Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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751 FXUS61 KGYX 221126 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 726 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track east of the Gulf of Maine today, before moving through the Canadian Maritimes tonight. An upper level trough of low pressure will cross over northern New England on Friday and early Saturday. Yet another upper level trough will cross the region late Saturday and Saturday night. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and Monday and will hold over the area on Tuesday. A warm front will approach the region from the west Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Update... Have issued SPSs for the morning commute for the coastline and portions of southern New Hampshire. Expect the snow to continue through the mid morning hours with 1 to 3 inch accumulations. The snow will then begin to diminish during the late morning hours. The snow may hold on an hour or two longer in the Penobscot bay region. Prev Disc... Have updated the forecast based on current conditions and latest Radar imagery. A band of snow moved onshore from the Gulf of Maine during the early morning hours. However, dry air in place has diminished this feature. New bands of snow continue to rotate around the periphery of our offshore system, so we expect some snow to survive the trip to the coastline. Will leave 1 to 3 inches of snow in the forecast, but drop the remaining winter weather advisories for the coast of Maine. Otherwise, some tweaks were made for pops today. Prev Disc... Plenty of dry air remains in placed over Maine and New Hampshire, especially over the interior. Dew point depressions are also inhibiting the potential for snow across much of the region. Having said that, a band of snow has moved onshore during the early morning hours with visibilities as low as one mile reported within it. Will monitor this band as it continues to move gradually to the northwest. Most large scale operational models suggest very little in the way of precipitation this morning. However, will continue to monitor this mesoscale band and will hold onto the winter weather advisories for a few more hours along the coast. Will drop the advisories over much, if not all of New Hampshire. This band may deposit some light snow over the interior as well. Either way, the snow should rapidly melt today with forecast high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s over southern areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Cyclonic flow aloft and northwesterly low level winds will allow for some upslope conditions in the mountains tonight and Friday. Therefore, expect some scattered snow showers across the higher terrain. More melting will occur during the day Friday despite temperatures below normal for this time of the year. Expect reading to reach 40 degrees in southern and central areas. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models in fairly good agreement for the end of the week and the first half of the weekend as an upper trough remains parked over the area, Looking for variable clouds Friday night with just a slight chance of snow showers in the mountains. Lows will range through the 20s. Any morning sunny breaks Saturday will quickly give way to mostly cloudy skies as low level moisture and surface trough rotates in from the northeast, Will see snow showers during the afternoon in eastern zones. Highs Saturday will range through the 30s to near 40. Trough will work its way toward the southwest Saturday evening pushing the chance of snow showers into southwest zones before ending after midnight. May see some light accumulations during the late afternoon and evening but should only amount to an inch or less in most areas. Lows Saturday night will range from the mid teens north to the mid 20s south. Clouds will gradually diminish from north to south during the day on Sunday as high pressure builds in from the north. Highs will top out below normal ranging from the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south. Any lingering clouds will gradually clear Sunday evening as high pressure continues to build in from the north. Clearing skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling with lws ranging through the teens north and lower to mid 20s south. Sprawling high pressure will park over the region on Monday and will hold through Tuesday bringing moderating temps and abundant sunshine. Highs on Monday will range through the 30s toi near 40 and generally range through the 40s on Tuesday. Mid level shortwave will approach from the west Tuesday night bringing increasing clouds and the chance for a little light mixed precip after midnight. Associated surface low will gradually fill over southern Quebec on Wednesday and will drive a weak cold front through the region Wednesday evening. Will likely include some chance pops for showers during the day but expect these to be light and spotty. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...Areas of LIFR and IFR conditions this morning over southern areas in snow. VFR conditions further to the north. Conditions improving during the late morning and midday hours. VFR conditions expected tonight and Friday. Long Term... VFR with areas of MVFR ceilings Friday night. MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsby developing Saturday into Saturday night. Becoming VFR on Sunday. VFR Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds will continue to gust into gale force today. The gradient relaxes tonight with SCA conditions and large swells continuing. Long Term... SCA`s likely Friday night through Sunday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... NWS, USGS and GMRI wave runup output continues to indicate some minor impact with high tide this afternoon. Expect some minor splash-over and/or beach erosion in York and Rockingham counties for this afternoon`s tide. We may be issuing a statement to cover this very minor event. Wave periods will increase today, allowing for wave action to ride up the beach and to the dune systems. A storm may form well off the coast out in the Atlantic early next week, before retrograding well off the southern New England and Mid Atlantic coastlines. This may allow for building, long period swells to reach the Maine and New Hampshire coastline during the early to mid week period next week, potentially leading to some beach erosion splash-over. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ150>154. && $$ JC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.