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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 011318
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
918 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring cool and mostly dry weather today. A
weak upper level disturbance will bring the chance for showers
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some warmer air spills into the
area for the last half of the week, but another cold front this
weekend brings a return to cooler weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
917 AM Update...
Minor update to match latest observational trends in
temperatures and sky conditions.

615 AM Update...
Freeze and frost headlines have been dropped as temperatures
come up this morning in strong June sunlight. Temperatures
should warm quickly in the dry airmass evident on last night`s
KGYX sounding. Made minor changes to the forecast package at
this time.


Previous discussion...
In the near term, a deep trough will move east of northern New
England, putting the region in SE flow aloft. This will afford
short wave energy to dive SE through the area. A couple
different ribbons of energy will bring chances of rain to the
area through Tuesday. At the surface, weak boundaries will be
manufactured at best.

This morning, low RH and calm winds have allowed for freezing or
near-freezing readings across northern and central areas of NH and
ME. This morning after the freeze or frost advisories expire, the
drier airmass will support a quick warm-up into the mid 50s north to
mid 60s south. This is a few to several degrees lower than normal
for this time of year. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy today
with light to slightly gusty NW winds. There may be a few showers
across the area resulting in minimal QPF amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight, another night of calm winds and low dewpoints may
result in readings around the mid 30s north to the lower to mid
40s south. On Tuesday, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer
than today, with highs in the mid 60s north to upper 60s/lower
70s south. Skies will gradually become cloudier as the day goes
on with a short wave trough and increasing PWATs. Precipitation
will be scattered ahead of a warm front, but again not expecting
much QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
June started out on a frosty note this morning as we sit beneath
a cold upper trough with air flowing straight out of the Arctic.
This trough moves east with time where it sharpens into a full
fledged low which loops back in through the Maritimes and into
northeast Canada. Meanwhile out west our next warm bubble is
brewing in the desert Southwest where an upper ridge is
building, with this warm air gaining moisture over the Great
Plains as it heads northward. Eventually some of this warmth and
moisture spills around the top of the ridge and into our area
from the west later in the week. However, that pesky low over
eastern Canada will actually retrograde far enough west to
dislodge another shot of cooler air out of the Arctic for this
weekend, though not as cold as the current one!

We begin the Long Term forecast period with Tuesday night when a
series of two shortwave troughs pass through the region in a
little more than 24 hours. The first is currently a rather sharp
trough over Alberta and will round the very top of the ridge
with its remnants passing through our area Tuesday night. This
will bring a chance of showers, but probably not a widespread or
significant rainfall. Being on the downstream side of the ridge
it`s a bit unclear where exactly any of the remnant showers will
track, however there seems to be some consensus that the
southwestern part of our area will be favored. The next wave is
quick on its heals for Wednesday, this time tracking a bit
further south around the top of the ridge and able to bring with
it some of that warmth and moisture. It seems like shower
activity starts back up again late in the day Wednesday, with
the best chance of showers tracking across southern New
Hampshire. Some more substantial rainfall is possible with this
since it has a better moisture connection, however, there`s
still a good deal of uncertainty on the location of where the
axis of rainfall will be. Some models keep this south of our
area.

By Thursday morning any lingering showers will have departed to
the east leaving a dry day with warmer temperatures. We will be
in a roughly zonal flow aloft to the south of the upper low in
northeast Canada and downstream of the southwestern US ridge.
Expect temperatures about 5 or 10 degrees above normal Thursday
and Friday.

The next wave tracks across the top of the ridge through southern
Canada and moves quickly through the zonal flow into New England
on Friday. It will drag a cold front along with it. There will
be another chance of rain with the frontal passage, and we
cannot rule out some thunderstorms as well depending on how all
the ingredients of moisture, lift, and instability line up in
time and space. At this time it seems the best chance of
thunderstorms will be further north in the Saint Lawrence Valley
of Quebec on Friday, with some of these drifting into our area
during the evening. The front drops south through New England
and delivers cool and dry air for the last half of the weekend
and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...A nice aviation flying day today with ceilings
staying well above MVFR in any stray light rain shower that
could pass through the area. No significant impacts to aviation
operations through tonight.

Long Term...Could see some MVFR showers Tuesday night and again
Wednesday evening as two waves of energy track quickly across
the area. VFR conditions are expected for all on Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...High pressure in control over the coastal waters
today with winds shifting to the SW and remaining well below
SCA conditions.

Long Term...Southwest flow continues through Wednesday when a
weak low pressure system drags a brief frontal boundary through.
The southwest flow quickly returns and remains rather light
through the end of the week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Hanes
LONG TERM...Kimble
AVIATION...
MARINE...