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041
FXUS61 KGYX 030257
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1057 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Drier weather returns Friday into Saturday, however the pattern
remains unsettled and humid with increasing clouds and more
showers late in the weekend. The upcoming work week starts on a
drying, clearing, and warming trend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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1050 PM Update...Updated the forecast mainly for sky cover for
the next several hours as more clearing is taking place across
eastern and northern zones than previously forecast. In these
clear areas, fog is developing and could be locally dense
overnight.

650 PM Update...Showers continue to exit the forecast area as of
this time and will continue to do so over the next hour or two
allowing for mainly dry weather overnight. However, There will
likely be some fog and drizzle around. Little change to the
going forecast.

Previously...

Mesoscale models suggest low pressure will exit southeast through
southern New Hampshire late this afternoon and this evening. This
will allow for the precipitation to diminish and exit off the
coastline and into the Gulf of Maine. The latest HRRR suggests a
couple thunderstorms will be possible as well in a highly sheared
environment.

The large differences in temperatures from southwest to northeast
across the forecast area will continue early this evening prior to
all areas dropping into the 40s by late tonight. Areas of fog will
develop with the most fog in Maine.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
More low cloud cover and patchy fog will continue Friday morning
across the region, especially over eastern portions of the
forecast area. A large and persistent area of high pressure will
remain entrenched over eastern Canada allowing for the easterly
flow off the Gulf of Maine. It will continue to be cool with
highs in the 50s along the coast and lower 60s across the
interior.

Profiles suggest plenty of low level moisture will continue into
Friday night. Patchy fog will develop once again with
temperatures dropping into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overview: Mid-level ridging will build over the region Saturday
through Sunday but temperatures will remain on the cool side due
to high pressure located to our east, resulting in onshore
flow. Scattered showers will become increasingly likely by
Sunday afternoon through the night before a cold front crosses
on Monday. Behind this front, westerly winds will allow for
warmer temperatures through Tuesday. A passing weak wave of low
pressure will allow for an increased chance for showers towards
the middle to end of next week.

Impacts: No major weather related impacts expected.

Forecast Details: Mid-level ridging and positive h5 height anomalies
will persist Saturday through Sunday. Despite this, surface high
pressure to our east and associated clockwise flow will result
in onshore winds and a continuation of cool and at times damp
conditions. Saturday should remain dry through the daytime hours
but remain mostly cloudy with highs ranging from the 50s to
middle 60s (coolest along the coast and warmest towards the CT
River Valley). Shower chances will then increase on Saturday
night through much of Sunday night as a warm front lifts
northward. Lows will be primarily into the 40s with highs on
Sunday into the 50s.

A cold front will then cross on Monday, bringing an end to the cool
and cloudy conditions. Cloudy skies during the morning will become
partly cloudy by the afternoon with a drying westerly wind. The
additional sunshine will likely allow highs to reach the 60s to
middle 70s in most locations. Warm and partly cloudy skies look
to continue on Tuesday with highs potentially a few degrees
warmer. Shower chances and cooler temperatures then look like
they may make a return towards the middle to end of next week as
a weak wave of low pressure crosses either over or near New
England.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Areas of IFR and LIFR conditions expected tonight in
fog and lowered ceilings. Conditions slowly improve with fog
gradually lifting on Friday but remain with IFR conditions at most
sites in low ceilings. IFR conditions will persist through Friday
night with some LIFR locations in fog as well.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are likely Saturday through
Sunday morning, although onshore flow may result in some lower
ceilings across coastal TAF sites. Scattered -SHRA along with
lower ceilings may result in additional restrictions areawide
late Sunday through Sunday night before improving back to VFR on
Monday morning as southerly winds become westerly behind a cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A light northeast flow will continue over the area as a
large ridge of high pressure remains over eastern Canada tonight
through Friday night. A light southerly flow may develop during the
afternoon hours on Friday.

Long Term...Southerly winds will become westerly behind a cold
front on Monday but likely remain below 25 kts. Seas will be
between 1-3 ft, highest outside of the bays.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Tubbs
AVIATION...
MARINE...