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432
FXUS61 KGYX 131405
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1005 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
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Loaded in the latest surface observations and smoothed trends
but otherwise just made some minor adjustments to winds and sky
cover.
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&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Humidity abates this weekend while temperatures run warm
with highs in the 80s to low 90s today and Sunday.

2. A cold front will cross the region Sunday and bring a possibility
for some strong thunderstorms.

3. Seasonable weather returns for much of the work week.

4. High astronomical tides into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

A much drier day in terms of dewpoints is expected today with
no precipitation forecasted. Highs will still be quite warm,
with max temps today well into the the 80s to near 90. Since
humidity levels will be much lower than yesterday, heat indices
should be lower than the actually temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Sun is still looking like the last of the truly hot days until at
least the end of the work week. NBM guidance has been relatively on
target for temps this week, and so I do not see much need to go
against it at this time. Seeing it with some low 90s and widespread
upper 80s, but mixing will tap some drier air aloft still and
dewpoints are not expected to be oppressive. Still could leave use
flirting with heat advisory criteria in some locations, and we will
have to monitor those trends.

Model guidance still hinting at a prefrontal trof setting up
locally, but the main cold frontal convection holding off until late
evening. That timing is certainly not ideal for severe weather, but
CAMs continue to show some isolated storm coverage across northern
zones and popping across western NH during the afternoon and early
evening. These will be the storms we have to watch closely, as there
will be enough low level instability and deep layer shear for storm
organization and strong/severe storms. CSU machine learning still
showing some severe weather probabilities for our forecast area,
mainly tied to wind. This includes both straight-line and tornado.
While I don`t think tornadoes will be the most likely hazard,
forecast soundings do show enough low level turning to produce some
favorable hodographs for tornadoes. So I am not ruling out the
threat completely. More likely the mid level dry air will be
available to help evaporatively cool downdrafts and lead to gusty
outflow. The forecast area has been placed in marginal/slight risk
areas for severe weather on the latest Day 3 outlook from SPC. So
will be continuing with the thunder mention, but hold off on
enhanced wording until it is clear there will be convection during
the daylight hours.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

Little change in model guidance for a return to seasonable
weather for much of the next week. Once the cold front clears
the coast, which may delay until Mon morning we should see
widespread high temps in the 75 to 85 degree range. Nighttime
lows will be a comfortable 50s to low 60s, though a couple
nights may sneak into the 40s for the northern valleys. Ahead of
the next trof late in the week temps will start to creep back
up along with humidity. This could bring back upper 80s to near
90 for parts of southern NH and coastal western Maine.
Especially towards the mid to latter half of the week diurnal
convection will become more likely, but certainly not organized.
That will have to wait until that trof Fri or Sat, when a large
upper low axis is forecast to cross the Northeast.
Showers/thunderstorms along that cold front should be fairly
numerous, and will represent our next chance for widespread
rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...

High astronomical tides combined with storm surge up to around
1/2 foot may bring total water levels to near minor flood stage
around the times of high tide this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z Sunday...Dense fog along the ME coast this morning
dissipates by 14z. VFR today with some west gusts to 15 kts. VFR
continues tonight and into Sunday morning. A drier airmass
should prevent overnight fog development tonight.

Outlook:

Sunday: VFR. Late afternoon/early evening showers or
thunderstorms possible for western NH terminals.

Sunday Night: Showers/storms continue local MVFR or lower
conditions, becoming VFR after midnight outside of the mountains.

Monday - Thursday: VFR conditions expected during the day. Some
local valley fog possible in the vicinity of LEB and HIE at night.

&&

.MARINE...
Some marginal SCA conditions are possible ahead of the cold
front Sun night into Mon morning. Otherwise winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA thresholds. Areas of fog and low
clouds are possible Sun into Sun night before cold front clears
out. While thunderstorms are possible Sun night over the coastal
waters, there does appear to be a diminishing threat for strong
to severe convection.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MEZ023>028.
NH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tubbs
AVIATION...Tubbs