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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 080316
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1116 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass south and east of New England over the
weekend, but otherwise high pressure nearby will keep conditions
fairly quiet. Another area low pressure will pass to our south
on Monday with widespread rain chances. An upper level low
pressure system will pass over the region Tuesday with high
pressure building in its wake Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1115 PM Update...Just a few more tweaks to temperature and wind
for the evening and overnight according to latest clouds. Mid
and high clouds are streaming in from the south which should
stunt cooling to a degree for the southern half of the area.

710 PM Update...Added a chance for some sprinkles over the
Monadnock region for this evening with weak echos falling into a
moderately dry airmass below. Also adjusted temperatures
through the overnight period... the thing to watch for will be
how quickly clouds thicken as they overspread the area right
now. Already seeing scattered clouds at 7-8 kft which should
offset some of the radiational cooling, especially south and
east... so have raised lows by a touch for tonight.

450 PM Update...Made some changes to temperatures and skies
through the evening to better fit observed trends. We`ve reached
daytime maxes for the most part over the interior under
stratocu and cu... temperatures are gradually falling through
the 50s along the coast and inland by about a county thanks to
the sea breeze, but under clearing skies. Overall a pleasant
evening on tap.

Previously... High pressure is centered over Maine this
afternoon. Satellite imagery and surface observations both
support a very dry airmass in place across Maine with dewpoints
into the 20s. Further west, across New Hampshire some moisture
in the form of mid- level cumulus deck and surface dewpoints in
the 30s. Along the coast a robust seabreeze has developed and
pushed inland as far as Strafford and interior York county. The
seabreeze front is clearly visible with the suppression of the
cumulus field along the seacoast. Overnight temperatures will
drop rapidly after sunset. The current cloud field, indicative
of the moisture profiles, will be the dividing line for
temperatures as well with the western part of the area staying
slightly warmer. Across the midcoast with the clear skies and
very dry air, expect temps to drop to near freezing all the way
to the coast. The growing season has started for the coastal
zones and so have issued a Frost advisory for the midcoast, with
the more inland portions of the area (inland of Rt 1) most
likely to see frost. Cloud cover will move in later in the
evening, however don`t expect is soon enough to keep temps up
for the midcoast. Further south, for Portland and into NH expect
those clouds to largely prevent a frost and so have opted for
no advisory in these zones. That said, sheltered locations
particularly in eastern Cumberland county should be alert to the
possibility.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday will start off with some clouds across the western
Portion of the area. Expect a cumulus deck similar to today to
slide further east as the high moves towards the Maritimes. For
the afternoon some showers as possible across western NH as an
inverted trough extending from a coastal low passing to our
south tries to push additional moisture an instability into the
area. Have kept PoPs limited as this feature is largely to our
south. General pattern remains weak enough for another robust
seabreeze, this one extending up through the midcoast and
temperatures across the region will hold in the upper 50s under
partly cloudy skies. That cloud cover will translate to warmer
temperatures than tonight on Saturday keep the threat of frost
at bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period will start out with fair weather on Sunday
with temperatures rising well into the 60s. The only caveat will
be remaining moisture that may result in variably cloudy
conditions, especially in the mountains where even a couple of
showers will be possible. Overall, a nice day.

A short wave trough and attendant SFC low pressure center will
approach Sunday night with the low center passing just to the
south of the forecast area Monday morning. This will represent
the best chance for a widespread wetting rain during the
upcoming week. There are differences in the 12z guidance suite
today as to how far north the precipitation shield will reach.
Some members keep northern zones dry. However, the consensus is
that most zones get measurable rain, with the best chances (cat
PoPs) across southern NH and southern ME. At this time, timing
of steadiest precipitation is pretty well agreed upon by a good
portion of the 12z suite, which is Monday morning. A lessening
of PoPs is forecast for Monday afternoon.

Thereafter, upper level low pressure moves overhead for Tuesday
into Wednesday with continued cool and potentially showery
weather at times.

Warmer and dry weather expected Thursday with the likelihood of
short wave ridging moving overhead. Thereafter, rain chances
look to increase on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR day as high pressure builds overhead with Fair
weather cumulus across NH. Robust seabreeze has brought coastal
terminals to gust up to 15kts, but that will diminish after
sunset as winds calm. Similar pattern tomorrow with increasing
clouds to the west, but holding VFR and a seabreeze along the
coast.

Long Term...VFR conditions on Sunday. Widespread rain likely
later Sunday night and Monday with associated MVFR to IFR
restrictions. Conditions improve to VFR Tuesday night, although
occasional MVFR conditions may return on Wednesday, especially
in the mountains. SFC wind gusts 20 to 25 kt are expected on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...High pressure remains in control of the Gulf of
Maine with calm winds and seas holding through the first part of
the weekend.

Long Term...Relatively tranquil conditions expected Sunday and
Monday before seas increase, possibly to 5 feet Monday night.
Westerly winds may gust around 25 kt Tue and Wed in the
developing cold air advection regime.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ025>028.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Casey/Curtis
SHORT TERM...Curtis
LONG TERM...Ekster