Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 270026 AAB AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 826 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move south of the forecast area tonight. Cool high pressure will build in from the northeast on Sunday and will hold over the region into Monday with plenty of clouds expected. High pressure will shift east late Monday and Monday night as a weak warm front approaches from the west. A cold front will drop south through the region by Tuesday morning. High pressure will build over the region Tuesday and will push offshore south of New England Wednesday. Low pressure may bring appreciable rainfall to the region Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 825 Update...So minor changes to the forecast to indicate that showers will occur and may impact your way home. Rain will occur but wont be a nuisance. 720 PM Update...Minor changes at this time. Convection is struggling over southern NH and SW Maine. Some pockets of better instability have helped better cells for a few scans...but overall these have weakened with time. Will continue to monitor. Previous discussion...Slow moving backdoor front continues to shift southwest early this afternoon with most of the associated shower activity still running from northern New Hampshire through southwest Maine. To the south...filtered sun through high clouds has boosted temps in the mid to upper 80s across southern New Hampshire. This will be the area of concern through early evening as the front continues to shift south into this unstable air mass. SPC has upgraded this area to a marginal risk for severe and radar showing convection beginning to fire over eastern New York and central Vermont. HRRR showing this activity becoming more organized as it moves into southern New Hampshire later this afternoon and evening. SPC meso analysis page showing CAPES edging into the 500 to 1000 range with moderate shear. Have included heavy rain and gusty winds in the zones for these areas but will hold off on enhanced wording to see how the situation develops. In any case...HRRR showing this activity pushing south of the forecast area around 00Z with just light scattered showers in its wake. Onshore flow sets up behind the front by late this evening and expect ocean stratus to overspread much of southern New Hampshire and extreme southwest Maine by midnight or shortly after. Lows overnight will range through the 40s in northeast zones and lower to mid 50s in the southwest. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build in from the northeast on Sunday increasing moist onshore gradient and keeping much of southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine socked in with stratus. Farther to the north and east looking for filtered sun through high clouds. Looking for highs in the north and east to top out in the lower to mid 60s. Coastal and southwest zones will only see highs in the 50s. High pressure will shift off to the east Sunday night allowing low level moisture to overspread much of the forecast area overnight. Looking for areas of fog and drizzle in southern zones with the remainder of the forecast area remaining dry. Lows will generally range through the 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pres centered over the maritimes will continue to provide a cool, moist onshore flow into Mon, especially on the coast. Far interior locations such as southwestern NH will see warming conditions as the cool low level air mass begins to depart. A cold front will cross the region Monday night into early Tuesday with the chance of showers, mainly across northern and central zones. High pressure then builds in later Tuesday through Thursday with warming temperatures expected. Not out of the question that a few locations hit 90 on Thursday. Thereafter, some beneficial rainfall is possible Friday into the weekend if the remnants of Alberto do indeed make their way to the northeastern states as several deterministic models are showing. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...VFR with areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings developing in southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine. This cloud cover with persist through Sunday. IFR/LIFR ceilings overspread most of the forecast area Sunday night. Long Term...VFR to IFR conditions are likely on Monday, mainly on the coastal plain where cool, moist onshore flow will persist. Improving conditions are expected Tuesday morning through Thursday where are return to VFR is expected. && .MARINE... Short Term...Have issued SCA`s for late tonight through midday Sunday as easterly gradient tightens over the Gulf of Maine later tonight. Long Term...SCA due to seas over the outer waters possible Monday, but at this time it looks marginal. && .FIRE WEATHER... Wind switches onshore this evening and overnight and remains that way into Monday, so expect high RH through Monday, with scattered showers and relatively light winds. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Hanes SHORT TERM...Sinsabaugh LONG TERM...Ekster AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER...

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