Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 201614 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1214 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front bisected the region this morning, bringing a period of rain. It will be followed by a cold front later this morning. High pressure will build in from the west Sunday night and will pass out to sea south of New England Monday. Weak low pressure will pass south of New England on Tuesday. A cold front will drop south through the region Wednesday. Weak low pressure tracks along the international border late Thursday into Friday. A frontal system tracks into the area for the weekend bringing widespread showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1210 PM...A quick update to fine tune the tining of the showers and the temps, based on current obs. Not much change to forecast for this afternoon though, and showers should be done by ~18Z. Also, limited thunder to just SE NH, and even there chc is slight, probably the best chc will be offshore. 10 AM...Based on latest obs/radar/meso models, looks like any showers associated with the front will move thru between now and about 2-3 pm. I added the slight chc for thunder, especially across SW ME and srn NH as there seems to be some decent moisture convergence developing in this area, which could help enhance the lift, and support some updraft development. Otherwise should see winds shift to the WNW behind the front this afternoon with some clearing during the mid-late afternoon. Highs should still make it into the low to mid 70s in many spots, but highs will be closer to 70 on the coast and in the mid to upper 60s in the mtns. 7AM UPDATE... Early morning temperatures have been on the increase as wind flow has shifted to the southwest and we have lost the influence of the cold Gulf of Maine. Showers have already begun moving through northern areas in scattered fashion. Expect a bit more coverage of this as the front arrives. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... Cold front will move through the region today, with a few widely scattered showers possible before it arrives, and a few more focused ones arriving with the front. There is an outside chance for a rumble of thunder, but this likelihood is too small to mention in the forecast, and no severe weather is expected. It will start off cloudy, but should see some clearing behind the front as dry air pours in. Temperatures warm into the 70s to even near 80 in southeast New Hampshire.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Dry air continues to pour in behind the cold front tonight with a clearing sky. Temperatures drop into the 40s for most areas, 30s for the colder northern valleys. Monday will be drier but still warm, even though we are behind the cold front. Good mixing on a northwest wind will bring winds of 10 to 20 mph and temperatures warming into the 70s again. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mostly zonal flow will dominate for Monday and Tuesday followed by a large scale trough dipping out of Canada for the midweek period. Increasing heights are expected for the end of the week. On Tuesday a warm front will lift NE into New England, followed by a cold front for Wednesday. A backdoor front settles in for the weekend. Temperatures during the week will range from the 70s and 80s for southern and central NH and the coastal plain of Maine to the 60s across the mountains for highs. Lows will range from the upper 30s far north to the 50s south and west, Precipitation increases Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday along the cold front. QPF will be scattered and light in nature. Mountain showers will be possible Thursday and Friday with enough short wave energy passing by to produce weak convection. The next good widespread rain event occurs over the weekend with the backdoor front and associated upper level energy. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Although conditions start the day IFR or LIFR for much of the coastal plain, we should see some improvement in the ceilings through the morning, generally to MVFR by noon. A cold front moves through this afternoon, bringing a shift to northwest winds and clearing. Clear conditions continue into Monday. Long Term... Tue - Thu...Variable MVFR in -SHRA, especially across the mountains, as a cold front crosses the region. VFR conditions developing late Wednesday into Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Small Craft Advisory continues for winds and seas today into this evening. Should see winds diminish today as the front moves through, and seas subsiding by evening. Long Term...A brief increase in winds is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a frontal system passes through the region. Again, winds should stay below SCA criteria. On Thursday winds and seas will possibly reach SCA criteria. && .FIRE WEATHER... After starting the day moist with clouds and showers, a cold front will begin ushering in drier air this afternoon. Dry air will be in place on Monday with a northwest wind of 10 to 20 mph. It is possible that we could approach borderline Red Flag Warning criteria, though confidence is not great and recent rains might diminish this threat. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa/Kimble SHORT TERM...Kimble LONG TERM...Hanes AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER...

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