Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
190 FXHW60 PHFO 020136 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 336 PM HST Tue Jul 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Light to moderate trades prevail across the Hawaiian islands as a surface trough persists to the northwest. The trough will exit Wednesday strengthening the trades through the remainder of the week. Mostly dry conditions expected with any incoming showers expected to impact the windward areas at night. && .DISCUSSION... Light to moderate trades prevail across the Hawaiian islands as a surface trough persists to the northwest. Mostly dry conditions persist around the state with clouds mainly focused over the leeward Big Island this afternoon. An incoming batch of clouds and showers will impact windward Big Island and Maui overnight, but rainfall amounts will be light. Otherwise, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast. The trough will exit Wednesday strengthening the trades through the remainder of the week with mostly dry and stable conditions. Any showers that do blow in with the trade winds will be light and confined to the windward slopes. Trades will strengthen further Friday into next week, becoming breezy to localized strong at times into early next week. The conjunction of drier conditions with these stronger trades could elevate fire weather concerns. While this is still several days out, and confidence remains low at the moment, conditions will be monitored by future shifts leading up to the weekend and into next week. && .AVIATION... Light to moderate trade winds will continue through tonight, then strengthen to moderate to locally breezy on Wednesday. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, but some sea breeze clouds remain possible in sheltered leeward areas through this evening. Expect mainly VFR conditions, with brief periods of MVFR under passing showers. No AIRmets are in effect at this time and none are expected through the forecast period. && .MARINE... High pressure will gradually build far north of the state as the weak trough north of the state dissipates. The high will then strengthen Friday into the weekend with fresh to strong trade winds expected by Saturday. Winds are expected to further strengthen early next week with widespread strong trade winds possible. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) could return as early as Thursday, but more likely on Friday for the windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island. The current south swell peaked earlier today and will slowly decline through the rest of the week. Surf heights should still hold near the summer time average (5 feet) till around Thursday before dropping Friday into the weekend. Along east facing shores, surf will continue to remain smaller than average due to the lack of strong trades. An increase of rough and choppy surf is expected this weekend into next week as the trade winds strengthen. No significant swells are expected through next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Foster AVIATION...Ahue MARINE...Kino