Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 240716 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 316 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will head out to sea south of Nova Scotia today as high pressure builds in from the west. The result will be a windy day today. High pressure moves across the region on Saturday with warmer temperatures moving back in. Showers arrives Saturday night and Sunday. Monday will clear out again with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... Strengthening low pressure will move southeastward through the Gulf of Maine this morning. Steady showers will end early on this morning across the northern and eastern zones, but clouds will hang on much of the day across the forecast area as upper level low pressure moves overhead. There may even be some light showers or sprinkles from time to time today, especially in the mountains. The main story today will be gusty northerly winds, gusting up to 40 MPH at times as the pressure gradient tightens this morning into the early afternoon hours as a result of the departing low and the building high from the west. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will settle in from the west tonight and result in rapidly diminishing winds this evening. Skies will clear and will result in a good setup for radiational cooling. Temperatures will bottom out in the upper 30s to mid 40s at most locations. With wet ground in place, patchy dense fog is likely. The next short wave trough and attendant surface warm front will quickly approach from the west on Saturday. The morning will feature plenty of sunshine, but rain will quickly move in from west to east, starting in the mid afternoon hours in the western zones, and likely reaching the coast by early to mid evening. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridge of high pressure over the southeastern US will remain in place this weekend and next week while an upper trough sits and spins over Hudson Bay. In between we will find ourselves within the storm track of the Westerlies. Plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture streaming northward into the Westerlies will slosh in and out of our area with each passing wave. Expect warm advection showers Saturday night as warm, moist air is pulled northward ahead of a low pressure system tracking into Canada. Most of the energy with this wave tracks well north of our area, but a small piece of it slides eastward across the top of the Southeast US ridge enhancing the rain chances. A warm and humid air mass will be left in its wake for Sunday, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon as a cold front arrives from the west. Canadian high pressure builds eastward into Quebec on Monday with dry conditions expected in our area and temperatures warming mostly into the 70s. The next wave emerges out of the Great Plains on Monday and into our area on Tuesday. Although it will be losing its potency as it arrives, we will still likely see showers much of the day on Tuesday with the humid air again trying to build back to the north. A more potent trough moves through the Great Lakes and into Canada on Wednesday with the warm front possibly getting hung up across our area during the day on Wednesday. South of the warm front it will warm into the 80s with humid conditions, but to the north 60s may be all that we can muster with more cloud cover and lingering rain chances. The upper trough swings through the region Wednesday night and Thursday with showers and thunderstorms possible in the warm, humid air mass ahead of the front. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...Mostly cloudy skies will be the rule today on average, with ceilings ranging from 2500-4500 ft. Gusty northerly winds will also be present with surface wind gusts around 30 knots. Skies will clear and winds will rapidly diminish early this evening as high pressure moves in. Dense valley fog is possible overnight. VFR conditions are expected on Saturday, but MVFR conditions in rain will likely develop late afternoon, especially across NH. Long Term...Expect showers Saturday night with widespread MVFR to IFR conditions. This will improve on Sunday, but another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible ahead of a cold front arriving from the northwest. Should see widespread VFR conditions Monday but MVFR showers return Tuesday. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA in effect for all waters today until early evening as northerly winds gust up to 30 kt. Winds rapidly diminish this evening with sub-SCA conditions expected tonight through Saturday. Long Term...Southwest flow over the waters Saturday night and Sunday shifts to the northwest behind the cold front Sunday night. High pressure moves east across Quebec on Monday with winds turning southeasterly by Tuesday as another weak wave pulls a warm front northward. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151-153. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Ekster LONG TERM...Kimble

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