing its potency as
it arrives, we will still likely see showers much of the day on
Tuesday with the humid air again trying to build back to the
north.

A more potent trough moves through the Great Lakes and into
Canada on Wednesday with the warm front possibly getting hung up
across our area during the day on Wednesday. South of the warm
front it will warm into the 80s with humid conditions, but to
the north 60s may be all that we can muster with more cloud
cover and lingering rain chances. The upper trough swings
through the region Wednesday night and Thursday with showers and
thunderstorms possible in the warm, humid air mass ahead of the
front.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Mostly cloudy skies will be the rule today on
average, with ceilings ranging from 2500-4500 ft. Gusty
northerly winds will also be present with surface wind gusts
around 30 knots. Skies will clear and winds will rapidly
diminish early this evening as high pressure moves in. Dense
valley fog is possible overnight. VFR conditions are expected
on Saturday, but MVFR conditions in rain will likely develop
late afternoon, especially across NH.

Long Term...Expect showers Saturday night with widespread MVFR
to IFR conditions. This will improve on Sunday, but another
round of showers and thunderstorms is possible ahead of a cold
front arriving from the northwest. Should see widespread VFR
conditions Monday but MVFR showers return Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA in effect for all waters today until early
evening as northerly winds gust up to 30 kt. Winds rapidly
diminish this evening with sub-SCA conditions expected tonight
through Saturday.

Long Term...Southwest flow over the waters Saturday night and
Sunday shifts to the northwest behind the cold front Sunday
night. High pressure moves east across Quebec on Monday with
winds turning southeasterly by Tuesday as another weak wave
pulls a warm front northward.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ151-153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Kimble