Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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523
FXHW60 PHFO 071311
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
311 AM HST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak cold front will stall and dissipate across the central
islands later today and continue to bring persistent showers along
and ahead of its frontal boundary, along with breezy northeast
winds statewide. Breezy trades with periodic showers will continue
into next week. An upper level low developing southeast of the
Big Island this weekend may help to enhance trade wind showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite and radar imagery show a weak front draped across the
central islands, with persistent showers streaming in along and
ahead of the frontal boundary. Breezy to locally strong northeast
winds are filling in behind the front along with strengthening
northeast trades ahead of it, the latter of which will continue
to deliver persistent showers to the central islands and the Big
Island through tonight. Most of these showers are passing over
the island terrain, bringing wet conditions across windward,
mauka and leeward areas. So far these showers have been benign,
but if they continue to train over the same areas and bring
persistent moderate to heavy rainfall, localized flooding will be
possible.

The leading edge of the front is now moving into Maui County early
this morning and is expected to dissipated later today. The focus
for showers will also shift slightly southeast along with the
front and then remnant moisture will continue to filter in across
the central part of the state on the breezy northeasterly trades
through the rest of the week.

Models show an upper low will dig south of the Big Island and then
lift northwest along the island chain late this week and into the
weekend. However, available moisture may be the limiting factor
in shower development through the weekend and into early next
week, making pinpointing where showers fall across the island
chain a bit tricky. But as pockets of atmospheric moisture move
through, increased instability from the low aloft may help to
enhance trade wind showers this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
A shallow band of moisture accompanying a cold front nearing Maui
County this morning, combined with gusty northeast winds, will
continue to generate showery conditions over windward slopes from
Oahu to the Big Island. These conditions support AIRMET Sierra
for mountain obscuration remaining in effect for these windward
areas, potentially persisting through a good portion of the day as
this boundary stalls. Drier and more stable air trailing the
front has moved over Kauai, which will limit cloud/shower
coverage.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect due to low-level turbulence over
and downwind of terrain. Moderate turbulence between FL250 and
FL350 associated with an upper trough is also expected through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
A weakening front will stall out and gradually dissipate in the
vicinity of Maui County through Friday. High pressure building in
behind the front to the distant northwest, will lift northeast
and merge with a new high over the weekend. Trade winds will
remain steady at fresh to strong levels through early next week,
with some of the windier channels seeing near Gale force winds at
times. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for most waters
through 6 PM Friday. The SCA will likely need to be expanded to
include the typically windier areas around Maui and the Big Island
through early next week.

Surf along north and west-facing shores will hold steady today,
with the current north-northwest swell then slowly lowering
through Friday. A new long-period northwest swell will arrive on
Friday, keeping surf up through Saturday, before slowly lowering
on Sunday. A pair of back to back moderate sized long-period
northwest swells will arrive during the early to middle part of
next week, with the latter swell potentially bringing advisory
level surf to north and west facing shores on Wednesday.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain elevated and choppy
through the middle of next week due to the strong trade winds.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain small and near the
seasonal average through the middle of next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...Gibbs
MARINE...Jelsema