Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 170405 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1205 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold weather will continue to be the rule tonight through the weekend. A cold front will pass across the region Saturday along with some snow showers and possibly a few squalls. A very cold night is on tap for Saturday night in the wake of the front. Low pressure is expected to pass to the south midweek but the track is very uncertain at this time. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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MIDNIGHT...Just a few quick adjustments to winds/temps based on current obs, but minor changes for the overall forecast. Did note the PK WIND at KPWM of 37 kts at 0344Z, although think we are seeing the core of strongest winds move offshore, although gusts to 20-25 kts will persist for a few more hours tonight, before upper level flow begins to back a little. 1015PM UPDATE... Will update the forecast again based on latest temperature observations. Temperatures have continued to fall off this evening, though not precipitously (speaking of precipitous, some light snow showers continue in the mountains). 730PM UPDATE... Temperatures falling just a bit quicker than forecast, so adjusted the hourly temperature trends, but for the most part stuck with overnight low forecasts. Funny that cold advection is ongoing ahead of the cold front that arrives tomorrow morning! Snow showers are still occurring in some areas, but coverage is very sparse and with drier air moving in it should get even sparser. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... Cold and breezy conditions are expected to continue tonight with gusts leveling off this evening. Upslope clouds and snow are expected to continue in the White Mountains overnight with several inches of snow expected in favored locations such as northern Coos County. Elsewhere it should remain dry.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will approach from the northwest early on Saturday and is expected to sweep across the region through midday. The BTV snow squall parameter is favorable for snow squalls during the morning hours especially over NH. Have increased PoPs to chance to cover for this possibility. A few squalls may be locally heavy and could bring a quick coating of snow to roads which could pose a travel hazard for a time. Winds could gust up to 40 mph in the heavier squalls - with gusts around 25-30 mph likely outside of them. Otherwise, a cold afternoon is expected with temperatures steady or falling. Winds will decrease by later Saturday night as a late season Arctic air mass settles in. Cold lows are expected for this time of year - with lows generally between 5 below and 5 above zero. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cold front will stall over southern New England on Sunday as high pressure builds in from the northwest. After a mostly sunny start expect variable clouds in the afternoon. Temperatures will average out well below normal for the day only reaching the mid teens to lower 20s north and mid 20s to near 30 south. High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest Sunday night and Monday. Looking for clearing skies and some very chilly overnight lows Sunday night. Lows will dip into the single numbers north and lower to mid teens in the south. Monday will feature mostly sunny skies but despite the sun temperatures will remain below normal. Highs will range through the 20s north and lower to mid 30s south. Another clear and cold night on tap Monday night as high pressure continues to nose in from the northwest. Lows will range from 5 to 10 degrees north and will range through the teens south. Models still coming into line on low pressure moving east out of the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Differences remain on track and intensity with the new GFS still slightly north of the ECMWF. In any case should see one more nice day Tuesday as high pressure remains parked to the northwest of the area. After a mostly sunny morning will likely see increasing high clouds in the afternoon. Expect temps to moderate somewhat with highs ranging through the 30s. With the afore mentioned model diffs forecast confidence heads south for Tuesday night and beyond. May see some light snow pushing into southern zones by daybreak Wednesday but at this point...looks like any accumulations would be minor. Better chance for snow will come during the day Wednesday into Wednesday night as low pressure passes offshore. Not looking like anything too earth shaking at this point but several inches of snow will be possible in southern and coastal zones. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions outside of the mountains tonight with winds diminishing this evening. A cold front will move across NH and ME Saturday morning with sct snow showers and squalls along with gusty winds once again. Local brief IFR possible in any squalls. Otherwise, VFR expected Saturday afternoon and night. Long Term... VFR Sunday through Tuesday. MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsby possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA remains in effect through at least Saturday evening. A few low end gale gusts will be possible through this time as well, but should not be widespread enough for gale issuance at this time. Long Term... SCA`s may be needed for Sunday and late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ151-153. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Cempa SHORT TERM...Ekster LONG TERM...Sinsabaugh is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.