Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 020637
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
837 PM HST Fri Jul 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of the state will keep breezy to locally
windy conditions in place through the 4th of July Holiday weekend.
Fairly typical trade wind weather will prevail through Saturday,
with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, with the eastern
islands seeing more showers than the western end of the state. An
upper level trough will pass over the islands Saturday night
and Sunday, bringing an uptick in showers to windward and mauka
areas, and sending a few more showers into leeward communities. A
more typical trade wind weather pattern is then expected Sunday
night through next Friday, with a gradual easing of the trades
Tuesday through late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1031 mb high is centered around 1100
miles north of Honolulu, and is driving breezy to locally windy
trades across the island chain this evening. Infrared satellite
imagery shows low clouds moving into windward slopes and coasts,
with some high clouds streaming over the state as well. Mostly
cloudy conditions prevail in most windward areas, with partly
cloudy skies in most leeward locales. Radar imagery shows
scattered showers moving into windward areas of Maui County and
the Big Island, isolated showers over windward Kauai and Oahu,
and a few showers over leeward Big Island. Elsewhere, mainly rain
free conditions prevail. Main short term focus revolves around
trade wind trends and rain chances.

High pressure north of the islands will keep breezy to locally
windy conditions in place through Independence Day. Winds will be
close to advisory levels at times over the typically windy areas
of Maui County and the Big Island through the 4th of July Holiday
weekend. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for these areas through
6 AM Saturday, and will reassess the need for an extension with
the morning forecast package. A couple fronts will slide southward
well to the north of the islands, and this should result in an
easing of the trades beginning Tuesday, with a further easing into
the moderate range expected Wednesday through next Friday.

As for the remaining weather details, a trough aloft will approach
the islands from the southeast tonight and Saturday, focusing the
deeper moisture over the eastern end of the state. This should
keep a showery trade wind pattern in place for the Big Island and
to a lesser extent Maui, with drier trade wind weather expected
across Oahu and Kauai. The trough aloft will dampen out as it
lifts northwestward through the islands Saturday night and Sunday,
but will drag some deeper moisture into the western islands as it
does. As a result, we should see an increase trade wind showers
statewide. The brunt of the shower activity should continue to
focus over windward and mauka areas, with a few more showers
reaching leeward communities. Additionally, conditions may
destabilize enough to allow for a thunderstorm or two Sunday
afternoon on the Big Island. Weak troughing aloft is forecast to
linger over the islands Sunday night through late next week, but
drier boundary layer conditions will overspread the state. This
should bring a return of more typical summertime trade wind
conditions with passing light showers moving through the islands,
particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a
stray shower reaching leeward areas from time to time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong high pressure north of the state will bring breezy to
locally windy easterly trades through the forecast period. This
will concentrate most shower activity along the windward coasts
and slopes...especially for Maui and Hawaii counties. Expect
periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility associated with any of the
heavier showers. Isolated activity elsewhere.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence
downwind of the higher terrain of all islands.

&&

.MARINE...
Robust high pressure far north of the area will sustain fresh to
strong trade winds across most of the state`s coastal waters into
next week. Winds are expected to reach 30 knots, or near gale
force, in the Alenuihaha Channel and the waters south of the Big
Island. Threshold seas of 10 feet are also likely in those zones
through Saturday. Currently, a Small Craft Advisory is posted for
all coastal waters through Sunday afternoon. Winds will likely
stay elevated across most coastal waters into Monday, then scaling
back to the typically windier waters around Maui County and the
Big Island Tuesday into Wednesday.

No significant swells are expected along all shores into next
week. The strong trades will support rough and choppy surf along
east facing shores, but surf will likely stay below the advisory
threshold of 10 feet. The current small south swell will continue
to lower. Only very small, medium period, background south and
southeast swells are expected into next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-
Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Big Island Interior-
Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley
North-Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-South
Haleakala-Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Kinel


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