Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 212309 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 709 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and sunny weather will arrive for the latter half of the weekend along with the start of a gradual warming trend. By mid week, unsettled weather returns with the approach of our next storm system. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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7pm update... only minor adjustments as winds begin to diminish and skies clear into the evening as high pressure approaches. A nice Spring day is in progress with much of southern and central NH along with portions of SW Maine under mostly sunny skies. To the north and east, cyclonic flow had more of an influence with thickening cumulus clouds as well as stratocumulus towards the Carrabassett Valley and the Mid Coast of Maine. Gusty NW winds have made the day a little more chilly, with gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range. The surface pressure gradient will be relaxing, and this will allow winds to decrease overnight. Overnight lows will drop in low moisture content air, bottoming out to near current afternoon dew points (20s). Expecting some patchy frost across the region once winds die down. Since the growing season has not technically started, will not be outlooking it at this time.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sunny skies and lighter winds will dominate the weather pattern Sunday. Heights will increase with ridging both at the surface and aloft moving in from the west. Temperatures will respond and be slightly warmer than today...with mid 40s north to mid to upper 50s south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will be in control of the sensible weather through Tuesday. Warm weather will also be the rule Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 50s and 60s. By Wednesday our weather changes for the worse as models agree on moving a surface low from the Gulf States northeast along the east coast to a position in the Gulf of Maine by Thursday morning. This low will have a tropical connection but models are indicating that the heaviest precipitation will move east of the forecast area and out to sea. This will likely be a colder rain with some snow possible in the highest elevations of northern New Hampshire and northwest Maine. With the warm weather melting the mountain snow Monday and Tuesday and the expected rainfall Wednesday and Thursday we will see a gradual rise on rivers through the week. Ensemble river guidance shows just a few river location possibly making it to flood stage. This in the end will depend on exactly how much rain we get. The models are indicating that another surface low will move into New England late Saturday. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Short Term...VFR conditions prevailing throughout the period. NW winds will diminish this evening and increase once again on Sunday...although they won`t be as strong. Long Term...VFR expected Monday and Tuesday. MVFR condition will will move in late Tuesday night in southern locations and spread north. IFR is expected in rain and fog at all location by Wednesday afternoon. IFR will likely continue into Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... Short Term...Quiet on the waters with low seas and winds weakening due to a slackening pressure gradient. Long Term...Quiet on the waters Monday. Winds will increase from the southwest Tuesday and high pressure slides off the coast. Winds may approach SCA criteria Tuesday afternoon. An increasing east to southeast flow will likely see winds and seas reach SCA criteria Wednesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Curtis SHORT TERM...Hanes LONG TERM...Hawley AVIATION... MARINE...

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