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144
FXUS61 KGYX 230254
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1054 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A late season nor`easter be with us through at least Friday.
Rain is overspreading the area currently, and should continue
through the afternoon. Overnight, snow will begin to mix in
across the mountains. Winds become gusty along the coast this
evening, with northeast gusts up to 45 mph at times. The storm
looks to cut off and slowly drift across the region through
Saturday. This will allow for a showery weekend ahead. High
pressure will begin to build in Sunday, with warmer and brighter
conditions through at least the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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1045 PM Update...Heavier rain making headway into southeastern
NH at this time and should move generally northward on the
coastal plain tonight. However, rates will not likely be as
heavy as those over southern New England where thunderstorms
were involved. Forecast remains on track.

7 PM Update...Rain is continuing to progress northward and
northwestward at this time. Central and Midcoast ME and the
western ME mountains remain dry for the most part as dry air
remains entrenched. The dry air will eventually get eroded
overnight with rain falling there mainly after midnight. Winds
continue to be gusty, with wind advisories remaining up at the
coast. Little change to the going forecast this evening.

Previously...

A late season Nor`easter continues to track into the Gulf of
Maine tonight, spreading rain from south to north, bringing
gusty winds along the coast, and producing some high elevation
snow. The steadier rainfall is moving into southeast New
Hampshire this afternoon, and will continue to expand
northeastward through the evening. Breezy conditions have
already been felt along the coast today, but winds will continue
to pick up through the evening hours a the low deepens and
moves closer. Winds gust to around 40 to 45 mph through the
overnight. Some power outages are possible now that the leaves
are out on the trees. Breezy conditions can be expected inland
as well, but the strongest gusts remain confined to the coast.

Cold air aloft allows the higher elevations above 1500 feet to
see some snowfall tonight, with accumulations generally confined
to the higher peaks of the White Mountains.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The low continues to move through the Gulf of Maine on Friday.
The steady shield of rain becomes more periodic by the morning,
with bands of rain becoming more scattered through the day. The
rain also becomes more showery in nature as the upper level low
approaches from the west, and the surface low drifts into the
eastern Gulf of Maine.

The bulk of the rainfall will have fallen by tomorrow morning,
but with the showers through the remainder of the day amounts
generally end up around 1.0-1.5 inches south of the mountains,
and less than an inch north of the mountains. The highest
rainfall amounts are still expected through the Seacoast and
into southwest Maine where some of the heavier bands of rain
reach.

Showers become more widely scattered through the overnight
tomorrow night, but will linger into Saturday morning as the low
only slowly moves into the Canadian Maritimes. Temperatures
don`t fall much from Friday`s chilly highs, with lows generally
in the 30s across the north, and 40s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Long term update...Unsettled weather continues Sat into Sun but
improvement in generally foreseen Sunday afternoon and Monday
even though some showery weather will still be possible. The
midweek looks better with highs likely returning into the 70s
for most. 01z NBM has been blended into the going forecast and
results in little departure from these general ideas.

Overview:
Some wraparound showers possible on Saturday as a low moves
northeastward. A quick moving shortwave moves southeasterly over
the northeast, bringing a chance to see an isolated shower or
two over New Hampshire Sunday. Skies clear for the first half of
next week, though a diurnal shower or two can`t be ruled out
across western NH. Towards the end of the week, two upper-level
lows merge over New England. The upper-level lows could bring
more unsettled and cooler weather next weekend.

Details:
Low pressure retreats to the northeast through the day
Saturday. Continued overcast skies will keep high temperatures
cool, with 50s likely across NH and western ME. Wraparound
convective showers are likely as the environment shows a small
layer of low-level instability, with ~50J of CAPE up to about
800mb/7000ft. Light winds across the vertical profile should
make showers move southeasterly, and should continue through
Saturday evening. Light northwest flow should allow for cool
lows Saturday night, with lows in the 40s.

Skies start to clear out on Sunday, as high pressure moves in. The
clearing skies should also allow for a noticeably warmer day,
high temperatures make it into the low 60s for most. A weak
shortwave from the northwest will bring a chance to see an
isolated shower or two in the afternoon. Skies then continue to
clear out Sunday night. Calm winds and clear skies will allow
for radiational cooling, with lows again in the mid 40s.

Temperatures look to warm in the first-half of next week, with upper-
level ridging moving in from the west. A few diurnally-driven
showers remain possible in the afternoons, though Monday-Wednesday
should be dry and mostly clear for most. Generally looking at upper
60s and lower 70s, though Tuesday is forecast to be the warmest day
of the three, with low to mid-70s.

Towards the end of next week, two upper-level lows arrive in New
England. One comes from the west, with unsettled weather arriving on
Thursday. This low could merge with another upper-level low from the
north on Friday. The two upper-level lows over the area next
weekend may suggest that another wet and cool weekend is on tap.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Short Term...Conditions continue to lower to IFR through the
evening as rain overspreads the region. Gusty northeast winds of
around 25-35kt are expected along coastal terminals tonight.
Some improvement is likely through the day tomorrow, but IFR to
MVFR likely prevail most of the day with ongoing showers. These
conditions continue Friday night, with the showers becoming less
frequent overnight.


Long Term...
Ceilings and visibility likely improve during the day Saturday, as a
low moves out of the area. Mostly VFR is expected afterwards through
the first half of next week as high pressure moves in from the
west.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Northeasterly gales continue into Friday morning
as low pressure moves through the Gulf of Maine. The low only
slowly moves into the Canadian Maritimes by early Saturday, with
SCA conditions continuing after the gales through Friday night.

Long Term...
Seas of 2-5ft are expected Saturday, diminishing to 2-3ft by Sunday
morning. Northwest winds of 8-12kts are likely through the weekend,
diminishing through the day Sunday. Fair marine conditions are
expected through the first half of next week, as high pressure moves
in.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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However water levels approaching action stage and large near-
shore waves could lead to splash over at the more vulnerable
coastal locations Friday morning and possibly the evening with
the higher of the two daily high tides.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for MEZ023>028.
NH...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for NHZ014.
MARINE...Gale Warning until noon EDT Friday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Clair/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Palmer
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...